College Football Upset Picks Week 8: Top Saturday Underdog Bets
By Michael Schwartz in College Football
Published:
- College football upset picks are back for a loaded Week 8 Saturday slate
- I am targeting three underdogs with matchup edges the market is underpricing
- Read below for my top Saturday underdog bets and Week 8 predictions
Week 8 of the 2026 college football season brings a Saturday board packed with conference showdowns, and the best value may sit with plus-money underdogs rather than the chalk.
I am looking for teams that win a specific phase of the game, which includes protecting the quarterback, finishing drives or shutting down explosive plays. When an underdog owns one of those edges, the college football odds often undersell its outright chances.
My top college football upset picks for Week 8 span three conferences, with the matchup analysis and current moneyline prices laid out below.
College Football Upset Picks for Week 8
Ole Miss at +130 carries a 43.5% implied probability, and Wisconsin at +125 sits at 44.4%, so both price like near coin flips. Colorado at +400 implies just 20%, making it the high-upside ticket of the group. If you would rather trade outcomes than bet a sportsbook line, prediction market apps offer another way to follow Saturday’s games where markets are listed.
CFB Upset Pick #1: Ole Miss Moneyline vs Texas
- Pick: Ole Miss Moneyline (+130 at BetMGM)
No. 7 Ole Miss (5-1) visits No. 19 Texas (4-2) as a road underdog, but the Rebels bring the more reliable offense. Trinidad Chambliss has 1,676 passing yards and 14 total touchdowns through six games, and Kewan Lacy ran for 122 yards on 16 carries in the win over Missouri.
Texas, meanwhile, has dropped two straight by a combined six points. The Longhorns’ 34.3% three-and-out rate is the worst in the SEC, which hands possessions back to an offense built to stack long drives. Ole Miss also allows just 0.83 sacks per game, best in the SEC and 10th in FBS, so Chambliss should have time to work.
My Ole Miss vs Texas upset pick comes down to keeping Chambliss clean and turning Texas’ stalled possessions into extra scoring opportunities. That combination gives the Rebels a strong chance to leave Austin with an outright win. Claim your BetMGM promo code before backing the Rebels.
CFB Upset Pick #2: Colorado Moneyline vs Oklahoma State
- Pick: Colorado Moneyline (+400 at BetMGM)
Colorado is the biggest longshot of the card. The Buffaloes are 2-4 and score 19.5 points per game, while Oklahoma State is 4-2 and 3-0 at home, outscoring those visitors 140-59. Cowboys quarterback Drew Mestemaker is 16-5 in career starts.
Colorado’s defense is why I am interested. The Buffaloes have held five of six opponents below 30 points, a level of resistance that keeps this game from getting away early. Isaac Wilson has also given the offense a spark under center, averaging 273 passing yards and 41.5 rushing yards per start over his two starts.
My Colorado vs Oklahoma State upset prediction leans on that defensive resistance and Wilson’s ability to create with both his arm and legs. I like Colorado to turn a competitive fourth quarter into an outright win, with a small stake appropriate for the longest price on this card.
CFB Upset Pick #3: Wisconsin Moneyline vs USC
- Pick: Wisconsin Moneyline (+125 at BetMGM)
Wisconsin (4-2) hosts No. 16 USC (6-1) with one of the nation’s best defenses against chunk plays. The Badgers have allowed just 54 gains of 10-plus yards, tied for fewest in FBS, along with 171.2 passing yards per game and three passing touchdowns, tied for fewest in the Big Ten. Camp Randall has been a fortress, too, with Wisconsin holding five straight home opponents under 20 points since Nov. 8, 2025.
That is the exact counter to USC, which leads FBS with 132 gains of 10-plus yards. Taking away those quick strikes forces the Trojans to sustain longer drives and gives Wisconsin more chances to get a stop. That matchup is the foundation of my Wisconsin vs USC upset pick.
Colton Joseph is the swing piece. He leads Wisconsin with 333 rushing yards and has averaged 83.7 rushing yards per game over his last three outings. At +125, I like a home team that limits explosives and has a quarterback who can extend drives with his legs.
