Expert Picks & Best Bets for Suns vs Thunder Game 1

• The OKC Thunder are massive -1000 moneyline favorites in Game 1 vs the Phoenix Suns
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• Read below for the latest Angels vs Yankees odds and my expert prediction

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It was a big deal for the Phoenix Suns (45-37, 20-21 away) to make their way back the NBA Playoffs. Now, they face the real deal in Round 1: the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder (64-18, 34-7 home), looking to defend their title.

Not surprisingly the Suns are massive underdogs in the NBA odds in for Game 1 of the best-of-7 series, as they’re facing the team with the best NBA Championship odds.

Tip-off is scheduled Sunday at 3:30pm ET at what should be a raucous Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, with the game being broadcast by ABC.

Suns vs Thunder Odds

The graphic above shows the best available odds, which are subject to change

Oklahoma City is a massive -1000 moneyline favorite and FanDuel, and are a healthy 13.5-point favorite at DraftKings.

A Phoenix upset is enticing, but even +700 odds at bet365 don’t show just how big of a mismatch this is. At BetMGM, the Suns get a full point more on spread at 14.5 points, which pays out at -118 odds.

The total is set at 215.5 points on both sides, with the Over paying at -105 odds, and the Under at -110.

Suns vs Thunder Expert Picks and Prediction

• Pick: Thunder -13.5 (-119 at DraftKings)

Phoenix looked good in their 111-96 win over Golden State to clinch the eighth seed, but the level up from where they were on Friday night to what they will be stepping into will be a whole different beast.

At least they enter with a different wrinkle in their lineup: the emergence of Jalen Green as a legitimate running mate next to Devin Booker. Green shined in both play-in games, averaging 35.5 points on 57.1% shooting from the field, and 47.6% from 3-point range.

That’s covered up a pair of not-so-Book performances. He was just 5-for-12 for 20 points, with eight dimes and six assists against the Warriors, after scoring 22 on 7-for-17 against Portland. Book also missed all six 3-point attempts in both games.

Both will likely have to be humming to keep Phoenix in it: not including a dud of a regular season finale with everyone sitting in a Phoenix win, the Suns had just one win in four regular season meetings, and Booker needed to hit a 3-pointer to seal a 108-105 W.

OKC is a juggernaut, and are one of the truly complete teams in the NBA. They finished fifth in scoring at 119 points per game, but that’s a cruise control figure, as there were numerous games the starters sat entire fourth quarters of blowouts.

Defensively, they own the top defensive rating in the league, and allow the second-fewest points at 107.9 points per contest.

They boast the reigning MVP in Shai-Gilgeous Alexander, who’s in the NBA MVP odds for a second consecutive trophy. He’s surrounded by a deep roster with plenty of wing and interior defense, and enough shooting to allow SGA to work at the top of the key in single isolations.

The Thunder have also dominated the Suns at home. Not including the mean-nothing Suns win in OKC in Game 82, the Thunder have won each of the last five at home, with four of those wins by at least 16 points.

Phoenix sees the beast up close Sunday, and it’s not going to be pretty.

Suns vs Thunder Best Bets

Pick 1: Jalen Green OVER 18.5 Points (-105 at bet365)

Jalen Green hasn’t faced the Thunder since joining the Suns, but he couldn’t be hotter facing this elite defense. One thing he won’t be is bashful: Green hoisted a whopping 49 shots over the last two play-in games.

With plenty of attention (and top defenders) committed to Booker, Green will get his opportunity and should top this generous line. In his last 11 games, he’s scored at least 19 points nine times.

Pick 2: Gilgeous Alexander OVER 30.5 Points (-105 at bet365)

There’s always a risk that this bet dies a slow death with SGA on the bench in the fourth with the Thunder in a runaway. But I think SGA puts in the work in Game 1 to set the tone for the Thunder, and to show that ex-teammate and notorious pest Dillon Brooks won’t affect his flow.

He’s got plenty of good scoring vibes against Phoenix, dropping 31+ in seven of the last 10 head-to-head matchups.