Picks, Best Bets & Odds for Khachanov vs Blockx (US Open)

• Karen Khachanov is a -175 favorite in quarterfinal action against Alexander Blockx at the US Open
• Expect a grueling clash that pushes the total games over
• See my Khachanov vs Blockx picks, best bets, and updated odds below

A trip to the semifinal at the men’s US Open is at stake Wednesday, when Karen Khachanov battles Alexander Blockx.

The core handicap here revolves around whether Blockx’s current hard-court profile can trump Khachanov’s hefty Grand Slam pedigree.

Blockx sits at No. 34 in the ATP rankings and No. 26 in the Race with 1,430 points, visibly outpacing the 50th-ranked Khachanov, who holds 1,090 points, but sits as the betting favorite for this one.

Action gets underway at 2pm ET from Arthur Ashe Stadium at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in Flushing Meadows, New York.

You can watch the match live on ESPN, while Canadian viewers can tune into TSN.

Khachanov vs Blockx Predictions and Best Bets

• Pick: Blockx Moneyline (40¢ / +150 at Polymarket)

While Khachanov carries the chalk tag in this quarterfinal, Blockx has compiled the more convincing 2026 profile. The Belgian boasts 1,430 ATP Race points compared with Khachanov’s 1,090, and the Tennis Ratio 52-week comparison adds meaningful support: Blockx leads in dominance ratio (1.176 to 1.091), breakpoints prevail (1.560 to 1.379), dominance efficiency (1.327 to 1.264) and match efficiency (1.972 to 0.877).

The matchup data also points to Blockx holding up under pressure. He has won 53.1% of tiebreaks against Khachanov’s 30.8%, while winning 78.0% of first-serve points and 21.7% of return games, narrowly ahead of Khachanov in both categories. Khachanov does own the better first-serve accuracy and second-serve points-won marks, so this is not a clean statistical sweep, but Blockx’s broader point-by-point efficiency is more relevant to a tight best-of-five match.

I am laying my money on Blockx to secure the outright win. Rather than relying on gut feelings, the combination of a hard-court Elo edge, a perfect run through the tournament and superior efficiency metrics makes the 41-cent moneyline a highly attractive proposition.

• Pick: Over 35.5 Total Games (64¢ / -178 at Kalshi)

My second official play is backing the match to exceed 35.5 total games. Both players have already navigated four US Open wins, and neither profile suggests an easy path for the opponent. Khachanov has the power to light the lamp with his booming first serve, while Blockx has been more effective overall at turning serve and return points into scoreboard pressure.

The comparison supports a match with several competitive stretches rather than a one-sided blowout. Blockx’s 53.1% tiebreak-win rate and 86.2% service-games-won mark give him staying power, while Khachanov’s 85.2% service-games-won rate and 68.0% break points saved show why he should remain difficult to break. With both players in strong current form and the hard-court Elo gap relatively narrow, I foresee extended sets and enough resistance to push the total games over the number.

Khachanov vs Blockx Odds

Odds as of Sept 9 at bet365. Get a bet365 bonus code to wager on all tennis matches.

This will be the first career head-to-head meeting between these men.

Tennis Abstract’s Aug. 31 Elo update rates Blockx 1,869.1 overall and 1,770.2 on hard courts, compared with Khachanov at 1,790.8 overall and 1,741.6 on hard courts.

Blockx’s path has included wins over Tomas Martin Etcheverry, Marco Trungelliti, Flavio Cobolli and Francisco Cerundolo, while Khachanov has beaten Roman Andres Burruchaga, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Benjamin Bonzi and Learner Tien.