Will Netanyahu Win Re-Election? Trade Israel Prime Minister Election on Kalshi

• The Israeli prime minister election is in progress, with embattled PM Benjamin Netanyahu facing what amounts to a referendum on his leadership as he tries to hold onto power
• His top challenger, Gadi Eizenkot, has military credentials and is the leader of a new centrist party called Yashar to take on Netanyahu’s Likud
• This is not a one-on-one race, as Israel’s parliamentary system votes for parties and not individual candidates, with the prime minister being named based on a majority rule; prediction markets are keeping a close eye on this crucial election

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Few global elections are drawing the amount of attention as Israel’s ongoing vote to name its next prime minister with current PM Benjamin Netanyahu trying to stay in office and his opponent Gadi Eizenkot vying to replace him. The Jewish State’s parliamentary process makes it possible that neither Netanyahu’s Likud Party nor Eizenkot’s Yashar Party will win the required 61 of 120 seats to form a government. If no single party has control, then there would need to be a coalition with the current administration staying in place for the time being.

Therefore, there are three market options: Netanyahu, Eizenkot, or no prime minister.

Netanyahu has been prime minister three separate times and is the longest-serving PM in Israel’s history. Eizenkot was a military leader and has been part of various Israeli governments in military advisory capacities.

There is widespread condemnation of Netanyahu in Israel and across the globe for his hawkishness and alleged corruption. Eizenkot’s main selling point is that he is not Netanyahu and would maintain a law-and-order stance with the expectation that Israeli citizens would be loyal to the state while offering a more nuanced foreign policy.

Israeli politics are unpredictable, and Netanyahu has shown repeatedly that it is foolish to count him out. With that, prediction markets are offering users the chance to weigh in on the election and derive profit with an accurate pick.

Will Netanyahu Win Re-Election? Trade on Israel Prime Minister Race

Volume is just beyond $4.6 million.

Gadi Eizenkot’s market probability is in the mid-40s. No prime minister being named from this election is at about 40%. Netanyahu is bringing up the rear at under 20%.

For those who want to jump into this market, the Kalshi promo code offers new users a $55 bonus after making $25 in trades.

The rules can be complicated, so it is important to understand them beforehand.

The market will resolve to Yes if the selected candidate becomes Prime Minister of Israel after a government is formed following the 2026 Israeli legislative election and all constitutional requirements are met prior to Oct. 27. 2026. The market will resolve to “no one” if no government is formed by that date.

Knesset, the Israeli parliament, will verify the outcome.

Benjamin Netanyahu (Likud)

Netanyahu has been running the Israeli government for two-thirds of the past three decades. Every time he seems sidelined, mitigated, or outright done, he’s returned and regained power. Regardless of the scandals, allegations, accusations, and unpopularity, he knows how to work the levers behind the scenes and garner sufficient support to come out on top again.

Currently, he is under siege for the perceived over-the-top response to the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks. Very quickly, he turned mostly global empathy towards Israel into accusations of a disproportionate series of retaliatory strikes. Then he brought President Donald J. Trump — and longtime Netanyahu ally and friend to Israel — and the United States into the surprise campaign against Iran. Trump has reportedly upbraided Netanyahu for the Middle East forays and how it has negatively impacted his approval ratings.

Regardless, Netanyahu should not be underestimated, even with the Israeli population and members of the government seemingly having had more than enough of him to the point where loyal Israeli military veterans like Eizenkot felt compelled to start a new party to try and take him down.

His market probability is low, but this is a man who, in the spirit of the Halloween season, is as resilient as Michael Myers and twice as ruthless.

All signs point to him being ousted, but count him out at your own risk.

Gadi Eizenkot (Yashar)

Eizenkot was part of the National Unity party under Benny Gantz before leaving to found Yashar.

The new party is not on the left. On the contrary, it is center-right, with the platform pushing for an end to ultra-Orthodox Israeli citizens being exempt from mandatory military service, something that constituency is obviously steadfastly against.

He has military bona fides as a Lieutenant General in the Israeli Defense Forces and has expressed an aggressive stance against those who threaten Israel’s safety and go so far as to try to destroy it completely. He lost a son and two nephews in the war in Gaza after Oct. 7. Like Netanyahu, he is opposed to a two-state solution with a proposed Palestine as Israel’s neighbor.

This is not a case of Netanyahu facing a candidate who is the polar opposite in terms of policy. Eizenkot’s main attribute and selling point to the voters is that they would get similar security measures and military strength, but not have to deal with Netanyahu and his rampant global and statewide enmity.

Will the “I’m Not Bibi” campaign succeed?

The electorate is so exhausted by years and years and years of Netanyahu that Eizenkot is likely to win. He’ll need to build some bridges to form a government given the fractured nature of Israeli politics. For many, Netanyahu being gone (for the time being) will be good enough.