NASCAR All-Star Race Predictions, Odds & Start Time at Dover (May 17)
By Phil Bobbitt in Racing
Published:
- Green flag drops at 1 p.m. ET on FS1 as NASCAR unleashes a three-stage All-Star Race format that feels legally indistinguishable from a fever dream.
- Ryan Blaney flashed elite long-run speed in practice, and Penske teammates were fast across the board. Well, mostly across the board. Joey Logano still exists.
- Read below for NASCAR All-Star Race predictions, odds and start time at Dover (May 17).
The NASCAR Cup Series All-Star Race format appears to have been created by somebody playing Mario Kart after three energy drinks and a minor head injury.
Sunday’s exhibition race at Dover Motor Speedway will feature 350 laps split into three segments:
Segment 1: 75 laps
Segment 2: 75 laps
Segment 3: 200 laps
The field inversion after Segment 1 flips the top 26 finishers because apparently NASCAR executives woke up one morning and decided the ideal racing product involved introducing chaos directly into the bloodstream.
Then, after all that nonsense, the final 200-lap feature trims the field to 26 drivers based on average finish across the opening two segments.
Simple enough, right?
Perfect. Glad we cleared that up.
NASCAR All-Star Race Start Time
Green flag drops at 1:00 p.m. ET on FS1.
NASCAR All-Star Race Odds
Odds available at theScore Bet as of 12:50 a.m. ET on Sunday, May 17. Denny Hamlin starts on the pole and is the NASCAR All-Star Race favorite at +350, implying a 22.2% win probability. Shop the best sportsbook promos for the top All-Star Race odds.
Now, before we get into the betting card, it’s important to acknowledge one key variable that Vegas has not properly priced into the market: I will once again be attending the race in person.
Should a late caution become necessary for outright positions, I am fully prepared to launch either a banana peel or green turtle shell onto the racing surface depending on how the afternoon unfolds.
We’re team players at SpeedwaySteve2 HQ.
NASCAR All-Star Race Predictions
Outright Winner
Ryan Blaney (+1100, FanDuel)
We already grabbed positions on Tyler Reddick and Bubba Wallace earlier this week, but we’re rounding out the outright card with some additional exposure on Blaney.
We absolutely loved what we saw from the Team Penske camp during Saturday’s extended practice session.
We graded Blaney’s practice speed somewhere between second and fourth overall, depending on which model you consult inside the increasingly sleep-deprived walls of SpeedwaySteve2 HQ. Penske teammate Austin Cindric also showed strong pace, and fast teammates remain one of our favorite speed signals in the garage area. Well…fast teammates besides Joey Logano, because frankly, we’re not particularly worried about him this weekend.
Blaney ranks second overall in one of our primary models and third in the other, which is generally the kind of spreadsheet agreement we like before voluntarily setting money on fire in the betting markets.
We’re also not particularly concerned about the deeper starting position.
With field inversions, average finish metrics, and the complete carnival-game structure of this event all influencing who reaches the final 200-lap segment, raw starting spot simply matters less than usual.
What matters is speed.
And we believe Blaney has enough of it to win this race from virtually anywhere in the main event field.
Matchups
Ryan Blaney over Chase Elliott (-125, theScore Bet)
Brad Keselowski over Ross Chastain (-114, BetRivers)
This matchup becomes especially interesting once you factor in the bizarre All-Star Race advancement rules.
Keselowski is already automatically locked into the final segment.
Chastain is not.
That means Keselowski’s absolute floor is 26th place, while Chastain’s floor is, well…the actual floor. As in not making the main event at all.
Now, for the watermelon enthusiasts reading this article through tears of outrage, there are legitimate reasons to like Chastain at Dover. He’s historically strong on Dover’s high-banked concrete, and he’s logged an enormous amount of track time this weekend driving in all three divisions.
Unfortunately for our friends in the Trackhouse camp, the organization has been supplying tractors to their drivers for most of the season.
I’m sure Farmer Ross feels right at home, but unfortunately for betting purposes, combines don’t generate much forward drive off the corner.
To Chastain’s credit, he did practice better than Keselowski and qualified well.
But Keselowski starts on the front row beside polesitter Denny Hamlin, carries automatic advancement security, and grades roughly 2.5 positions better than Chastain across both of our primary models.
That’s enough edge for us to make the play.
Phil Bobbitt is a motorsports betting analyst and recurring guest on CBS Sports HQ, The Early Edge, and VSiN’s A Numbers Game. He and his pal Steve developed a racing algorithm that’s profited over 260 units and $1 million in DFS winnings since 2020.
