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Opening Odds for Canelo Alvarez vs Jermell Charlo Fight on Sept. 30 in Las Vegas

Dylan Bowker

by Dylan Bowker in Boxing

Updated Jun 30, 2023 · 5:21 PM PDT

Canelo Alvarez
Sep 17, 2022; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Canelo Alvarez (red trunks) and Gennadiy Golovkin (white trunks) box during a super middleweight championship bout at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
  • Canelo Alvarez vs Jermell Charlo reportedly goes on September 30th
  • Alvarez is favored here in this monumental showdown
  • Check out the opening Alvarez vs Charlo odds, analysis, and predictions below

Canelo Alvarez vs Jermell Charlo reportedly goes down on September 30th. The former is a favorite over the latter after opening Alvarez vs Charlo odds were released.

The showdown is stoking the fires of oddsmakers who have already crafted a line for this one. Let’s take a look at the opening Alvarez vs Charlo odds as we analyze the seemingly upcoming fight.

Canelo Alvarez vs Jermell Charlo Odds

Fighter Odds
Canelo Alvarez -200
Jermell Charlo +160

Canelo is a -200 favorite in the opening Alvarez vs Charlo odds, meaning Canelo has a 66.7% implied win probability.

This historic clash goes down and kicks off an industry-shaking multi-fight PBC deal that Canelo has signed.


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Odds as of June 30th. Check out the top sports betting sites

Canelo Favored in Opening Boxing Odds

Canelo was engaging in a certain level of discussions for a rematch with Dmitry Bivol. Also, the multi-weight class champion was loosely mentioning a clash vs cruiserweight titleholder Badou Jack.

There were even talks about Alvarez fighting the larger Charlo brother, Jermall. Alas that will not be happening and the undisputed champion at 154 pounds Jermell will instead take on the challenge.

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Charlo was originally slated to eventually fight WBO mandatory Tim Tszyu but those plans have obviously been scuttled with this fight news breaking.

This prizefight will see Charlo jump up two weight divisions to take on the biggest box-office draw in the sport today. The showdown is being reported for Las Vegas but a venue is not yet known for this pay-per-view showcase.

Charlo an underdog vs Canelo

Charlo holds all of the gold at super welterweight and this Canelo clash marks the first-time two undisputed champions will test their skills with one another in the four-belt era. Alvarez has all of the world title hardware at 168 pounds as Canelo will seemingly defend his straps against a game challenger.

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The dormant period for Jermell is less pronounced than it was for Jermall with the smaller Charlo having been out of the ring for a bit over a year.

Jermall Charlo has reportedly been out for over two years due to mental health issues. Those same hindrances have reportedly gotten in the way of this Canelo booking which opened things up for Jermell.

Expected Alvarez vs Charlo Odds Movement

In terms of how the odds will move closer to the fight, I feel like Canelo will still remain an ample favorite. The inactivity and size disadvantage Charlo faces here is too much in my estimation.

The discourse around weight class are interesting as Canelo has largely been at 168 lbs in recent years. He has fought lower but to drop down to 160 pounds (for the first time in over four years vs Danel Jacobs) and meet Charlo in the middle here, it could add an interesting variable to this one that will make the fight more competitive.

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If it’s at super middleweight though and is an official title defense, I favor Canelo for sure.

In summation, even though many in the sweet science community think Canelo has lost a step or two, I think he’s still a fair bit ahead of Charlo, skill-wise.


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