A.I. NBA Picks for All 3 Playoff Games Today (April 20)

• Monday features a NBA playoff games
• I have generated ATS and O/U picks for each game from our internal A.I. model
• See today’s top NBA playoff picks against the spread and over/unders

Cleveland, New York and Denver will try to take a commanding 2-0 lead in their respective best-of-7 NBA playoff series tonight.

Toronto, Atlanta and Minnesota are hoping to salvage a split before heading home. (Be sure to track the NBA Championship odds throughout the playoffs.)

Tonight’s action tips off Toronto at Cleveland at 7 pm, ET. New York hosts Atlanta at 8 pm, ET, and Denver hosts Minnesota at 10:30 pm, ET. The favorites are drawing early confidence across the board.

I asked our internal A.I. tools to analyze each Game 2 and provide the best bets ATS and Over/Under.

A.I. Picks for Spread & Total Today

Best available odds on April 20 and subject to change

Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers Odds & Picks

Series: Cleveland leads 1-0

Tip/TV: 7 pm, ET, Peacock/NBCSN

The Cavaliers protected their home court in Game 1, emerging with a 126-113 victory. Cleveland’s offense was highly efficient, shooting 54.3% from the floor and 50.0% from beyond the arc. Donovan Mitchell led the charge with a game-high 32 points, while veteran guard James Harden orchestrated the offense with a double-double (22 points, 10 assists). For the Toronto Raptors, the offense shot a respectable 52.0% as a team, led by RJ Barrett (24 points) and Scottie Barnes (21 points, 7 assists). However, Toronto ultimately lost the turnover battle (17 to 15), surrendering 22 points off those giveaways.

Cleveland enters Game 2 as an 8.5-point favorite. The public is heavily aligned on the home team, with the Cavaliers commanding 68.5% of the spread tickets and a lopsided 72.2% of the ATS stake (trending upward by 12.5%). Bettors are leaning into Cleveland’s reliable recent form, as they boast a 4-1 ATS record over their last 5 games against top-10 scoring defenses. Conversely, the Raptors hold a 2-4 ATS mark in their last 6 games against opponents with a winning record.

Additionally, the total presents a compelling data-backed angle. The Over has cashed in 100% of Cleveland’s last 4 games when positioned as the betting favorite. Toronto’s recent pace aligns with this scoring expectation, as the Over has hit in 75.0% (3 of 4) of their last outings. The Cavaliers will push the tempo and cover the spread in a high-scoring affair.

The Spread Pick: Cavaliers -8.5 (-105 at theScore)

The Total Pick: Over 222.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Atlanta Hawks @ New York Knicks Odds & Picks

Series: New York leads 1-0

Tip/TV: 8 pm, ET, NBC/Peacock

The New York Knicks drew first blood with a 113-102 victory, suffocating the opposition on the glass with a massive 54-51 rebounding advantage. Jalen Brunson operated as the engine for New York, dropping 28 points and 7 assists. Karl-Anthony Towns contributed 25 points and 8 rebounds, while Josh Hart added his signature hustle with 14 boards. The Atlanta Hawks relied heavily on CJ McCollum (26 points) and Jalen Johnson (23 points, 7 rebounds), but struggled from beyond the arc, hitting just 38.0% of their 3-point attempts compared to New York’s blistering 48.0%.

This matchup provides a fascinating dynamic. The Knicks opened as 6.5-point favorites, but the line has since ticked down to -5.5. A staggering 81.1% of the spread stake is backing New York, and 95.3% of the moneyline stake is laying the juice. When a line drops despite seeing over 80% of the money on the favorite, it is a classic indicator of sharp money hitting the underdog. Still, Atlanta is a dismal 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog, while New York is an exceptional 7-1 straight up at home following a win over their last 8 contests.

As for the total, situational trends point firmly to a slow, halfcourt, grind-it-out battle. The Under is hitting at an 83.3% clip (5-1) in the Knicks’ last 6 games coming off a win, indicating their defense tightens up considerably when playing with series momentum.

The Spread Pick: Knicks -5.5 (-110 at Bet365)

The Total Pick: Under 217.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets Odds & Picks

Series: Denver leads 1-0

Tip/TV: 10:30 pm, ET, NBC/Peacock

The reigning heavyweight battle of the Western Conference tipped off with the Denver Nuggets taking a 116-105 Game 1 win. Nikola Jokić delivered a masterclass, recording a triple-double with 25 points, 13 rebounds, and 11 assists while shooting 57.9% from the field. Jamal Murray was equally lethal, pouring in a game-high 30 points. The Minnesota Timberwolves saw Anthony Edwards log 22 points, 9 rebounds, and 7 assists, but struggled to find rhythm from deep, shooting just 32.0% from three-point range. Denver’s massive 30-14 edge in free throws made was too much to overcome.

Denver is positioned as a 6.5-point home favorite. The Nuggets are commanding 66.8% of the spread tickets and 64.4% of the ATS stake, which has seen a 7.2% upward trend. Denver is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against opponents with a winning record. Minnesota is currently slumping for bettors, sitting at 1-3 ATS over their last 4 games. The total is also drawing heavy action on the Over (81.5% of tickets, 79.2% of stake).

From a totals perspective, the altitude and offensive efficiency of these squads make the Over highly appealing. The Over has hit in 83.3% (5 of 6) of the Nuggets’ last matchups against opponents with a winning record. Expect a high-possession battle that clears this number.

The Spread Pick: Nuggets -6.5 (-110 at Bet365)

The Total Pick: Over 230.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds as of April 20, 2026 and subject to change

Looking across today’s board, the Cavaliers stand out as the biggest favorites, laying 8.5 points at home against the Raptors following their decisive Game 1 victory. The tightest matchup belongs to the Knicks and Hawks, where New York is favored by just 5.5 points after sharp action moved the line. Meanwhile, the Timberwolves and Nuggets feature the slate’s highest expected scoring output with a lofty total set at 231.5.

Vig-Free (Normalized) Probabilities

To find the true implied probability of each team winning outright, we must remove the sportsbook’s built-in vigorish from the moneyline odds. Here are the normalized, vig-free win probabilities for today’s slate:

• Raptors vs. Cavaliers: Cleveland (-400) carries a massive 76.19% true probability of winning Game 2, leaving Toronto (+300) with a 23.81% chance of pulling off the road upset.
• Hawks vs. Knicks: New York (-238) holds a true win probability of 67.50%. Conversely, Atlanta (+195) sits at a 32.50% normalized chance to steal a victory.
• Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: Denver (-286) boasts a 70.66% vig-free probability of defending their home floor, while Minnesota (+225) enters with a 29.34% chance to even the series.

Moneyline Payout Scenarios

If you prefer betting teams to win straight up on the moneyline, here is what a standard $10 wager returns for every team today:

• Toronto Raptors (+300): A $10 winning bet yields $30.00 in profit, returning a total of $40.00.
• Cleveland Cavaliers (-400): A $10 winning bet yields $2.50 in profit, returning a total of $12.50.
• Atlanta Hawks (+195): A $10 winning bet yields $19.50 in profit, returning a total of $29.50.
• New York Knicks (-238): A $10 winning bet yields $4.20 in profit, returning a total of $14.20.
• Minnesota Timberwolves (+225): A $10 winning bet yields $22.50 in profit, returning a total of $32.50.
• Denver Nuggets (-286): A $10 winning bet yields $3.50 in profit, returning a total of $13.50.

Injury Report & Lineup Implications

Here is the comprehensive injury landscape for today’s games:

Toronto Raptors vs. Cleveland Cavaliers: Toronto’s backcourt depth could be significantly compromised today. The Raptors have listed dynamic guard Immanuel Quickley as questionable for Game 2 due to a hamstring injury. If Quickley sits, Toronto will be forced to stretch its rotation to manufacture halfcourt offense, making it difficult to keep pace with Cleveland’s high-powered attack and solidifying the Cavaliers -8.5 spread value.

Atlanta Hawks vs. New York Knicks: For the hometown Knicks, elite two-way forward OG Anunoby is officially listed as questionable with a knee injury. Anunoby is the linchpin of New York’s perimeter defense; his absence would validate the sharp money already backing Atlanta. Meanwhile, the Hawks are dealing with a heavily depleted frontcourt. Center Jock Landale remains out (ankle), and versatile big man Onyeka Okongwu is questionable (knee). If Okongwu is sidelined, Atlanta will be desperately thin inside.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets: The most significant injury news comes out of the Western Conference. Minnesota superstar Anthony Edwards is surprisingly listed as questionable due to “injury management.” Should Edwards be ruled out, the Timberwolves’ offensive production would crater, which would likely cause the 6.5-point spread to inflate further in Denver’s direction and severely threaten the 231.5 total. Denver remains without rotational wing Peyton Watson (hamstring), though their starting five remains fully intact.

Final Thoughts & Top Betting Angles

As we finalize our handicap for tonight’s First Round playoff slate, a clear narrative has emerged: The betting public is heavily invested in the home favorites and expecting offensive fireworks across the board. However, navigating the postseason requires a delicate balance of trusting reliable data while identifying where the general public might be overreacting to Game 1 results.

By filtering out the noise and zeroing in on sharp money distribution and situational trends, we have isolated the top plays for tonight’s action.

1. The Contrarian Edge: Hawks vs. Knicks Under 217.5 (-110 at DraftKings): Fading a completely lopsided public consensus often yields long-term profit. A staggering 93.6% of all total tickets are blindly backing the Over in this matchup. Playoff basketball inevitably slows down as series progress and defensive rotations tighten. Factor in the injury uncertainty surrounding key offensive pieces and the Knicks’ exceptional ability to grind out slow-paced victories at home, and the Under becomes the sharpest contrarian play on the board.

2. The Momentum Spread: Cleveland Cavaliers -8.5 (-105 at theScore): While laying nearly double digits in the playoffs is a daunting proposition, Cleveland currently commands 72.2% of the ATS stake, backed by a massive 12.5% upward surge in handle hitting the Cavaliers. With Toronto potentially compromised in the backcourt, following the late wave of cash on the home favorite is a highly correlated, data-backed angle.

3. The Altitude Shootout: Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Over 230.5 (-110 at DraftKings): Unlike the Knicks’ total, the high-scoring projection in Denver is fundamentally justified by the data. The Nuggets are operating with surgical precision, forcing Minnesota to push the tempo. The betting splits show strong, steady alignment between tickets (81.5%) and stake (79.2%) backing the Over. This perfectly matches Denver’s offensive efficiency and their 83.3% trend of soaring past totals against quality opponents.