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2021 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds, Preview and Picks – How to Find Value Betting on Joey Chestnut

Chris Wassel

by Chris Wassel in News

Jul 2, 2021 · 10:25 AM PDT

2021 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest odds - Joey Chestnut and Michelle Lesco
Competitive eater Joey Chestnut sets a new world record with 75 hot dogs to win the men's division of the Nathan's Famous July Fourth hot dog eating contest, Saturday, July 4, 2020, in the Brooklyn borough of New York. (AP Photo/John Minchillo)
  • Odds are being offered on the annual July 4th Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest in Coney Island
  • Will reigning champs Joey Chestnut be beaten? Can Michelle Lesco finally win one? How many hot dogs will the winners consume? 
  • Analysis of these and other props and betting advice follows in the story below

July 4th is about beer, fireworks, and the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest from Coney Island in Brooklyn in the USA. Joey Chestnut is the king of consuming hot dogs. The 36-year-old from Fulton County, Ky. has captured the last four Nathan’s titles and 12 of the past 13 contests.

Chestnut is an overwhelming -3335 odds-on favorite to wear the championship belt again in 2020.  Will he shatter his world record of 75 hot dogs eaten in the 10-minute time limit?

The oddsmakers are not so sure about the women’s field without Miki Sudo. Michelle Lesco is the favorite at -1000, though.

These are just two among some intriguing prop wagers being offered on this day of independence and serious hot dog eating.

2021 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds

Competitor Odds
Joey Chestnut -3335
Any Other Participant +900

All odds as of July 2nd at DraftKings

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Nathan’s Takes It to the Park

Due to COVID-19 pandemic restrictions, the 2020 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating contest was indoors. However, this year, Nathan’s is going back outdoors.

Normally it’s held outdoors on the Coney Island boardwalk. Last year, it was held in a private location with media only. The 2021 competition will be held at Maimonedes Park at the home of the Brooklyn Cyclones.

Previous Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Winners

Year Men’s Champion (Hot Dogs Eaten) Women’s Champion (Hot Dogs Eaten)
2020 Joey Chestnut (75) Miki Sudo (48.5)
2019 Joey Chestnut (71) Miki Sudo (31)
2018 Joey Chestnut (74) Miki Sudo (37)
2017 Joey Chestnut (72) Miki Sudo (41)
2016 Joey Chestnut (70) Miki Sudo (38.5)

This year, there will be 18 men and 10 women competing.

Expect the weather to not be much of a factor. Partly sunny skies and near-75 degree temperatures should make for an easier chow down. It may also be not as humid as originally forecasted.

Something else to keep in mind…

In 2018, Chestnut established the current standard, devouring 74 hot dogs.

He slipped back a bit to 71 hot dogs in 2019 but came back with a vengeance dispatching 75 wieners and buns in just ten minutes. The scary part was last year Chestnut seemed to hold back some. Again, as we said, does 2021 and a live audience give Chestnut a reason to break another record? It might.

Pick: Joey Chestnut to win (-3335)

Joey Chestnut Number of Hot Dogs Eaten Odds

Hot Dogs Eaten Odds
Over 73.5 -200
Under 73.5 +150

The Fastest Hot Dog Eater in the World

Barring a bad stomach ache, Chestnut is going to win again this year. There is no man better at eating hot dogs as fast as Joey Chestnut can.

That being said, there’s no point in placing a wager on Chestnut to win at -3335. However, the over/under this year is enticing at 73.5.

Last year, Chestnut lapped the field as he defeated Darron Breedon by a whopping 33 hot dogs. Halfway through, he had eaten 46 hot dogs and 12 in the first minute alone. No one came close. With the event going back outside, does Chestnut push himself again? The answer is likely yes.

Pick: Joey Chestnut Over 73.5 (-200)

2021 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Women’s Contest Odds

Competitor Odds
Michelle Lesco -1000
Any Other Participant +500

Miki Sudo Takes Year Off, Make Way for Michelle Lesco?

Women’s champ Miki Sudo actually has a longer streak than Chestnut. She’s won every Nathan’s title since 2014.

Sudo ate a women’s record 48.5 hot dogs last year as she easily outpaced the field by almost 30 hot dogs. Michelle Lesco took the year off. This year, it is Sudo’s turn as she is nine months pregnant. Sudo expects to be back in 2022 going for her eighth crown.

Lesco is getting better at competitive eating every year. If you don’t feel confident betting her outright to beat the field, then take the field as the numbers there may be better than any year since 2014 or 2015. That being said, the competitive eater from Tucson, Arizona, has her own feel-good story. Her work with youth services in Arizona and humanitarianism with water wells in Africa alone tugs at the heartstrings. There is also this.

The year off may have been enough. Lesco is the only other women’s competitive hot dog eater to break the 30 mark at Coney Island. She may do that once more this year. It will be a close race but expect the three-time runner up to claim her first crown.

Pick: Michelle Lesco to win (-1000)

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