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2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational 4th Round Odds, Predictions and Preview

Michael Harrison

by Michael Harrison in Golf

Updated Mar 5, 2022 · 4:27 PM PST

Billy Horschel watches tee shot
Billy Horschel tees off on the 18th hole during the second round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational golf tournament Friday, March 4, 2022, in Orlando, Fla. (AP Photo/John Raoux)
  • Billy Horschel and Talor Gooch co-lead the Arnold Palmer Invitational by one shot over Viktor Hovland after three rounds
  • Eight golfers are within four shots of the lead through 54 holes in a wide-open affair
  • See the updated 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds below for Sunday’s final round within the story below

The field faced a stern test at Bay Hill Club and Lodge on Saturday, with many high scores posted amid gusting winds and a firm golf course.

Some of the biggest names in the sport struggled to maintain their grip, including 2018 champion Rory McIlroy, who shot a 4-over, 76 to drop four back. 36-hole leader Viktor Hovland stumbled late too, opening the door for Billy Horschel and Talor Gooch to grab the co-lead.

Entering the tournament, Hovland was one of the golfers we had an eye on to claim the title. He was seemingly in control with a four stroke edge, but it slowly dissipated.

Hovland is joined by other favorites to win that are playing catch-up like McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler, who matched the best score on moving day to get right into the thick of things (68). With Bay Hill showing its teeth this week, Sunday promises to be another difficult day, where pars will be at a premium.

Read on to see the updated odds and the best bets heading into Sunday’s final round.

Updated 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds

Golfer Position Score Odds
Billy Horschel T-1st -7 +275
Talor Gooch T-1st -7 +300
Viktor Hovland 3rd -6 +330
Scottie Scheffler 4th -5 +500
Rory McIlroy T-6th -3 +1600
Gary Woodland 5th -4 +1800
Matt Fitzpatrick T-9th -2 +4000
Chris Kirk T-6th -3 +4500
Russell Henley T-9th -2 +6500
Graeme McDowell T-6th -3 +8000

Odds as of March 5th at DraftKings


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Hovland In Prime Position For Biggest Win

Even though he had a disappointing back nine holes on Saturday, where he shot a 4-over, 40, Norwegian sensation Viktor Hovland is in position for his biggest win of his career.

He came into this tournament hot, winning three times in his last seven worldwide starts, and seemed poised to add to his trophy case.

The highlight of his third round was his hole out eagle bunker shot on the par-5, 6th, but his putter betrayed him shortly thereafter, particularly the lag putts. Even with his poor performance on the dance floor Saturday, he still ranks tenth in SG: putting this week, showing that this round may have been the outlier, as opposed to a trend.


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Billy Horschel is attempting to emerge victorious in his home state of Florida for the first time, and despite him winning six times on tour, this is his first 54-hole lead since way back in 2014. Talor Gooch, the other co-leader, has one PGA Tour title to his credit, and is still relatively new to chances in big time championships.

We were high on Hovland at the start of the week due to his ability to close and his sparkling tee-to-green game (first in scoring average, eighth in greens in regulation this season).

Though he hasn’t won as much as Horschel (three times), he’s the superior young talent and the player I’d be looking at, considering his odds are longer than the two-top on the board.

2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational Best Live Value Picks

  1. Rory McIlroy (+1600): Rory McIlroy joined Viktor Hovland as another European with a disappointing third round, but he’s still lurking, just four behind. He is no stranger to erasing deficits to win on this track, as he trailed by two in 2018 but then won by three after a sizzling 64 on Sunday. Was dominant tee-to-green in first two rounds, gaining nearly ten shots on his competitors. He lost three in that category on moving day, but has the game to recover to regain his early tournament form.
  2. Gary Woodland (+1800): 2019 US Open champion Gary Woodland seems to finally be turning a corner in his game after a T-5th showing at last week’s Honda Classic. He’s just three back entering the final round, and he thrives on difficult course setups. Sixth in strokes gained: putting in the first 54 holes.
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