Arizona State vs BYU Prediction, Picks & Big 12 Odds (Oct. 31)

• Arizona State visits Provo after a win over Kansas State, while BYU looks to respond to its first loss of the season
• A quarterback change for the Sun Devils and a BYU ground game that has cooled without LJ Martin shape the matchup
• Read below for my Arizona State vs BYU prediction and Saturday CFB picks

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Arizona State travels to LaVell Edwards Stadium to face BYU on Saturday, Oct. 31. The Sun Devils are 4-3 after beating Kansas State 28-17, while the 6-1 Cougars are coming off a 39-31 double-overtime loss to UCF. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET.

The game puts Arizona State’s passing production and recent rushing breakout against a BYU team that has been more consistent on third down and stronger defensively. BYU has also won 11 consecutive home games, but covering a 16.5-point spread requires more than simply winning in Provo.

Below is the full Arizona State vs BYU prediction, including picks on the spread and total at current Polymarket prices.

Arizona State vs BYU Prediction and Odds

Prediction: BYU covers the 16.5-point spread and the game goes Over 47.5.

The Polymarket board lists the following prices for the matchup. A cent price is the current cost of a Yes share, with 100¢ representing a dollar.

BYU is a heavy moneyline favorite at 87¢, but the spread sits near a coin flip at 51¢ on both sides, so the market views 16.5 points as a fair number. The total carries the clearest lean on the board, with the Over at 54¢ against 48¢ for the Under. Prices across opposite outcomes do not necessarily add up to exactly 100¢ and can change as the market moves, so compare them with the latest college football odds before kickoff.

Claim the Polymarket sign-up bonus before kickoff, or browse our rankings of the best college football betting apps to compare more options for Saturday.

Saturday CFB Pick #1: BYU -16.5

The BYU spread pick rests on the matchup’s efficiency gap, especially on third down and defense. The Cougars have converted 47 of 86 third-down attempts, about 54.7%, compared with Arizona State’s 28 of 93, about 30.1%. That difference can extend BYU possessions while forcing the Sun Devils to find answers on longer drives. Turnover figures also favor the home team: BYU has lost six turnovers and recorded eight takeaways, while ASU has lost nine and recorded six takeaways.

The season-long team numbers add context. BYU averages 33.1 points and 414.3 yards per game, while allowing 18.6 points and 301.6 yards. Arizona State averages 30.9 points and 411.6 yards, but allows 29.9 points and 359.6 yards. The Cougars’ defense has allowed only 98.1 rushing yards per game, a challenge for an ASU offense likely to lean on Cardae Mack after his 159-yard, four-touchdown performance against Kansas State.

A 16.5-point margin still demands four full quarters. Arizona State has enough offensive production to make a late cover possible, and BYU’s rushing attack has been less effective without LJ Martin. A BYU spread cover needs a sustained advantage, not just a home win or a brief scoring burst, and the Cougars’ edge on third down and defense gives them that path. Check both teams’ college football ATS records and trends before locking in the number.

Saturday CFB Pick #2: Over 47.5

The Over 47.5 prediction has a clear path in the teams’ combined scoring profiles: Arizona State averages 30.9 points per game and BYU 33.1. The posted total can be reached through several combinations of scoring, with BYU’s defensive record and the Sun Devils’ quarterback change as the main counterarguments.

Arizona State has scored on 20 of 24 red-zone trips, including 15 touchdowns. BYU has converted 25 of 29 visits into points, with 23 touchdowns, giving the Cougars a stronger touchdown rate once they reach scoring range. The Over is not risk-free: BYU allows just 18.6 points per game, and a slower Sun Devils offense could leave the total short. Still, at 54¢, the Over is the strongest lean on the board.

Arizona State’s QB Change and BYU’s Shifting Ground Game

Arizona State is expected to start Jake Fette after Cutter Boley was benched and Mikey Keene was injured. Fette has completed four of eight passes for 58 yards in limited action, so his expanded role is a major question. Reed Harris has been a productive target, with four games of at least six catches and 120 receiving yards. The Sun Devils have averaged 267.4 passing yards per game, but Fette’s small sample makes that figure hard to count on.

That puts more weight on the ground game. Arizona State’s scoring case depends in part on whether Mack can keep producing against the BYU front after his breakout against Kansas State.

BYU’s rushing attack has moved in the other direction. In its first four games with Martin, BYU averaged 235.5 rushing yards and 37.3 points. Across the last three games without him, those averages fell to 138 rushing yards and 27.7 points. Martin’s return for Saturday has not been confirmed.

Quarterback Bear Bachmeier helps offset that drop. He has thrown for 1,514 yards and added 321 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns, giving the Cougars options when plays break down. A convincing home win would also help BYU’s standing in the odds to make the College Football Playoff after last week’s loss to UCF.