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Sentry Tournament of Champions Odds, Predictions & Picks

Michael Harrison

by Michael Harrison in Golf

Jan 2, 2023 · 7:59 AM PST

Jon Rahm acknowledges the crowd
January 9, 2022; Maui, Hawaii, USA; Jon Rahm acknowledges the crowd after making his putt on the 13th hole during the final round of the Sentry Tournament of Champions golf tournament at Kapalua Resort - The Plantation Course. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
  • The exclusive Sentry Tournament of Champions tees off Thursday, January 5th
  • Jon Rahm is the +600 favorite over Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele
  • Below, see the Sentry Tournament of Champions odds to win, plus picks and the best-value bets

The first PGA Tour event of 2023 heads to Maui, Hawaii for the Sentry Tournament of Champions. It’s a fantastic field, with 17 of the top-20 players in the world competing (Rory McIlroy, Cameron Smith and Shane Lowry aren’t teeing it up). In the past, only winners from the previous season were invited to this tourney. Now, winners and any players who were in the top-30 of the final FedEx Cup points list last year are exempt. The field consists of 39 golfers.

Last year, Cameron Smith (not playing because he’s at LIV golf) set a tournament record, shooting a blistering 34-under-par total to defeat Jon Rahm by a stroke. Should it not be windy, the Kapalua Plantation Course, which is the only par-73 on the PGA Tour, ends up being defenseless. Seven of the last eight champions have all shot at least 20-under-par en route to the title.

2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions Odds

Golfers Odds
Jon Rahm +600
Scottie Scheffler +1000
Xander Schauffele +1000
Justin Thomas +1100
Patrick Cantlay +1100
Tony Finau +1600
Matt Fitzpatrick +1800
Collin Morikawa +1800
Viktor Hovland +2000
Sungjae Im +2000
Cameron Young +1800
Sam Burns +2200
Tom Kim +2500
Jordan Spieth +2800
Will Zalatoris +2800
Hideki Matsuyama +3000
Max Homa +3500
Adam Scott +3500
Aaron Wise +3500
Corey Conners +4000

Odds as of January 2nd at DraftKings Sportsbook. Claim a DraftKings Sportsbook promo code to make your Sentry Tournament of Champions bets

Jon Rahm is the +600 favorite to emerge victorious after he nearly won it last year, finishing runner-up. Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele are priced at +1000 to claim the first title of 2023.


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Patrick Cantlay A Strong Contender

It’s hardly a surprise to see Patrick Cantlay among the favorites this week, but at +1100 odds, there are three golfers with a shorter price than him. In his last ten tournaments, he’s racked up top-10’s on six occasions, to go along with nine top-20’s (including a win at the BMW Championship). In his last twelve rounds at this track, he’s posted some impressive ‘strokes gained’ numbers.

Patrick Cantlay’s Strokes Gained Stats In Last 12 Rounds at Kapalua Plantation

Putting Short Game Total Approach Tee-To-Green Ball Striking
1 2 4 4 8 11

In four appearances at the TOC, Cantlay was T-15 in 2018, 4th in 2020, T-13 in 2021 and last year, was fourth again. With five victories in the last two seasons, Cantlay is absolutely someone worth monitoring this week. He was also third best last season (of those teeing it up), in birdie average, which is critical for success at this venue.

Past Five Sentry Tournament Of Champions Winners

Year Winner
2022 Cameron Smith
2021 Harris English
2020 Justin Thomas
2019 Xander Schauffele
2018 Dustin Johnson

2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions Picks and Value Bets

  1. Collin Morikawa (+1800): Collin Morikawa has found himself on the periphery of contention for the trophy here the last three years, going T-5, T-7, T-7. In those twelve rounds, he’s second in ball striking and fourth in total strokes gained at Kapalua. He’s coming off a sixth place result at the Hero World Challenge, and had five top-5’s last season. For his lofty standards, that’s considered a down here, but grabbing him at these odds is awfully enticing.
  2. Brian Harman (+4500): Brian Harman comes into this championship in fine form, finishing runner-up in his last two starts last year (RSM Classic, Mayakoba). In six of his last seven outings he’s been top-25 or better. In 2018, Harman was third at this event and in his last twelve rounds, he’s fifth in total strokes gained. Will be an interesting name to consider in the top 5/10 markets.
  3. Russell Henley (+5000): Russell Henley won in his second last start of 2022 at the Worldwide Technology Championship at Mayakoba. He loves playing in Hawaii, having won the Sony Open in the past and was runner-up there a year ago. Henley has a third place showing at this event (2015), and was ranked inside the top-10 in birdie average (of those competing), in 2022.


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