2022 Valspar Championship 4th Round Odds, Predictions and Preview

• Davis Riley leads Matthew NeSmith by two shots after three rounds of the Valspar Championship
• Just five golfers are within five shots of the lead as the top-five have separated themselves
• See the updated 2022 Valspar Championship odds below for Sunday’s final round within the story below

A far easier than normal Cooperhead Course at Innisbrook has greeted the PGA Tour’s best this week, with the top four golfers on the board all posting the best 54-hole scores to par in this championship’s history. With the track playing easier, Matthew NeSmith was able to shoot a 10-under, 61 on Friday, and Davis Riley nearly matched that with a 9-under, 62 on Saturday to open up a two shot edge.

Neither player has won before on the biggest stage, so the final pairing on Riley and NeSmith will lack experience as they try to close out the biggest win of their respective careers. Heading into the tournament, Justin Thomas was the co-favorite to claim the trophy, and he’s lurking three shots back should the top duo stumble. He also features prominently on the Masters odds.

Riley and NeSmith were nowhere near the favorites before play started on Thursday. Defending champion Sam Burns is tied with JT, while 2017 winner Adam Hadwin rounds out the top-five.

Read on to see the updated odds and the best bets heading into Sunday’s final round.

2022 Valspar Championship Odds

Odds as of March 19th at DraftKings Sportsbook

First 54 Hole Lead For Davis Riley

With apologies to the top two golfers on the leaderboard in Davis Riley and Matthew NeSmith, it is the two players tied for third in Justin Thomas and Sam Burns that are the ones to fear. Such is the case for players who haven’t been able to close out a championship on the PGA Tour, as the top-two haven’t. Riley was outstanding on moving day, posting nine birdies and nine pars for a scintillating round of 62.

Davis Riley posts a career low and bogey-free 9-under 62 in R3 of the Valspar Championship (previous: 65/R1/2022 Sony Open in Hawaii)

Seeks first PGA TOUR win in 25th career start (best: T7/2021 Butterfield Bermuda Championship)

— PGA TOUR Communications (@PGATOURComms) March 19, 2022

The odds of both Thomas and Burns are still so low, as oddsmakers agree that those two experienced veterans are ready to pounce on Sunday. Thomas is searching for his first title since last year’s Players Championship, while Burns made the 2021 Valspar his first win, then followed that up with another triumph at the Sanderson Farms Championship later that year.

Thomas and Burns are the top-two players in strokes gained: tee-to-green for the week, picking up over nine shots on their competitors. The nod should be ever so slightly given to JT over Burns simply because he’s closed out more titles (14 compared to two).

It’s difficult to trust Riley, given that this is his 54-hole lead on tour plus he’s 176th in final round scoring average this season. 54 hole leaders on the Florida swing have gone 0-for-3 in the last three tournaments.

2022 Valspar Championship Best Live Value Picks

1. Adam Hadwin (+2000): Adam Hadwin is third behind Thomas and Burns in SG: tee-to-green this week, gaining over eight shots on the field. He’s five back, and came into this week off a top-ten finish at the Players Championship. He knows how to get it done on this course, having taken the 2017 iteration. Four of his last five final rounds he’s shot in the 60’s. Should the track play difficult on the final day, his 19th ranked greens in regulation and 25th ranked driving accuracy this season will come in handy.
2. Xander Schauffele (+5500): If you’re looking for a longshot bet, Xander Schauffele could be the perfect mark. He’s seven strokes adrift, yet all four of his career wins have been the come-from-behind variety. In each of those, he’s shot 68 or better, with the latest one at the 2019 Sentry TOC being a stunning 11-under, 62. Eighth in final round scoring for the campaign, where he’s shot a 68 or better in four of six Sunday’s. Second in SG: off-the-tee through 54 holes, and fifth in scrambling.