College Football Upset Predictions Week 7: Top Underdog Picks Today

• Week 7 brings a loaded Saturday slate headlined by Ohio State at Indiana, Missouri at Ole Miss and Kansas at Kansas State.
• I am targeting moneyline value on three live underdogs backed by ball security, run defense and rivalry volatility.
• Read below for my college football upset predictions and top underdog picks today.

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Week 7 of the 2026 college football season brings a massive slate loaded with College Football Playoff implications. High-profile matchups headline the board, including a top Big Ten showdown in Bloomington, an SEC clash in Oxford and the latest Sunflower Showdown in Manhattan.

As I evaluate the lines, I am looking for live underdogs whose profiles hold up against the favorites. Perception often inflates big-name programs and long rivalry streaks, so my goal is to find actual on-field value by analyzing ball security, rushing efficiency and recent form.

Three underdogs clear that bar this week. Let us dive into the data behind my top college football upset picks today.

College Football Upset Predictions for Week 7

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All three of these college football predictions come at plus money. Indiana at +131 carries an implied probability of roughly 43%, Kansas at +140 sits near 42% and Missouri at +183 sits near 35%. Indiana is the strongest outright profile, while Missouri offers the biggest payout for bettors willing to accept more variance.

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CFB Upset Pick #1: Indiana Moneyline vs Ohio State

• Pick: Indiana Moneyline (+131 at BetMGM)

Ohio State brings a 5-1 record and a passing attack averaging 337.8 yards per game into Bloomington. However, Indiana enters 6-0 and presents a compelling case for an outright upset at home. The Hoosiers have won their last three over Northwestern, Rutgers and Nebraska, including a tight 20-17 road win last week.

Quarterback Josh Hoover has thrown for 1,364 yards and 17 touchdowns without an interception, and Indiana has lost just one turnover all season for a +3 margin. Charlie Becker (529 yards, eight touchdowns) and Nick Marsh (528 yards, six touchdowns) give Hoover two reliable targets on the outside.

Ohio State averages 42.7 points and 503.5 total yards per game, with Jeremiah Smith posting 916 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns. Yet Indiana’s defense allows just 11.8 points and 75.0 rushing yards per game, and its 221.3 average per game rushing attack can control tempo. That profile makes Indiana my top CFB upset pick of Week 7.

CFB Upset Pick #2: Missouri Moneyline vs Ole Miss

• Pick: Missouri Moneyline (+183 at BetMGM)

Ole Miss is favored at home, but Missouri has the makeup of a dangerous road underdog. The Tigers are 5-1 and have won back-to-back games over Florida and Texas A&M by a combined 72-23. Ole Miss is 4-1, though it allowed 52 points in its lone loss at Florida.

The turnover battle favors the visitors. Missouri owns a +5 margin with only three giveaways, while Ole Miss sits at -1 after losing the football seven times. Quarterback Austin Simmons has thrown 14 touchdowns against just one interception, and Cayden Lee leads the receivers with 616 yards.

Running back Ahmad Hardy is officially out per the SEC Friday availability report, leaving Missouri without one of its backfield options. Roberts has already handled 147 carries for 828 yards and eight touchdowns, and he draws an Ole Miss defense surrendering 176.4 rushing yards per game.

Missouri’s defense also holds opponents to 78.3 rushing yards per game, giving it a path to make Ole Miss one-dimensional. At +183, that matchup edge makes Missouri a strong second underdog pick, even with the added uncertainty in the backfield.

CFB Upset Pick #3: Kansas Moneyline vs Kansas State

• Pick: Kansas Moneyline (+140 at BetMGM)

The Kansas vs Kansas State prediction is difficult to separate from the rivalry. Kansas State has won 17 straight meetings from 2009 through 2025, while Kansas last won in 2008. That history explains the Wildcats’ favorite status, but it does not make the current price untouchable.

Kansas State is 3-2 through five games, and its scoring has dropped every week, from 71 and 34 points down to 31, 26 and 16. Its defense has trended the other way, allowing 3, 7, 20, 31 and 35 points in that same stretch.

Kansas is 2-3, yet the Jayhawks have a credible path to an outright upset. Kansas State has converted 45 of 73 third downs, a strong 61.6% rate, and quarterback Avery Johnson’s 330 rushing yards make the Wildcats tough to get off the field.

Kansas needs big plays to answer, and that is where quarterback Isaiah Marshall fits. He is completing just 53.9% of his passes but averaging 15.04 yards per completion, giving Kansas the vertical punch to test a Wildcats defense that allowed 31 and 35 points in its last two games.

The situational warning is Kansas’ 6-69 conference road record since 2009, so this is not a blind fade of the streak. Still, +140 is a more attractive risk-reward number than laying a short price on a team whose recent form has been uneven. I make Kansas the third outright underdog play, with rivalry volatility offering enough value to take the moneyline.