Astros vs Orioles Predictions & Props to Bet on Apr 30
By Eric Rosales in MLB Baseball
Published:
- The Baltimore Orioles are slight favorites in their opener of their doubleheader vs Houston Thursday
- Baltimore has just five wins in their last 13 games
- Read below for the my Astros vs Orioles, prediction, prop picks and latest odds
Two struggling squads will play two on Thursday, as the Baltimore Orioles host the Houston Astros.
Inclement weather forced the postponement on Wednesday, setting up the double dip that could finally be a jumpstart for a pair of teams trying to ignite their season.
For Game 1, the MLB odds like the Orioles behind starter Chris Bassitt, who will square off against Peter Lambert.
First pitch goes at 12:35pm ET from Oriole Park at Camden Yards, with MLB TV providing the broadcast coverage.
Astros vs Orioles Odds
The graphic above shows the best available odds, which are subject to change
FanDuel currently lists the hometown O’s as slight moneyline favorites at -118, while Houston sits at +105 at Caesars to win outright.
Interestingly, while runlines usually stay relatively static, this matchup has seen a drastic flip. Baltimore originally opened as the -1.5 (+160) runline favorites, but heavy movement has since shifted them to +1.5 (-180) runline underdogs at DraftKings.
The primary line remains locked at 9, with -102 odds for the Over at DK, and the Under at -115 at FD.
Astros vs Orioles Predictions & Picks
- Best Bet: Astros ML (+100 at DraftKings)
It’s been a rough stretch for the Astros, who enter Thursday with just five wins in their last 21, as they sit in dead last in the AL West.
Houston hands the ball to Peter Lambert, who has been a tremendous bright spot in an otherwise bleak start for their rotation.
The righty has been dominant, utilizing elite swing-and-miss stuff to generate a massive 13.09 K/9. His 1.85 FIP suggests he has been even better than his baseline numbers indicate, allowing him to pitch reasonably deep into games.
Lambert is coming off his best start of the year, throwing six scoreless innings of 3-hit ball, while striking out eight in a 2-0 win over the Guardians.
His counterpart, Chris Bassitt is searching for answers.
The veteran righty is allowing far too much traffic on the base paths, yielding a .344 opponent batting average alongside a bloated 5.48 BB/9 walk rate. If Bassitt cannot find his command early and induce weak contact, he risks exposing his bullpen long before the middle innings.
Bassitt is coming off a win, but it was his offense that propped him up, as he was drilled for eight hits and five earned runs, including taken yard twice. The 37-year-old had just three strikeouts against two walks. It’s the third time in five starts that he’s allowed at least four earned runs in a game this season.
Despite an underwhelming record, the Astros are raking on the road, and will be a test for Bassitt. Houston boasts the second-best away batting average (.277) and OPS (.794) in baseball.
However, any goodwill built by their lineup could be undone by a struggling pitching staff. Houston currently ranks dead last in the majors with a disastrous 5.96 team ERA. They are allowing opposing batters to constantly crowd the basepaths, spelling major trouble against an opponent that thrives on hard contact.
The O’s average an imposing 89.6 mph exit velocity at home (7th in the league) and hit the ball out of the park at a top-tier rate of 1.44 home runs per game.
But Baltimore isn’t playing well either, with just five wins in their last 13. Look for Lamber to take advantage and stack solid starts back-to-back.
Astros vs Orioles Props
Yordan Alvarez to record an RBI (+110 on FanDuel): Alvarez averages 1.3 hits and 0.367 home runs per game while sporting a massive 1.199 OPS. Getting plus money for Houston’s primary run producer to drive in a run is phenomenal value.
Chris Bassitt UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-154 on FanDuel): Bassitt is a pitch-to-contact veteran who relies on weak ground balls rather than overpowering stuff, making this a high-probability under.
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Sports Writer & Editor
Having worked in and around sports since 1997, Eric is truly a knowledgeable expert. The two-time journalism grad specializes in all things NBA and NFL. From TSN.ca to CTV's Olympic Broadcast Consortium, Eric's work has appeared in local and national publications alike.