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2021 Golden Globe Awards Updated Odds for Film – Carey Mulligan Now Odds-On Favorite

JJ De La Torre

by JJ De La Torre in Entertainment

Feb 23, 2021 · 9:21 AM PST

Carey Mulligan attends the premiere of "Promising Young Woman" at the MARC theater during the 2020 Sundance Film Festival on Saturday, Jan. 25, 2020, in Park City, Utah. (Photo by Charles Sykes/Invision/AP)
  • The 78th Annual Golden Globes will be presented on February 28, 2021 in Beverly Hills, California
  • The Globes are being presented two months later than usual due to the Covid-19 pandemic
  • See below for updated 2021 Golden Globe Awards odds and what our best bets are for the most coveted film categories

The end of February marks the beginning of 2021’s awards season. Schitt’s Creek‘s Moira Rose would be so thrilled. Moreover, we have exciting and new updated 2021 Golden Globe Awards odds to breakdown.

Although this past year has looked quite different in the world of entertainment–particularly in the film industry– that isn’t going to stop Hollywood from handing out some hardware.

For those of you thinking “Aren’t the Golden Globes handed out at the beginning of the calendar year?”, you are correct. Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, show producers adjusted the schedule. The Globes were pushed back two months to allow for some breathing room.

With vaccinations being rolled out across the States, it may be even possible Hollywood’s elite will be rubbing shoulders in person for the awards ceremony– with masks on, of course.

While we rapidly approach the Golden Globes and rev up to Oscars season, the updated 2021 Golden Globe Awards odds in the big categories help hone in on who actually stands a chance of striking it big. Our 93rd Academy Awards tracker has kept us up to date on odds with nominees’ respective increase or decrease in probability and value.

Best Film Screenplay Odds

Nominee Odds
Nomadland -200
The Trial of the Chicago 7 +160
Promising Young Woman +900
Mank +2000
The Father +6000

All odds as of February 23

When we last checked in about the Golden Globe Awards odds, Aaron Sorkin’s Netflix courtroom drama The Trial of the Chicago 7 was sitting pretty. Though Chicago 7 isn’t the most likely contender any longer, it’s still in the race.

A lot of buzz was already surrounding Chloé Zhao’s Nomadland in the past month. Now, the western drama just landed on Hulu in the United States. With the film more readily available, even more people are talking about the film. In terms of odds, Nomadland skipped ahead of not just Chicago 7 but also Mank, moving from third to best odds.

Mank, on the other hand, has all but dropped out. Moving from second place odds of +300 to a steep +2000, David Fincher doesn’t look like he’ll be picking up a Best Screenplay award this year.

While Sorkin’s Chicago 7  isn’t exactly the most probable nominee anymore due to Nomadland‘s new odds, it’s all about the current social climate. It’s a great film and would have hit a home run any other year. But a film about a trial isn’t what 2020/2021 audiences are craving.

People want vulnerability and intimacy right now. Folks are at home detached from one another, so seeing a genuinely human story played out on screen is the next best thing to in-person human connection. Nomadland is going to take this one home.

Pick: Nomadland 

Best Director Odds

Nominee Odds
Chloé Zhao (Nomadland) -550
David Fincher (Mank) +600
Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7) +900
Regina King (One Night in Miami) +1600
Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman) +2000

While Nomadland is a heavy favorite for screenplay, it also looks like the most likely contender for Best Director. Chloé Zhao’s portrait of humanity in America has connected vastly with audiences and critics alike.

While Frances McDormand makes for a wonderful canvas on the silver screen, her performance was directed with such grace and nuance in a way that truly made the film special.

Zhao’s odds in the Best Director category have been in her favor since odds open. She’s always sat in the most favorable spot, but her odds have actually only gotten better as time goes on. They opened at +200 and have gone down to -500.

This will be a big year for Zhao. As the director of this film, she’s breaking ground. This woman of color is killing it in a role predominantly filled by white men. The world is finally ready for you, Chloé. This is the representation the world needs. Even more so, the award will be well deserved.

Pick: Chloé Zhao (Nomadland)


Best Film Actor Drama Odds

Nominee Odds
Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) -750
Anthony Hopkins (The Father) +700
Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal) +1200
Gary Oldman (Mank) +1600
Tahar Rahim (The Mauritian) +3200

While Tahar Rahim’s name is the only new one added to the category since odds opened, the shortlist of nominees is otherwise fairly similar to the initial odds.

No surprises here, folks. Chadwick Boseman still sits with the best odds for Best Film Actor – Drama, now at -850. Anthony Hopkins remains in the second slot with +650.

The late Chadwick Boseman’s performance in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom is being hailed as one of his best. While his 2020 death shocked fans and the entertainment community alike, at least audiences had one last shot to see him work his magic on screen.

Boseman’s role in Black Bottom is almost certainly going to take home the trophy. Not only does it honor his performance, but doubles as a sort of career achievement piece in this posthumous circumstance.

Pick: Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)

Best Film Actress Drama Odds

Nominee Odds
Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) -200
Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) +260
Frances McDormand (Nomadland) +400
Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman) +2500
Andra Day (United States vs. Billie Holliday) +4000

Unlike the Best Actor category where the Golden Globe Awards odds have remained nearly in place since they opened, the Best Film Actress – Drama odds have changed significantly.

Carey Mulligan has moved right into first place for her impressive performance in Promising Young Woman. Her striking performance in this poignant film has garnered more attention recently since premiering on home box office and select theaters.

Viola Davis was once sitting with better odds for her role in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, but Davis’ odds have dipped a bit due to Mulligan entering first place.

That isn’t to say Davis isn’t amazing. But Carey Mulligan’s performance has been a beacon of support for the #MeToo movement as well as a timely piece of film where the female subject is really taking back the reigns.

Pick: Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)

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