2018 Safeway Open Odds: Can Brendan Steele Three-Peat?
- A new PGA Tour season is already upon us
- Should Patrick Cantlay be trusted as the favourite to win?
- The golfers with the best value to emerge victorious
If you blinked then you’ll be forgiven for thinking the PGA Tour season just ended – because it did, only two weeks ago at the Tour Championship.
The 2018-19 PGA Tour campaign begins in earnest this week at the Safeway Open with most of the worlds best taking the week off.
Only two of the top 50 ranked players in golf – Patrick Cantlay (22) and Phil Mickelson (24) are competing.
Odds to Win 2018 Safeway Open
| Player | Odds to win 2018 Safeway Open |
|---|---|
| Patrick Cantlay | +1200 |
| Brandt Snedeker | +2000 |
| Ryan Moore | +2200 |
| Joaquin Niemann | +2200 |
| Emiliano Grillo | +2200 |
| Phil Mickelson | +2500 |
| Adam Hadwin | +3300 |
| Brendan Steele | +3300 |
| Beau Hossler | +3300 |
| Abraham Ancer | +3300 |
Pass on Cantlay and Mickelson
Patrick Cantlay is one of the top young talents in the game, having secured his first PGA Tour victory last year.
He failed to secure a top-10, however, in the final three playoff events and is playing this golf course for the first time. The value just isn’t there with him.
Don’t get fooled into buying Phil Mickelson stock, either. Sure, he’s finished t-3rd and t-8th at this event the last two years, but he’s been absolutely dreadful of late, losing both Ryder Cup matches, finishing last in the Tour Championship, 58th at the BMW Championship and hasn’t had a top 10 finish since May.
Previous 5 Safeway Open Champions
| Year | Winner |
|---|---|
| 2017 | Brendan Steele |
| 2016 | Brendan Steele |
| 2015 | Emiliano Grillo |
| 2014 | Sangmoon Bae |
| 2013 | Jimmy Walker |
Is it Worth Betting on Steele to Three-Peat?
The immediate reaction is that betting on Brendan Steele is an absolute must, given he’s won this event the last two years.
Putt. Sip. Repeat. @Brendan_Steele has this Napa thing figured out. ? pic.twitter.com/RAVGb8gcdF
— Safeway Open (@SafewayOpen) October 1, 2018
However, Steele has fallen off a cliff since May, with his best finish in his last ten events being a pedestrian tie for 47th.
Steve Stricker was the last golfer (2009-11), to successfully pull of a three-peat at the same event, and the seven golfers attempting to accomplish the feat since then have a mixed bag of results. Don’t pull the trigger on Steele.
How Golfers Fared in Bid to Three-Peat Since 2011
| Player | Years Won | Tournament | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jhonattan Vegas | 2016-17 | RBC Canadian Open | T-29 |
| Daniel Berger | 2016-17 | FedEx St. Jude Classic | CUT |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 2016-17 | Waste Management Phoenix Open | W/D |
| Justin Thomas | 2016-17 | CIMB Classic | T-17 |
| Matt Every | 2014-15 | Arnold Palmer Invitational | CUT |
| Jimmy Walker | 2014-15 | Sony Open in Hawaii | T-13 |
| Ryan Moore | 2013-14 | CIMB Classic | T-10 |
Safeway Open Best Value Picks
- Luke List (+4000): Destined to finally get that breakthrough victory. Posted five top-5 finishes last season. The 5th-longest driver on tour is too good to not have a PGA Tour victory.
- Kevin Tway (+5500): Made 12 of final 13 cuts last season, including a 54-hole co-lead at RBC Canadian Open, to go along with three other top 10’s.
- Kelly Kraft (+15000): Ultimate boom or bust player: two 2nd place finishes and two 3rds in last two seasons, but also a ton of missed cuts. At such long odds, worth the gamble.
Michael "Hound Dog" Harrison is well known in the sports industry as the resident statistician for the SC with Jay Onrait Show. He has worked at TSN for over 16 years, where he's been featured on Sportscentre, That's Hockey, That's Hockey 2Nite, The Masters preview shows, and several more.
