What Are Mahomes’ Odds to Start, Win MVP After Injury Update?

• Patrick Mahomes has been fully cleared to participate in Chiefs training camp after his knee injury
• The update shifts his odds to start Week 1, win MVP, and lead Kansas City back to the Super Bowl
• Keep reading for Patrick Mahomes’ latest starting, MVP, and Super Bowl odds after the injury news

The scariest injury news of the Chiefs’ offseason just turned into the best. Andy Reid told reporters Friday that Patrick Mahomes has been fully cleared to participate in training camp, seven months after he tore the ACL and LCL in his left knee.

Mahomes went down in a Week 15 loss to the Chargers, the same night Kansas City was eliminated from the playoffs for the first time since 2014. He had surgery the next day and has been chasing one date ever since: September 14, when the Chiefs host Denver on Monday Night Football.

Keep reading for how the clearance moved Mahomes’ odds to start Week 1, his MVP number, and where the Chiefs sit in the Super Bowl market.

Patrick Mahomes Week 1 Starting Odds

Prediction Markets

Chiefs Starting QB Week 1

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

Patrick Mahomes

87%

Garrett Nussmeier

15%

Justin Fields

12%

Jacoby Brissett

3%

Mac Jones

0%

Predict

Mahomes is up to an 87% chance to be under center for the opener at Kalshi, which works out to roughly -669 in traditional sports betting terms. Interestingly, rookie Garrett Nussmeier holds a 15% share, edging out Justin Fields at 12% for the second spot.

Fields is the veteran Kansas City traded for as insurance, so seeing the rookie priced ahead of him tells you how little the market expects anyone but Mahomes. Reid said Mahomes will handle his usual first-team reps and go through every period of camp, about as clear a signal as it gets on the Chiefs’ NFL starting QB odds.

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Patrick Mahomes MVP Odds

A healthy Mahomes is right back in the MVP mix. He’s +1000 at DraftKings, a tick behind the top tier but well inside the picture.

That +1000 price implies about a 9% chance to take home the hardware. It’s a fair number for a two-time winner coming off surgery, and it hasn’t scared everyone off. ESPN’s Jason Reid already picked Mahomes to win his third MVP this season, leaning on a rebuilt offensive line and a run game led by Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III.

The supporting cast is intact. Travis Kelce is back, Rashee Rice was cleared alongside Mahomes, and Xavier Worthy gives him a real vertical threat. Mahomes threw for 3,587 yards with 22 touchdowns in 14 games before the injury, so the ceiling here is obvious if the knee holds up.

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You can see how he stacks up against the full field in our NFL MVP odds.

Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl Odds

The bigger question is whether Mahomes drags Kansas City back into contention. The Chiefs are +1500 at BetMGM to win it all, fifth on the board after a 6-11 finish.

For a team that missed the playoffs, +1500 tells you exactly how much of that number is Mahomes. The market is betting on a healthy version of the guy who reached the Super Bowl in three straight years before last season, not the 6-11 record.

The path is not easy. Denver won the AFC West while the Chiefs were down, and they’re waiting in Week 1. But a full season of Mahomes changes the math for a roster that added Walker and kept its core together, and you can track the whole field in the NFL Super Bowl odds.