Predictions, Picks & Props for Reds vs Cubs

• The Chicago Cubs are -185 home favorites looking to bounce back in Game 2 of their set with Cincinnati
• The Reds hit double-digit runs in a 10-8 win in the series opener on Friday
• Read below for the my Reds vs Cubs predictions, picks, props as well as the updated odds

The Chicago Cubs (76-59) look to bounce back as they continue their series against the Cincinnati Reds (64-71) on Saturday.

The Reds outslugged the Cubs 10-8 Saturday, racking up 13 hits and four home runs, as Sal Stewart, Jose Trevino, and Tyler Stephenson all went deep. The Cubs countered with 13 hits of their own and homers from Michael Busch and Pedro Ramirez, but ultimately fell short despite a late four-run rally in the eighth inning.

The books like a Cubs bounce-back, setting them as comfortable -185 moneyline favorites in the MLB odds.

First pitch goes at 2:20pm ET today from Wrigley Field, with MLB TV providing the broadcast coverage.

Reds vs Cubs Predictions

• Cubs ML (65¢ at Kalshi)

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Kalshi

Chicago Cubs to Win

65%

Abbott 4+ Ks

61%

De La Cruz Over 1.5 Bases

42%

Predict

While standard moneyline odds are heavily juiced at traditional sportsbooks, I am turning to prediction markets for better value. The statistical edge strongly leans toward the Cubs Moneyline. You can buy “Yes” shares for the Cubs on Kalshi at 65¢, which implies a more palatable -185 price tag compared to the -200 lines found elsewhere.

The Cubs feature a clear advantage at the plate, boasting a .249 team batting average and a .761 OPS. On the mound, the Cubs’ staff holds a 4.12 team ERA and a 1.25 WHIP, outpacing the Reds’ 4.58 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. When digging into situational betting angles, the Reds have managed a victory in just 37.5% (3-5) of their matchups when listed as the underdog over their last 10 games.

I also lean toward Over 8.5 Runs. Both MLB probable pitchers have shown vulnerability to allowing runs, opening the door for elite offenses to push the run count higher in a hitter-friendly environment.

Evaluating the season-to-date metrics, Reds starter Abbott has carried a heavy burden for the Reds, logging 145.1 innings across 27 starts. His 4.15 ERA is respectable, but his underlying metrics suggest he has been somewhat fortunate to suppress run-scoring. A 4.53 FIP indicates regression could loom, and his 1.40 WHIP shows that traffic on the basepaths is a consistent issue.

Conversely, trade deadline pickup Kevin Gausman boasts far superior peripheral numbers in his limited four-start sample with his new club. He owns a stellar 1.13 WHIP and an impressive 3.52 FIP. His ability to generate strikeouts (8.61 K/9) and limit free passes makes him a formidable presence.

CIN Reds vs CHI Cubs Picks & Props

Pick: Andrew Abbott 4+ Pitcher Strikeouts (61¢ at Kalshi): Buying “Yes” on Kalshi at 61¢ offers a superior payout (-156 equivalent) than traditional books. Abbott has exceeded 3.5 strikeouts in seven of his last nine games on the road, boasting a 78.0% cover rate while averaging 5.22 punchouts in those contests.

Pick: Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 Total Bases (+137 at Kalshi): Over his last six games, De La Cruz has exceeded 1.5 total bases five times (an 83.0% hit rate). The Cubs pitching allows a .415 opponent slugging percentage, giving the dynamic infielder plenty of opportunities to rack up extra bases.

Reds vs Cubs Odds

The graphic above shows the best available odds, which are subject to change. Be sure to use the BetMGM promo code to bet on Reds vs Cubs or any other MLB game. And don’t forget to check out the MLB batter vs pitcher stats before making your prop bets.

The MLB odds reflect the stark contrast between these two clubs. The oddsmakers lean heavily toward a Cubs victory, installing them as massive -185 moneyline favorites at bet365, despite dropping Friday’s contest.

Interestingly, these odds have remained entirely static since opening. The runline opened at Cubs -1.5 (+118 at Caesars), and the game total held firm at 8.5 runs.

Cincinnati is getting +165 odds at BetMGM to win outright, and they’re a little less profitable if you take the as 1.5-point favorites on the spread, with -128 odds from FanDuel.