Rams vs Chargers Picks, Starters & Betting Splits
By Chris Amberley in NFL News
Published:
- The Chargers are 3.5-point favorites tonight versus the Rams
- Justin Herbert and the Chargers starters will play two series, while the Rams will rest their number ones
- Keep reading for the Rams vs Chargers picks, starters and betting splits, below
It’s the battle of LA tonight, as the Rams face the Chargers in NFL Preseason play. This game will mark the exhibition finale for both teams, but Sean McVay and Jim Harbaugh are approaching the contest in two very different ways. Online sportsbooks and prediction markets believe Harbaugh’s strategy is the correct one, pegging the Bolts as favorites in the latest NFL odds.
Kickoff is scheduled for 7 pm PT, 10 pm ET, from SoFi Stadium, with NFL Network handling tv duties. Keep reading for my Rams vs Chargers picks, starters and betting splits, below.
Rams vs Chargers Starters
The Rams will enter the regular season as the Super Bowl odds favorites, and McVay isn’t about to jeopardize any of his starters tonight. In fact, he’s given his number ones the entire exhibition schedule off, choosing to deploy them only in joint practices. That will continue tonight, meaning the Chargers will see a heavy dose of Stetson Bennett and number two pick Ty Simpson under center. Reports out of the Rams camp is that Bennett has the inside track to the backup job, which could lead to even more playing time for Simpson versus the Bolts.
Simpson has looked sharp through two preseason games, completing 29-of-37 passes for 263 yards and 2 TD. Most of that action was against third and fourth stringers however, so we should temper expectations given he’ll likely face the top two layers of Chargers depth chart for a good chunk of his playing time.
On the Chargers side, Harbaugh is treating this game like a true dress rehearsal. Justin Herbert and the starters will get two full series to operate against Rams backups, giving the Bolts an excellent chance to jump out to an early lead. After Herbert, Trey Lance and DJ Uiagalelei will split reps, giving the Chargers a good chance to sustain drives. They’ve combined for 437 yards and 2 TD this preseason, with Lance also boasting elite rushing skills. The Bolts offense has been humming so far with new OC Mike McDaniel, and his scheme is a big reason why the Chargers are a trendy bet to clear their projection in the NFL win totals.
Rams vs Chargers Picks
Harbaugh plans to play the entire roster tonight, meaning more NFL talent will be on the field at all times for the Chargers. That gives them a huge leg up, especially off the bat with Herbert running the show, and has me siding with them against the spread. Traditional sportsbooks have LAC -3.5 listed at -105, but you can find a better price over at Kalshi. The prediction market is trading Chargers -3.5 at 49-cents, which is the equivalent of +104 odds.
I’ll also use Kalshi to trade the Chargers to win the 1st Quarter “Yes” at 50-cents (+100), which is far better than the -160 price commercial sportsbooks are offering. Before you make any wager trade tonight, use the Kalshi promo code to score a bonus.
Even if Herbert were sitting tonight, the play of Lance and Uiagalelei in McDaniel’s scheme would have me leaning Bolts. They both have a strong pedigree, and are more than capable of taking advantage of Rams fringe and practice squad players. Simpson meanwhile, is unproven versus strong NFL competition, and I expect his efficiency to regress from what we’ve seen so far.
Also working in the Chargers favor, is some reverse line movement, as I’ll discuss below.
Rams vs Chargers Odds
Odds from various sportsbooks as of August 27. Claim the Caesars Sportsbook promo code now to get in on the action.
Rams vs Chargers Betting Splits
Looking at the NFL public betting splits reveals that despite the vast number of spread tickets being on the Rams, the line has actually moved in the Chargers favor. As of Thursday afternoon, a whopping 86% of the bets are on the Rams, but that didn’t stop oddsmakers from moving the spread from Chargers -2.5 to -3.5. Anytime you see a line move in the opposite direction of that many tickets, it usually means bettors who the books respect the most, typically sharps, are all over the other side.
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
