Canadiens vs Maple Leafs Prediction, Puck Line & NHL Picks (Nov. 7)

• The Canadiens are -118 road favourites over the Maple Leafs on Saturday night
• Montreal is 10-3-3 and has won six of its last seven games
• See my Canadiens vs Maple Leafs prediction, puck line odds and NHL picks below

The Montreal Canadiens (10-3-3) visit the Toronto Maple Leafs (8-7-2) on Saturday, with puck drop set for 7 p.m. ET at Scotiabank Arena. This time, the Habs walk into Toronto as the betting favorite after defeating the Leafs 3-2 in the season opener.

Toronto still has Auston Matthews and William Nylander up front, while Montreal leans on Cole Caufield and defenceman Lane Hutson, and got captain Nick Suzuki back last outing. The Leafs own the better power play by a wide margin, but the Habs have the better record and the stronger recent run.

Below are my Canadiens vs Maple Leafs prediction and picks, plus the latest NHL odds and where the public money is going.

Canadiens vs Maple Leafs Prediction

• Pick: Canadiens Moneyline (-118 at BetMGM)

My Canadiens vs Maple Leafs prediction is Montreal to win outright. The Habs are 6-1 over their last seven games, have won their last four on the road and have taken the last four meetings with Toronto.

The Leafs haven’t given bettors much reason to trust them at home. They’re 4-8 over their last 12 games at Scotiabank Arena and 4-13 in their last 17 home games after a loss. At -118, Montreal carries about a 54% implied chance, and I like the Habs to win this more often than that.

Canadian bettors comparing prices before puck drop can also check BET99 for this Original Six matchup.

• Pick: Over 6.5 Goals (-118 at BetMGM)

I’m also taking the Over. It has cashed in each of Montreal’s last four games and in seven of its last nine after a win. Toronto games have gone Over in five of the last seven.

Neither defence is shutting teams down. Montreal allows 3.19 goals per game and Toronto gives up 3.24. Both clubs also sit below .900 in Sportradar’s team save percentage numbers, at .887 and .891.

Canadiens vs Maple Leafs Odds: Moneyline, Puck Line & Total

Odds as of November 6 at BetMGM.

Montreal is the -118 favourite, with Toronto at -102. The Habs land around a 51.7% chance to win, with the Leafs near 48.3%.

On the Canadiens vs Maple Leafs puck line, Montreal -1.5 pays +190, good for roughly a 34.5% implied shot. Toronto +1.5 costs -238, which works out to about a 70.4% implied chance. The total is 6.5, with the Over at -118 and the Under at -102.

Canadiens vs Maple Leafs Public Betting Splits

• Toronto: 86.5% of the money on 31.3% of the tickets
• Montreal: 13.5% of the money on 68.7% of the tickets

More bettors are on Montreal, but the bigger dollar amounts are sitting with Toronto. That’s a wide gap and worth watching if the line moves before Saturday. I’m still with the Habs. You can follow more of these numbers on our NHL public betting trends page.

Canadiens vs Maple Leafs Team Stats

Sportradar’s possession numbers favour Montreal, with a 51.9% Corsi For and a 52.3% Fenwick For. Toronto sits at 47.9% and 48.9%, so the Leafs are giving up more attempts than they create.

Special teams are Toronto’s best path to a win. A 28.8% power play and 88.1% penalty kill are well ahead of Montreal’s 14% and 78.5%. If the Habs stay out of the box, I like their chances.

Canadiens vs Maple Leafs Lineup News

Nick Suzuki and Kirby Dach have both returned to the Montreal lineup. John Tavares is expected to play Saturday after a full practice Friday, but that isn’t confirmed. Neither team has confirmed a starting goalie, so check back closer to puck drop.