Computer Picks for Elite Eight Games Today – A.I. Best Bets on March 28

• Illinois aims to cover the spread against Iowa in South Region final
• Sharp money backs underdog Purdue against Arizona in West Region final
• Our A.I. model has made its March Madness picks for Saturday, March 28

Nobody remembers who reaches the Elite Eight. The Final Four? That’s different. That’s legacy-definining.

Tonight in the South Region and West Region finals, four teams teams will try to realize their dream.

In the South, No. 9 seed Iowa tries to continue its startling run against No. 3 seed Illinois. Tip-off is at 6:09 pm, ET, from Houston.

In the chalky West Region, top-seed Arizona takes on No. 2 seed Purdue at 8:49 pm, ET, from San Jose, Calif.

All four teams have a Final Four history. Most recently, Purdue lost the 2024 NCAA Tournament championship game, one of its three trips to the Final Four. Arizona has been to the Final Four four times, winning it all in 1997. Illinois has been to the Final Four five times, but not since losing the 2005 championship game to UNC. Iowa has made three trips to the Final Four, but not since 1980.

Who gets back tonight?

I asked Sportradar’s proprietary A.I. model to generate its best spread bet and total pick for both Elite Eight games tonight. The table summarizes the picks, which I line-shopped across all available sportsbooks and prediction sites.

A.I. March Madness Picks & Computer Predictions

#9 Iowa vs #3 Illinois (South Region) Picks & Analysis

The Picks: Illinois -6.5 (-110 at FanDuel) | OVER 138.5 ($0.49 per contract / +104 at Kalshi)

Illinois’ offense is rolling. Boasting a 27-8 overall record, the Illini are riding a three-game winning streak into the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. They match up against head coach Ben McCollum and the Hawkeyes in a game that will be heavily dictated by tempo and points in the paint.

ATS Analysis: We are laying the points with Illinois (-6.5). While the moneyline market is firmly in the favorite’s corner—with over 80% of tickets and 75% of the handle banking on them to win outright—our data supports the chalk on the spread. Illinois’ ability to generate high-percentage looks around the rim will allow them to outpace a scrappy Iowa defense.

Total Analysis: We are backing the OVER 138.5. Public money and sharp handles rarely align this heavily (over 91% of the stake) without merit, but we do not base our wagers solely on ticket counts. Both offenses have been exceptionally efficient from beyond the arc during their respective three-game streaks. Expect a high-possession game script that easily clears the 138.5 threshold at prediction site Kalshi.

This contract is trading for $0.49 per at Kalshi, which equates to +104 odds. A $10 investment in these contracts would produce an $11 profit if the teams combine for 139 or more points. If you don’t already have an account at Kalshi, click “PREDICT” in the graphic below to claim SBD’s exclusive Kalshi referral code. (If you already use Kalshi, try out SBD’s Novig promo code or check out our full list of prediction markets.)

Prediction Markets

Iowa vs Illinois

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Kalshi

Illinois

73%

Iowa

29%

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#2 Purdue vs #1 Arizona (West Region) Picks & Analysis

The Picks: Purdue +6.5 (-115 at Bet365) | OVER 152.5 ($0.51 per / -104 odds at Kalshi)

ATS Analysis: Grabbing the points with Purdue (+6.5) presents massive value. The betting splits tell a compelling story: while the general public is taking Arizona, sharper money is finding a home with the underdog. A 10% discrepancy between ticket count (15.65%) and total handle (26.01%) indicates respected money is backing Purdue to keep the margin tight. Beyond the market splits, taking a top-tier team riding a seven-game win streak as an underdog of six or more points is a highly profitable angle. Purdue’s inherent edge in rebounding and second-chance points provides a steady floor.

Total Analysis: We are locking in the OVER 152.5 in what projects to be a fast-paced battle. Similar to the early game, the market is overwhelmingly forecasting a shootout, driving 87% of the tickets and 93.4% of the total stake toward the over. Statistically, when two teams with a combined win percentage above .850 meet in the postseason, their effective field goal percentage (eFG%) typically spikes due to elite offensive execution. With two offensive juggernauts pushing the tempo and attacking the glass, expect plenty of fireworks to send this past the total.

This Kalshi contract is trading for $0.51 per, which equates to -104 odds, making it more valuable than traditional sportsbook lines. A $10 investment in this Over 152.5 contract would produce a $10 profit if the teams combine for 153 or more points.

Prediction Markets

Purdue vs Arizona

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Kalshi

Arizona

70%

Purdue

31%

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