2019 Golden Globes Odds and Best Bets for Each Category
- The 76th Golden Globes takes place on Sunday, January 6th
- Vice and The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story lead with the most nominations
- Here’s a look at the odds for the key categories
The 76th Golden Globes are set to take place this Sunday, January 6th at The Beverly Hilton and will be airing live on NBC. Andy Samberg and Sandra Oh will host the proceedings for another fun night of television and film awards.
Vice leads the nominations for the film categories, with six nods that include Best Musical or Comedy and Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy. The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story leads the small screen categories, with four nods.
We’ve already covered Best Actress in a Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy, Best Animated Motion Picture, Best Television Series — Drama, and Best Television Series — Musical or Comedy. Now it’s time for the others!
76th Golden Globe Awards Odds
Odds for Best Motion Picture – Drama
|Best Motion Picture – Drama||Odds at Book 1||Odds at Book 2|
|A Star is Born||-450||-500|
|If Beale Street Could Talk||+550||+500|
The bookmakers have A Star is Born as the clear favorite to win the coveted Best Drama award. Bradley Cooper showed himself to be an actor who can sing, and Lady Gaga a singer who can act. The film is an example of a well-executed remake, but the odds seem a little too favorable.
BlacKKKlansman, Spike Lee’s latest project, is where the value is. It’s one of the most topical and politically relevant films of our time, and the critical response so far hints at a successful night at the Globes. Books are offering +1100 odds, which is just too good to pass on.
Pick: BlacKKKlansman (+1100)
Odds for Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
|Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy||Odds at Book 1||Odds at Book 2|
|Mary Poppins Returns||+1400||+900|
|Crazy Rich Asians||+2500||+1000|
Green Book is the slight favorite to win Best Musical or Comedy, but in my opinion, The Favorite should be… well, the favorite. The British period piece has already swept all the awards from across the pond, and looks poised to take North America by storm.
Aside from Green Book, there isn’t much competition for The Favorite. Vice looked promising but proved underwhelming, and Mary Poppins Returns and Crazy Rich Asians aren’t serious contenders for the award.
Pick: The Favorite (+200)
Odds for Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
|Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama||Odds at Book 1||Odds at Book 2|
|Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)||-300||-300|
|Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)||+250||+225|
|Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate)||+1400||+1000|
|John David Washington (BlacKKKlansman)||+1800||+1000|
|Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased)||+1800||+1400|
This seems to be a relatively quiet year for the award. Bradley Cooper’s performance in A Star is Born is the heavy favorite and doesn’t seem to be facing much competition. Cooper, who is both star and director, demonstrates a versatility we’re not used to seeing from him and the film marks a stunning return to form.
Rami Malek is the only viable challenger for the award, with his portrayal of Freddie Mercury in Bohemian Rhapsody. The film itself could be considered a flop, but Malek’s performance is the saving grace. He’s the only reason to sit through the two-hour musical bipoic , and that alone should earn him a Golden Globe.
Pick: Rami Malek (+250)
Odds for Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
|Best Actor in a Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy||Odds at Book 1||Odds at Book 2|
|Christian Bale (Vice)||-170||-145|
|Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)||+185||+150|
|Robert Redford (The Old Man and the Gun)||+800||+700|
|John C. Reilly (Stan & Ollie)||+1600||+1200|
|Lin-Manuel Miranda (Mary Poppins Returns)||+1600||+1200|
Christian Bale is the odds-on favorite to win Best Actor for a Musical or Comedy with his role as Dick Cheney in Vice. It’s not just that he made Cheney seem like a bloodthirsty war criminal; anybody could do that. It’s that he found a way to make the audience actually feel sorry for the guy. The film itself is unremarkable but Bale’s performance is fantastic.
Viggo Mortensen is the only real challenger, with his portrayal of a loud-mouth Italian driver in Green Book. It’s a good performance, but it shouldn’t be enough to deny Bale the prize.
Pick: Christian Bale (-145)
Odds for Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
|Best Actress in a Motion Picture — Drama||Odds at Book 1||Odds at Book 2|
|Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)||-250||-275|
|Glenn Close (The Wife)||+275||+275|
|Nicole Kidman (Destroyer)||+1100||+900|
|Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)||+1200||+1000|
|Rosamund Pike (A Private War)||+1400||+1200|
Lady Gaga is the very heavy favorite after her impressive performance in A Star is Born. When a singer tries their hand at acting, expectations are always low. And Lady Gaga certainly silenced her doubters. But that shouldn’t be enough to make her such an overwhelming favorite.
Glenn Close’s performance in The Wife is far more deserving of the award and has already won several accolades.
Pick: Glenn Close (+275)
Odds for Best Director
|Best Director||Odds at Book 1||Odds at Book 2|
|Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)||-250||-250|
|Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)||+275||+250|
|Adam McKay (Vice)||+1000||+900|
|Spike Lee (BlacKKKlansman)||+1400||+900|
|Peter Farrelly (Green Book)||+1600||+1600|
This one should go to Alfonso Cuaron. Bradley Cooper surpassed expectations with his directorial debut and Adam McKay received praise for Vice, but neither deserve the award. Roma is a powerful autobiographical film that should earn Cuaron his second Golden Globe for Best Director.
Pick: Alfonso Cuaron (-250)
Odds for Best Foreign Language Motion Picture
|Best Foreign Language Motion Picture||Odds at Book 1||Odds at Book 2|
|Never Look Away (Germany)||+650||N/A|
There’s not much to say here. Roma should easily claim this award. There’s not much to be made from the -600, but it’s easy money.
Pick: Roma (-600)
Odds for Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture
|Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture||Odds at Book 1||Odds at Book 2|
|Mahershala Ali (Green Book)||-130||-175|
|Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)||+180||+500|
|Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)||+400||+200|
|Adam Driver (BlacKKKlansman)||+2000||+2000|
|Sam Rockwell (Vice)||+2500||+1200|
Mahershala Ali won the Oscar for Best Supporting Actor with his performance in Moonlight, and now he looks set to win the Golden Globe equivalent with his performance in Green Book.
Richard E. Grant can be had at +500 odds, which seems a little too good to be true, especially when compared to +180 elsewhere. Grant has received widespread acclaim for his role in Can You Ever Forgive Me?, and has already received a ton of nominations. This is where the value is.
Pick: Richard E. Grant (+500)
Odds for Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture
|Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture||Odds at Book 1||Odds at Book 2|
|Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)||-250||-160|
|Amy Adams (Vice)||+235||+140|
|Emma Stone (The Favorite)||+1200||+1400|
|Claire Foy (First Man)||+1400||+1400|
|Rachel Weisz (The Favorite)||+2000||+1000|
This category seems ripe for an underdog success story. The Favorite has two nominees for the award, and both seem to have a realistic shot despite their long odds.
Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz play second fiddle to Olivia Colman (both figuratively and literally), and they make a fantastic trio. The option of Rachel Weisz at a ludicrous +2000, making her the clear value pick.
Pick: Rachel Weisz (+2000)
Odds for Best Television Limited Series or Motion Picture for Television
|Best Television Limited Series or Motion Picture For Television||Odds at Book 1||Odds at Book 2|
|The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story||-150||N/A|
|A Very English Scandal||+400||N/A|
|Escape at Dannemora||+2000||N/A|
The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story dominated the Primetime Emmys and it should do the same with this category. HBO’s Sharp Objects or the BBC’s A Very English Scandal could pinch the award, but that seems unlikely.
Pick: The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story (-150)