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Will Fernando Mendoza Start for Raiders? See Week 1 QB Odds for Las Vegas
By Ryan Potts in NFL News
Published:
- Las Vegas took Fernando Mendoza with the top pick in the draft
- The Raiders also brought in Kirk Cousins
- Continue reading for starting odds for Week 1
The Las Vegas Raiders are turning the page on a putrid 2025 season. Both of their starting quarterbacks – Geno Smith (15 starts) and Kenny Pickett (two starts) – have found new homes. The Raiders have retained Aidan O’Connell, who appeared in one game in 2025, but the top two quarterbacks on the depth charts are new to Sin City.
In April’s overhaul, the Raiders signed Kirk Cousins out of free agency and drafted Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza with the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft. Cousins would be the starter if the season started tomorrow, but Mendoza has the summer to wriggle into the starting job.
Keep reading for a look at the Raiders’ Week 1 quarterback odds, balancing Kirk Cousins, Fernando Mendoza, and Aidan O’Connell.
Las Vegas’ Week 1 Quarterback Odds
Kirk Cousins leads the way both on unofficial depth charts and in Kalshi odds, trading at 75¢. Fernando Mendoza is in second place, trading at 37¢. Not to be forgotten, Aidan O’Connell is trading at 8¢, a clear longshot.
As of Wednesday, May 6th at 10:00 pm ET at Kalshi. Click “Predict” above to claim SBD’s Kalshi referral code.
Kirk Cousins
Signed on April 2, Cousins is the leader in the clubhouse to be the Raiders’ Week 1 starter. Cousins overlapped with head coach Klint Kubiak for three seasons in Minnesota. In 2019 and 2020, Kubiak was Minnesota’s quarterbacks coach before ascending to the offensive coordinator role in 2021. Cousins made two Pro Bowls and had a 105.0 passer rating in 47 starts under Kubiak.
Cousins’ age and 2023 Achilles injury have begun to take their toll on his career. After a sturdy run in Minnesota, Cousins has been below average the last two seasons with the Falcons. In 2024, Cousins led the NFL with 16 interceptions despite being benched late in the season. He had a passer rating below 90.0 and a QBR below 50.0 in both seasons as a Falcon.
Cousins is the highest floor option for the Raiders while being the second-highest ceiling. Cousins has 174 NFL games under his belt with 167 starts for three different teams. While a win-loss record is far from the most reliable metric, Cousins does have a career 88-77-2 record, posting a winning record in his time in Minnesota and Atlanta. With an NFL win total set at 5.5 wins, Cousins might be the best bet for the Raiders to clear that low mark.
Fernando Mendoza
The No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, Mendoza elevated to superstar levels with a magnificent 2025 season. Mendoza led Indiana to an undefeated National Championship season, winning the Heisman. He played 36 games in three collegiate seasons, tossing 71 touchdowns and 22 interceptions.
Mendoza is in the middle of the pack in terms of college experience. He notably did feature in two different offenses, so he has shown a propensity to adapt – one positive that could help him start Week 1. In the Raiders’ history, Derek Carr is the only Week 1 quarterback starter (2014). Previous No. 1 pick JaMarcus Russell did not start until Week 17 of the 2007 season.
The last six No. 1 pick quarterbacks started Week 1, including Cam Ward last season. The battle with Cousins has an additional wrinkle because Cousins played (at a Pro Bowl level) under Kubiak previously, but recent history has been slanted toward the No. 1 pick since Kyler Murray in 2019.
Mendoza offers the highest ceiling and the second-best floor of the group. Barring disaster, Mendoza will be the long-term starter in Las Vegas. It is just a matter of time before Klint Kubiak breaks the glass and inserts the 2025 Heisman into the lineup. Even without the guaranteed starting job, Mendoza is second in Offensive Rookie of the Year odds.
Aidan O’Connell
A fourth-round pick in 2023, O’Connell has played in 21 games in his NFL career. He has 17 starts, compiling a 7-10 record. He was Las Vegas’ primary starting in 2023, leading the Raiders to a 5-5 record with 12 passing touchdowns and seven interceptions.
O’Connell is the closest option to being an “incumbent,” but with a new coaching staff in place, the incumbent label does not hold much sway. Last season, O’Connell threw just 22 passes, all in a relief effort of Kenny Pickett in Week 18. On a technicality, O’Connell did lead a fourth-quarter comeback and game-winning drive to knock off the Chiefs.
O’Connell is likely the lowest floor and lowest ceiling option in the Raiders’ room. His value is his rapport with the likes of Tre Tucker and Brock Bowers.
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Ryan Potts is a veteran football and baseball content creator. He was previously a credentialed NFL media member, covering the draft, bombine, and Super Bowl. He has been featured on Atlanta sports talk radio and Arizona student radio. Ryan is a journalism graduate from the University of Arizona.
