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Once the Heavy Favorite, A Star Is Born Losing Steam in Odds to Win Best Picture at Academy Awards

Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga star in
Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga star in "A Star is Born" (Warner Bros. Pictures)
  • A Star Is Born was the early favorite to win Best Picture at the Oscars
  • The movie has earned many nominations, but not many wins for Best Picture during awards season
  • Roma has gained steam and earned the most Oscar nominations

Just a few months ago, A Star Is Born was the shoe-in to win the Oscar Award for Best Picture. Lady Gaga, as the female lead in the movie, also looked like the favorite to win the Oscar for Best Actress. But as we’ve moved through awards season and the Oscar nominations have been announced, A Star Is Born has lost steam. Is it still worth a bet to win Best Picture?

Odds to Win Best Picture at the Academy Awards

Movie Odds to Win Best Picture at BetOnline (01/22/19)
Roma -110
Green Book +350
A Star Is Born +600
The Favourite +800
BlacKKKlansman +900
Bohemian Rhapsody +1200
Black Panther +2500
Vice +3300

A Star is Born Was the Early Favorite

There’s no question that A Star Is Born was the early favorite to be this year’s Oscars darling. The movie is a remake of a beloved film and has an all-star cast featuring Bradley Cooper, Lady Gaga, Andrew Dice Clay, Dave Chappelle, and Sam Elliott. The move was released on October 5th, 2018 and was a big success. Critics loved it – especially Gaga’s performance – and the story really resonated with viewers. Of the top movies in contention – The Favourite, Green Book, BlacKKKlansnman and RomaA Star Is Born has been the biggest box office success by a wide margin.

Based on that public perception, the odds were set early that this movie would sweep the board at the Academy Awards. However, a lot has changed as we’ve moved through the awards season.

What Do the Critics Think?

Often times, you can cash some bets at the Oscars based on what we’ve seen throughout the rest of the awards season. Taking a look at the awards table so far, the critics have mostly been in love with four other movies ahead of A Star Is Born. Those movies are Roma, which has collected 21 major awards for Best Motion Picture, The Favourite, which has won nine, Green Book, which earned six, and If Beale Street Could Talk, which has claimed four.

If you’re betting on the Oscars, you have to take note of that. Yes, Roma is on Netflix and in the past, those streaming services were shunned a little bit. Times have changed, though, and this is a legit contender. They have earned 10 nominations at the Oscars, which is the most of any film.

A Star is Born Didn’t Win Golden Globe for Best Picture

Of course, one of the best predictors for an Oscars win are the Golden Globes and A Star Is Born didn’t claim the win there, which is a bad sign. It was Bohemian Rhapsody, which stunned the audience and won the Best Motion Picture (Drama).

A Star Is Born has lost momentum and Roma is the current darling. That has moved the Cooper-Gaga hit from the favorite role down to underdog.

A Star Is Born did win Best Film at the Dublin Film Critics’ Circle, the Georgia Film Critics Association, the Satellite Awards, and the St. Louis Film Critics Association. While those are nice, those are major tells of what will come.

The bottom line is that the field is split, A Star Is Born has lost momentum and Roma is the current darling. That has moved the Cooper-Gaga hit from the favorite role down to underdog. We’ll likely see them win a couple of awards – especially for Best Music – but don’t expect them to win Best Motion Picture at the Oscars.

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For over 15 years, Dave has been working in mainstream media and sports betting. He hosted a station on Sirius Satellite Radio for four years, and is currently a senior writer for AskMen. He's interviewed hundreds of hundreds of high-profile sports stars like Shaquille O'Neal and Floyd Mayweather.