Early ATS Picks for Week 9 College Football: Predictions Against the Spread
By Chris Amberley in College Football
Published:
- A loaded Saturday slate features a ranked Big 12 showdown and marquee road trips
- Defensive contrasts and third-down efficiency drive my predictions against the spread this week
- Read below for my early ATS picks for Week 9 college football, including the top predictions against the spread
Week 9 of the 2026 college football season brings a loaded slate of high-stakes matchups. No. 2 Ohio State hits the road for a massive clash against USC, while No. 13 Texas Tech hosts No. 22 Arizona in a showdown between two 6-1 teams that are both 3-1 in conference play.
Elsewhere, Clemson visits Florida State in an ACC matchup between two teams hovering around .500. The Tigers sit at 4-3 and the Seminoles are 3-4, and both enter a conference game that could shape the rest of their season.
I am weighing season-long efficiency against the current college football odds to find value before the market settles. Let’s dive into my early ATS picks for Week 9 college football and predictions against the spread.
Early ATS Picks for Week 9 College Football
The table above lays out my three early ATS picks for Week 9, with all three priced between -110 and -118 as of October 26. The key takeaway is that every play backs an underdog catching points, so the cushion does real work even if the favorite wins the game.
The BetMGM promo code page has the current offer details and eligibility terms for readers considering the two BetMGM selections.
Early CFB ATS Pick #1: USC +7 vs Ohio State
- Pick: USC +7 (-118 at BetMGM)
Ohio State has looked the part of a National Championship odds contender, averaging 39.3 points per game, but traveling across the country to face USC is a brutal spot. The Trojans are no slouch offensively at 32.8 points per game, and getting a full touchdown with the home underdog here is a gift.
USC has the pocket presence to keep this within a single score. Jayden Maiava has thrown for 2,303 yards with 19 touchdowns against just five interceptions, and the Trojans have converted 49 of 97 third downs for a 50.5% clip.
That efficiency matters against an Ohio State defense allowing opponents to convert 38.4% of third downs (38 of 99). If USC keeps moving the chains, it controls the clock and keeps the Buckeyes from running away with this one. Take the points.
Early CFB ATS Pick #2: Arizona +3.5 at Texas Tech
- Pick: Arizona +3.5 (-111 at BetMGM)
This is a matchup of two 6-1 teams, and the hook makes Arizona the side. The Wildcats bring a high-powered offense to Lubbock, averaging 36.1 points and 459.4 yards per game, which gives them the firepower to trade scores on the road.
Texas Tech averages 35.9 points per game, so these offenses are nearly identical on the scoreboard. When two attacks are this evenly matched, getting 3.5 points is real value, because even a three-point Arizona loss still cashes the ticket.
The Red Raiders have been tough at home, riding a 12-game home winning streak. But Texas Tech has already lost once this season at Cincinnati, and I trust Arizona’s offense to answer score for score. Grab the hook and compare numbers across the best college football betting apps.
Early CFB ATS Pick #3: Clemson +6.5 at Florida State
- Pick: Clemson +6.5 (51¢ on Kalshi)
Clemson’s offense will not win any beauty contests. The Tigers average just 333.1 yards and 21.4 points per game while converting only 31.7% of third downs, and Florida State puts up 31.6 points per game. But this pick is about the other side of the ball.
Clemson still plays exceptional defense, allowing just 317 yards and 21.3 points per game. Florida State gives up 434.9 yards and 27.9 points per game. That is a gap of nearly 118 yards per game between these two units, and it is the clearest edge on this card.
When the better defense is catching 6.5 points, I want the points. Clemson does not need to outscore Florida State for four quarters to cover; it needs to win outright or lose by six points or fewer. This is one of my favorite predictions against the spread on the Week 9 board. New users can sign up with the Kalshi promo code and score a bonus to bet on this game.
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
