Dolphins vs Raiders Odds & Line Movement After Cousins Named LV Starter Over Mendoza
By Sascha Paruk in NFL News
Published:
The Las Vegas Raiders made waves ahead of the 2026 NFL kickoff by officially naming veteran Kirk Cousins as their Week 1 starting quarterback over rookie No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza. With head coach Klint Kubiak opting for proven command and veteran poise out of the gate against the Miami Dolphins, oddsmakers and prediction markets have quickly adjusted their lines in favor of the Silver & Black.
Here is how the betting market moved following the Raiders’ QB1 announcement:
Updated Dolphins vs Raiders Odds (Week 1)
The Miami/Las Vegas spread opened with the Raiders as slim 1.5-point home ATS favorites and -125 moneyline chalk. Over the course of the preseason, the price on Las Vegas has moved considerably and, as of Wednesday afternoon, Las Vegas is a 3.5-point ATS favorite and -170 to win straight-up.
The odds comparison is not exactly apples to apples; the opening lines came from DraftKings, while the current odds are sourced Kalshi‘s NFL prediction markets, which have a considerably lower vig. The reduced juice doesn’t impact the actual spread number, though, which has ballooned to over a field goal.
Most of the odds movement took place before Wednesday’s QB1 announcement. Trading on Wednesday did see the Raiders move from 62¢ (–163) on the moneyline to 63¢ (-170), indicating that bettors have more confidence in the veteran than they would have in the rookie #1 pick making his first NFL start.
Las Vegas enters the season with +15000 Super Bowl odds, sixth-worst in the league. (Miami is second-last at +50000, ahead of only Arizona at +75000.)
What to Expect from Cousins in Week 1?
Proven Late-Season Form
When Cousins last held a starting role down the stretch of the 2025 season in Atlanta, he proved he can still orchestrate winning football. Cousins closed 2025 by winning his final four consecutive starts (Weeks 15–18), including an electric 373-yard, three-touchdown performance against Tampa Bay and a clutch upset win over the Rams. Over that four-game winning streak, Cousins completed 67.2% of his passes with seven touchdowns, demonstrating high-level pocket efficiency when protected.
Elite Weapons in the Passing & Running Game
Cousins walks into an decent supporting cast in Las Vegas. He inherits generational tight end Brock Bowers – the centerpiece of the Raiders’ aerial attack – alongside Michael Mayer in dual-tight end sets. On the perimeter, deep threat Tre Tucker creates vertical spacing, while superstar second-year running back Ashton Jeanty provides an elite dual-threat engine capable of turning checkdowns and early-down carries into explosive chunk gains.
2026 Draft Infusion: Protection and Depth
While the Raiders drafted their quarterback of the future in No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza, they also fortified the trenches with third-round offensive tackle Trey Zuhn. Zuhn’s addition bolsters an offensive line anchored by Kolton Miller and Jackson Powers-Johnson, giving Cousins clean pockets. Furthermore, late-round speedster Malik Benson adds depth to the receiver room, allowing the offense to attack multiple levels of Miami’s secondary.
Seamless Scheme Fit with Klint Kubiak
Scheme continuity is the biggest advantage for Cousins in Week 1. Head coach Klint Kubiak previously served as Cousins’ offensive coordinator in Minnesota during the 2021 campaign – a season in which Cousins posted 4,221 yards, 33 touchdowns, and only seven interceptions. Kubiak’s wide-zone running scheme and play-action bootlegs perfectly accentuate Cousins’ timing, accuracy, and processing speed, virtually eliminating early-season growing pains.
MIA vs LVR Pick: Raiders -3.5 (-106 / Kalshi 49¢)
Miami heads into Allegiant Stadium facing defensive questions, while Las Vegas benefits from the stability of a veteran quarterback in a tailor-made offensive scheme. Backed by Jeanty’s balanced rushing threat and Bowers dominating the middle of the field, Cousins offers the high floor and red-zone execution needed to cover the hook.
Lay the -3.5 with the Raiders as the top ATS wager for Week 1.
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
