2019 Kentucky Derby Winning Trainer Odds: Bob Baffert Listed as +350 Favorite

• The Kentucky Derby will be run on May 4th in Louisville
• Trainer Bob Baffert has several strong contenders seeking his 6th Derby win
• Where can you find value betting on trainers?

With apologies to City of Light and Mike Smith, trainer Bob Baffert is horse racing’s biggest star. He has trained the only two Triple Crown winners of the past 40 years, and has captured the Kentucky Derby five times. Will this year be number six?

Betting on what trainer will capture the Derby is a bit more complicated than betting on jockeys or horses. Trainers can have more than one entrant in a given race. Baffert’s stable in particular is deep and talented.

Let’s look at the updated 2019 Kentucky Derby trainer lines.

2019 Kentucky Derby Trainer Odds

*Odds taken 04/20/19

Bob Baffert

At the age of 66, Baffert has done it all. He has not only won the Kentucky Derby five times but had a horse finish in the money on 11 occasions. Baffert has claimed seven Preakness titles, and won the Belmont Stakes three times. He has 15 Breeders Cup victories including three in the Classic. But that’s all history. What does he have going on now?

Of four Kentucky Derby horses likely to go off at less than 10/1, Baffert trains three of them. Baring an injury he’ll send out Game Winner, Roadster, and Improbable. This year happens to be wide open, but having three power players puts you in a pretty good position.

Richard Mandella

Like Baffert, Mandella has been through the wars. The 68-year-old has raced six horses in the Kentucky Derby, and though he hasn’t won, he is plenty accomplished. Mandella has won nine Breeders Cup races and the Pacific Classic on four occasions. He took the 2004 Dubai World Cup with Pleasantly Perfect.

In a coup of sorts, Mandella got Mike Smith to ride his horse, Omaha Beach, at this year’s Kentucky Derby instead of Baffert’s Roadster. Both are top contenders, and Smith, who rode for Baffert when they captured the Triple Crown last year together with Justify, clearly prefers Mandella’s colt.

Jason Servis

While Servis is in his 60’s too, he has only been training since the early 2000’s. For his career he wins almost a quarter of his races, and recently that total has been north of 30-percent. His brother, John, trained Derby winner Smarty Jones.

A little luck and a little skill has Servis with a serious contender this year. Florida Derby winner Maximum Security was not expected to be special. His first race was a maiden claiming event, meaning he could have been purchased by anyone interested. Nobody was willing to pay $16,000, Servis kept Maximum Security, and three wins later he is four-for-four lifetime and primed to show speed early in Louisville and see if he can carry it all the way to the wire.

Bill Mott

Maybe best known as the great Cigar’s trainer in the 1990’s, Mott is a Hall of Famer who has done just about everything except win the Kentucky Derby. He has won 10 Breeders Cup races including two Classics, and took home the Belmont Stakes with Drosselmeyer in 2010.

Mott is a Hall of Famer who has done just about everything except win the Kentucky Derby.

Wood Memorial winner Tacitus will be a popular choice among bettors on Derby Day for Mott. Tacitus lost his first race, but has won each of his last three, with the level of competition growing in each. Mott also has Country House ready to roll. The son of Preakness winner Looking at Lucky, Country House has just one victory, but has finished among the top group of horses in three Derby prep races, and if he halts his tendency to break slowly could be dangerous.

The Bet

If you conservatively think each of Baffert’s horses will be around 8/1 that gets them a cumulative total of about a 33% chance to win. That percentage should mean odds around +200 or +205. However, you are getting +350 which indicates a 22% chance. Whether you love or hate Baffert’s crop, he is better than a one in five shot of winning. It’s not often you get value with the best.

Pick: Bob Baffert (+350)