Expert Picks & Prediction for Fritz vs Bellucci

• Taylor Fritz meets Mattia Bellucci in Round 2 action at the US Open
• I expect Fritz to cover the hefty 7.5-game spread based on H2H break-point metrics
• See the expert picks and predictions for Fritz vs Bellucci, below

Round 2 of the US Open Men’s Singles draw features a compelling hardcourt clash between massive favorite Taylor Fritz and gritty underdog Mattia Bellucci today. The action is set to get underway at 1pm ET on Arthur Ashe Stadium court. The stakes are immense as both competitors look to punch a ticket to the third round.

From a betting perspective, the primary question is whether Bellucci can return Fritz’s blistering serve. Ranked No. 10 globally, the American holds a distinct talent advantage over the 95th-ranked Italian. Their lone previous meeting at ATP Stuttgart was decided without a tiebreak: Fritz won 5-7, 7-5, 7-5. Fritz produced 11 aces to Bellucci’s nine and converted two of nine break-point chances, while Bellucci converted one of three. If Fritz establishes his service rhythm early, he will need to convert efficiently on the opportunities he creates.

Below, you can find my expert picks and predictions for the Fritz vs Belluci Round 2 clash at the US Open.

Expert Picks for Fritz vs Bellucci

Taylor Fritz -7.5 Games (+110 at bet365)

Fritz’s top-tier ranking, substantially higher Elo rating and stronger 52-week performance profile provide the baseline reliability needed to cover a hefty spread against a lower-ranked opponent.

Tennis Abstract’s Elo ratings place Fritz at 1,958.6 overall and 1,888.6 on hard courts, compared with Bellucci at 1,719.0 and 1,672.8, respectively; Tennis Ratio’s 52-week comparison points in the same direction. Fritz’s 215.8-point hard-court Elo advantage is especially meaningful in a best-of-five match, where the stronger player has more opportunities to turn a quality gap into a decisive margin. The recent results support that projection: Fritz is 9-2 across hard-court matches since late July, while Bellucci is 3-3 across hard-court matches since mid-August.

Fritz also owns a 1.302-0.991 edge in Dominance Ratio, a 1.466-1.009 advantage in Match Efficiency, and wins 88.7% of his service games compared with Bellucci’s 82.1%. He wins 79.4% of first-serve points to Bellucci’s 72.9%, saves 68.6% of break points versus 64.0%, and averages nearly twice as many aces per game (1.04 to 0.54). Those numbers point to more dependable holds and greater scoreboard pressure across a best-of-five match.

I am backing the American to cover this 7.5-game spread at +110 odds. Fritz’s lower double-fault rate (0.16 per game to Bellucci’s 0.26) further supports that position, while his 64.3% tiebreak win rate versus 50.0% gives him an edge in the close sets Bellucci is most likely to force. The Italian can create break points at a similar rate (0.49 per game to 0.48), but Fritz faces fewer break points to defend (0.36 to 0.50) and has the stronger overall efficiency profile, giving him multiple paths to build the margin required for this spread. Claim the bet365 bonus code now to tail this wager.

Fritz vs Bellucci Head-to-Head History

In the Stuttgart meeting, Fritz won 53% of total points (114 of 216) to Bellucci’s 47% (102 of 216), won 19 of 36 games to Bellucci’s 17, and held serve in 17 of 18 service games. Fritz’s 11 aces and 94% service-game hold rate show that he can apply pressure without needing a tiebreak, while Bellucci’s three break chances indicate that the Italian struggles to find openings.

Prediction for Fritz vs Bellucci

Under 36.5 Total Games (-117 at Polymarket)

I am pairing the spread with Under 36.5 games. Fritz’s superior serve and return profile gives him a path to win in straight sets and stay below the total.

Bellucci did hold 89% of his service games in the Stuttgart meeting, but the matchup data also shows Fritz created nine break-point chances against Bellucci, while Bellucci created only three against Fritz. If Fritz converts more efficiently than he did in Stuttgart, the American can avoid extended sets and build the margin required by the spread. Polymarket is currently offering the best price in this market, so claim the Polymarket bonus code and get in on the action.

Odds for Fritz vs Bellucci

Odds from bet365 on Sep. 2, 2026.

Entering the match as massive chalk, Fritz commands a steep -901 moneyline. Oddsmakers anticipate a dominant victory for the American, reflected by the hefty 7.5-game spread. To cash a ticket on Mattia Bellucci at +550, the underdog must dramatically exceed his typical baseline metrics and find a way to neutralize Fritz’s overpowering first serve.

Given the steep moneyline, I highly recommend looking toward the spread and totals markets for wagerable value.