Ohio State vs Indiana Odds, Line & Early Prediction – CFB Week 13

• #2 Ohio State is an 11.5-point home favorite over #5 Indiana in Week 13 College Football action on Saturday, November 23
• The Buckeyes need to win out to earn a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game
• Check out the Ohio State vs Indiana odds, lines, and early prediction, below

The biggest game on the Week 13 college football slate features undefeated Indiana (10-0, 7-0 Big Ten) visiting one-loss Ohio State (9-1, 6-1 Big Ten). Online sportsbooks don’t expect the Hoosiers perfect season to continue, pegging the Buckeyes as massive home chalk in the latest college football odds.

Ohio State vs Indiana Odds

Ohio State is favored by 11.5-points in a game with a total of 51.5. This contest opened Buckeyes -12.5, but early Indiana money drove the line down. As of Monday morning, the Hoosiers love hasn’t stopped per the college football public betting splits. Indiana is currently drawing 67% of the spread tickets, and 64% of the handle. 

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Kickoff for this Big Ten showdown is set for Noon ET at Ohio Stadium, in Columbus, OH, with FOX providing the broadcast coverage.

Explaining the Lopsided Spread

You may be wondering why a perfect 10-0 team is getting so many points in this situation. It’s certainly not a knock on the Hoosiers play on the field, because they’ve been utterly dominant in nearly every game they’ve played.

Indiana leads the nation in point differential (301) and has racked up nine wins of at least 14 points. They rank number one in points per play and red zone efficiency, and third in points per outing.

BSB Advanced Stat Preview: Indiana at Ohio State

Something not included: Unadjusted for opponent, Ohio State and Indiana are 1 and 2 in Net EPA/play nationally.

This game will be fun. pic.twitter.com/fq0V3JHge4

— taylor from bite-sized bison (@ByTaylorL) November 18, 2024

Defensively, the metrics are elite as well. The Hoosiers are top-10 in scoring defense and yards allowed, and second in yards per carry. The issue is the opposition they’ve faced. Indiana enters Week 13 ranked 100th in strength of schedule, with their average opponent posting a winning percentage of just 49.4%.

Also working against them, is their performance the last time we saw them. Back in Week 11, they played their only one-score game of the season, squeaking out a win over Michigan. They struggled offensively in the second half, racking up a meager 17 net yards on 24 plays. Longshot Heisman Trophy odds contender Kurtis Rourke was picked off in the red zone, and the IU offensive line allowed four sacks.

Buckeyes Are Battle Tested

There’s no strength of schedule concerns for Ohio State. The Buckeyes lone loss was by a single point to #1 Oregon, and it’s considered the best defeat in the country. Ohio State won and covered on the road against a previously undefeated and top-10 Penn State team. Aside from an underwhelming victory over Nebraska, the Buckeyes have dominated their other contests.

They’ve held each of their last four opponents under 18 points and 275 yards, while the Ducks are the only team to eclipse 20 points against them. The Buckeyes lead the nation in scoring defense, and rank second in total yards allowed.

Offensively, they’re top-10 in nearly every metric, but do have offensive line issue, especially against the blitz. They rank 91st in sack rate when the heat is on, posting just a 7.2% big play rate under duress.

Ohio State needs to win out to ensure a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game, while ESPN FPI gives them a 95% chance to be on the final 12 standing in the College Football Playoff odds.

Ohio State vs Indiana Early Prediction

Despite the discrepancy in strength of schedule, the market believes there’s value on Indiana +11.5. The Hoosiers have handled nearly everyone on their schedule convincingly, and the lacklustre effort versus Michigan can be partly attributed to injuries to Rourke and some other key players.

Those injuries have had an extra week to heal thanks to a much needed bye in Week 12. Indiana’s offense gets all the headlines, but their defense should be able to keep them in this game. They rank fourth in epa per play on that side of the ball, and yield the sixth fewest explosive plays.

Ohio State meanwhile, has been mortal against the spread, posting just a 5-5 ATS mark. They played one-score games against both ranked opponents they faced, and this game should finish inside 10 points, let alone 11.5.

This spread is likely to continue moving in the Hoosiers favor, so grab the +11.5 now before it crosses a key number.

• Pick: Indiana +11.5 (-110)