Top Picks & Player Props to Bet in Reds vs Pirates (Jun 28)

• The Reds and Pirates wrap-up their series today in Pittsburgh
• Fade Brady Singer’s strikeout prop based on his anemic 3.93 punchouts-per-start average
• See the top picks and player props to bet in Reds vs Pirates on June 28, below

The Cincinnati Reds (38-42) visit the Pittsburgh Pirates (41-41) this afternoon with first pitch scheduled for 1:35 PM ET at PNC Park. The Reds have taken the first two games of this three game set, but online sportsbooks are siding with the Pirates in the latest MLB odds. Personally, I don’t see much value on either side or the total, and will be focusing on the player props market instead.

Pittsburgh will lean on right-hander Mitch Keller to eat innings today. He draws the unenviable task of navigating a dynamic lineup anchored by the electrifying Elly De La Cruz. Meanwhile, Cincinnati sends Brady Singer to the hill to silence perennial threat Bryan Reynolds and a depleted Pirates offense.

Below, you’ll find my top picks and player props to bet in the Reds vs Pirates matchup on June 28th.

Batter Props in Reds vs Pirates

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Looking at the batter vs pitcher stats, Reynolds has absolutely crushed Singer throughout his career. He owns a .375 average with four extra-base hits and two homers in 16 at-bats against the righty, making him a prime target for total bases props today. Ryan O’Hearn has also lit the lamp in a smaller sample size, batting .750 across four at-bats.

On the flip side, some established sluggers have fallen off a cliff in these specific matchups. Brandon Lowe and Marcell Ozuna are hitless against Singer. For the visitors, De La Cruz and Eugenio Suárez have struggled mightily against Keller, combining for 12 strikeouts in 34 at-bats.

Pitcher Props in Reds vs Pirates

In the MLB props markets, Keller is heavily juiced (-152) to eclipse 4.5 strikeouts, representing a vig-free probability of 56.9%. Singer’s strikeout line of 4.5 carries -127 juice on the over (52.8% vig-free probability) and +100 on the under.

Top Picks and Player Props to Bet in Reds vs Pirates

Despite the massive juice on some of these lines, I have found excellent value on the board. I am ignoring the public noise and attacking specific player props based on rock-solid situational trends. Here are my top predictions for today’s Reds vs Pirates matchup.

Brady Singer Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100 at DraftKings)

Singer has struggled to generate consistent swing-and-miss stuff this year. Over 15 starts, he averages an abysmal 3.93 punchouts per outing with a weak 7.27 K/9 rate. Getting even money on this prop at DraftKings is a mathematical steal. I am hammering the under.

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Sal Stewart Over 0.5 RBIs (+148 at Caesars)
Sal Stewart is a run-producing machine, racking up 57 RBIs in 81 games. He averages 0.70 RBIs per contest. Hitting behind on-base magnets like De La Cruz, Stewart will see plenty of leverage situations against an exploitable Pittsburgh bullpen. Grabbing +148 at Caesars for a guy converting this prop at a 70% clip is the stuff of a value-bettor’s wildest dreams.

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Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 Total Bases (-114 at bet365)
De La Cruz averages 1.92 total bases per game this season. He boasts 27 extra-base hits in just 62 games. While his history vs Keller is spotty, the Pirates starter has surrendered a .389 slugging percentage and nine long balls this year. I love this spot this afternoon.