ESPY Awards Odds

Keith Olbermann has joked that, in the early days, the ESPYs were given to whomever would actually show up to the ceremony and collect the award. While the event has grown over the years, to the point where athletes actually make a point of attending, it’s still a show full of questionable choices and eye-rolling moments. But it also takes place on the one day of the year where no sports are happening, so people like me end up paying attention and setting odds. Point to you, ESPN.

The ESPYs also allow us sports fans a chance to pause and look back on what was a crazy last 12 months. But then, they kind of ruin that reflective process by giving fans the power to vote for the winners, which may explain why I never seem to agree with the choices. Regardless, it’s time to set the odds for who will win this year’s biggest awards. (I’ll also include who should win.)

Odds to win Best Male Athlete:

• LeBron James (basketball): 4/5
• Steph Curry (basketball): 15/4
• Cam Newton (football): 5/1
• Bryce Harper (baseball): 9/1

An NBA player has won the past five awards for Best Male Athlete, and oddly enough, three of them went to someone not named LeBron James. It’s a clear example of recency bias by voters, especially considering Dirk Nowitzki took home the honors in 2011. If the voting for this year’s award had ended a month and a half ago, Curry would likely take home his second-straight trophy. But since a recent NBA Finals is still fresh in folks’ minds, we all know who’s getting this one (and I’m okay with that).

Who should win: LeBron.

Odds to win Best Female Athlete:

• Breanna Stewart (basketball): 7/5
• Katie Ledecky (swimming): 7/2
• Elena Delle Donne (basketball): 4/1
• Simone Biles (gymnastics): 6/1

In non-Olympic years, it’s rare to see fringe sports like swimming or gymnastics get recognized, but this is a wide-open field with no Serena William or Ronda Rousey here to dominate. I personally think it’s time Stewart gets recognized for the four years of sheer dominance she had at UConn.

Who should win: Breanna Stewart.

Odds to win Best Championship Performance:

• LeBron James (basketball): 9/8
• Carli Lloyd (soccer): 3/1
• Von Miller (football): 3/1
• Sidney Crosby (hockey): 14/1

It’s crazy to think Carli Lloyd’s hat trick happened in the last year; it seems like so long ago. Both her and Von Miller had insane games on their sports’ biggest stage. And while they shouldn’t be punished for that stage only being one game, they probably will be. James won the award last year, when the Cavs were on the losing end of the NBA Finals. I can’t imagine that changes now that he’s on the winning side.

Who should win: Von Miller (a linebacker pretty much single-handedly won his team the Super Bowl).

Odds to win Best Game:

• Arizona Cardinals vs Green Bay Packers (NFC Divisional Playoff): 3/2
• Cleveland Cavaliers vs Golden State Warriors (NBA Finals Game 7): 11/5
• Villanova Wildcats vs North Carolina Tarheels (NCAA Finals): 11/5

While the list has so far had a basketball bias to it, this is America and football reigns supreme. Eight of the last ten “Best Games” came on the NFL or NCAA gridiron, and how can anyone not pick a game that featured two successful Hail Marys by the team that still lost?

Who should win: Cards vs Packers.

Odds to win Best Play:

• Aaron Rodgers’ Hail Mary: 9/4
• Kris Jenkins game winner: 5/2
• Michigan State’s punt block: 7/2
• LeBron James’ block: 4/1

Ya, ya, James’ block was iconic, but the rest of these plays were way more fun and each was the final play of the game. I don’t know if it’s more enjoyable seeing the devastation on the faces of Lions fans or Wolverines fans. Either way, not a banner year for the state of Michigan. Of course, only one play on this list caused a storm of Michael Jordan memes so great, it will be remembered long after humanity expires.

Who should win: Jenkins’ game winner.

Odds to win Best Upset:

• Holm over Rousey: 6/5
• Middle Tennessee over Michigan State: 2/1
• Roberta Vinci over Serena Williams: 3/1

Almost the entire nation picked Michigan State to win. I wonder if bracket-busted fans will hold that against Middle Tennessee? Either way, the Holm fight should be the favorite: it wasn’t just a shocking win, it was complete domination over last year’s Best Female Athlete. Still, just because it should be the favorite, doesn’t mean it should win…

Who should win: Leicester City, you uncultured swine!

(Photo Credit: ESPN [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons.)