Jovic vs Gauff Picks & Predictions (US Open)

• Coco Gauff is a -275 favorite vs Iva Jovic in Round 4 women’s singles action at the US Open
• Gauff secured the lone head-to-head win earlier this year in Rome
• See my Jovic vs Gauff picks and predictions, along with updated odds below

World No. 4 Gauff will look to book her spot in the US Open quarterfinals with a win over 14th-ranked Iva Jovic on Monday.

For sharp bettors, the central matchup question is whether Jovic can turn her improved service reliability into enough scoreboard pressure.

Gauff, the heavy chalk at -275 on the moneyline, brings the stronger return profile and far more reliable performance in pressure situations, but Jovic’s recent hard-court form and low double-fault rate give her a path to make the favorite work.

This one goes under the lights tonight at 7pm ET from Arthur Ashe Stadium at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in Flushing Meadows, New York.

American viewers will be able to catch the action on ESPN, while viewers in Canada can tune in on TSN.

Jovic vs Gauff Picks and Predictions

• Pick: Gauff -3.5 Games (-122 at Polymarket)

Tennis Abstract’s Aug. 31 Elo ratings make Gauff a substantial favorite, with a 2,126.9 overall Elo and 2,086.8 hard-court Elo versus Jovic at 1,907.1 and 1,835.8, respectively. That 251-point hard-court gap is consistent with a meaningful class advantage, and Gauff has reinforced it by going 9-1 in her last 10 completed hard-court matches listed, including six wins in Cincinnati and three at the US Open.

Tennis Ratio’s 52-week comparison also favors Gauff in the areas most relevant to covering: a 1.372-1.165 dominance ratio, a 43.9%-40.0% edge in return games won and a 66.7%-47.1% advantage in tiebreaks won. Jovic’s lower double-fault rate and better second-serve points-won mark are legitimate counters, but Gauff’s superior return pressure should create enough breaks to separate over the match.

• Pick: Under 21.5 Total Games (-104 at Kalshi)

Prediction Markets

O/U Prediction

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Kalshi

Over 21.5 Games

51%

Predict

The over remains playable as a secondary wager. Jovic has won three straight matches to reach this round, including a three-set victory over Alexandra Eala, while Gauff’s Rome meeting with Jovic went 30 games. Jovic’s 48.1% break-point conversion rate and 40.0% return-games-won rate give her a route to extend sets, even against the stronger favorite.

This total is more vulnerable than the spread if Gauff’s return game produces a routine straight-set win. The preferred bet is Gauff -3.5 games (-122), with Over 21.5 games (-104) as a secondary play; Gauff’s moneyline is the likeliest result, but the spread offers the better balance of edge and price.

Jovic vs Gauff Odds

Odds as of Sept 7 at bet365. Get a bet365 bonus code to wager on all tennis matches.

Gauff and Jovic share a brief but competitive head-to-head history, consisting solely of their May 2026 encounter on clay at WTA Rome. Gauff secured a comeback victory, 5-7, 7-5, 6-2, after Jovic led by a set.

The underdog hit 10 double faults, compared with one for Gauff. Gauff capitalized on those vulnerabilities, converting eight of her 13 break-point opportunities. That match totaled 30 games—not 32—but still showed that Jovic’s return game can keep her within striking distance when she avoids donating points.