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2020 Breeders’ Cup Classic Odds & Betting Preview: Tiz The Law and Improbable Co-Favorites at +250 Odds

Dave F.

by Dave F. in Horse Racing

Nov 4, 2020 · 9:01 AM PST

Bob Baffert
Trainer Bob Baffert has won the Breeders Cup Classic three times and has three entrants on Saturday. Photo by @timesunion (Twitter)
  • The Breeders Cup Classic will be run Saturday at Keeneland Race Course
  • Belmont Stakes winner Tiz The Law and Whitney Stakes champ Improbable are the favorites
  • Where can we find the best betting value on the Breeders Cup Classic?

While the Triple Crown season was upended by COVID-19 this year, changing the dates, order, and even the length of one of the races, the Breeders Cup is mostly unscathed. The year-end thoroughbred world championships are being run as scheduled the first weekend in November. The Classic, with a purse of $6 million, features the best of the best.

Breeders Cup Classic odds have had Maximum Security as the favorite for a long time, but Improbable and Tiz the Law are getting more support now. They aren’t the only options either.

Let’s look carefully at the odds to win the 2020 Breeders Cup Classic, consider some of the serious options, and ponder where there is betting value.

2020 Breeders’ Cup Classic Odds

Horse Odds
Tiz the Law +250
Improbable +250
Maximum Security +400
Authentic +550
Tom’s d’Etat +700
By My Standards +2500
Global Campaign +2500
Tacitus +3300
Higher Power +3300
Title Ready +4000

Odds taken November 2nd at Bet365

The Breeders Cup has been run each year since 1984 and the Classic, as always, will be run on the main track at a-mile-and-a-quarter.

This is the second time the event is taking place at Keeneland, in Lexington, KY. In 2015 Keeneland hosted and American Pharoah was the winner.

American Pharoah won during a three-year span that saw trainer Bob Baffert take the event with a different three-year-old in each running. However, since Baffert led Arrogate to the winner’s circle in 2016, older horses have prospered the last three years.

The weather on Saturday is supposed to be perfect in Kentucky, low 70’s with little chance of rain. Post time for the Classic is 5:13 pm EST. It will be televised by NBC.

Favorites

Tiz the Law has six wins in eight races and earnings of over $2.6 million as he makes his final start as a three-year-old. After winning the Belmont Stakes in June, he cruised to victory in August’s Travers Stakes, before running second in the Kentucky Derby on September 5.

Tiz The Law may have run out of gas in Louisville. It was his fifth start of the year, and third since the middle of June. He has now been off for two months but faces older foes for the first time.

Improbable has been the best horse in the country since the start of June. Baffert’s four-year-old won the Gold Cup in California, the Whitney Stakes at Saratoga, and dominated Maximum Security at Santa Anita.

One of three Baffert entries in the Classic, Improbable finished fifth in last year’s Breeders Cup Dirt Mile, and was also fifth in the 2019 Kentucky Derby.

Other Top Contenders

Maximum Security got to the finish line first at the 2019 Kentucky Derby, and though he was disqualified, his subsequent work has been stellar. He has 10 wins in 13 starts with earnings of more than $12 million.

Though Maximum Security won the richest race ever run, the $20 million Saudi Cup in February, his owners haven’t seen any of the cash. The prize money has been withheld because trainer Jason Servis was arrested and charged with doping violations. Maximum Security was transferred to Baffert’s barn where he beat two weak fields at Del Mar before Improbable beat him last time out.

Kentucky Derby winner Authentic is yet another strong option for Baffert.

A winner of five out of seven career races, Authentic just missed in October’s Preakness Stakes, falling to filly Swiss Skydiver.

Seven-year-old Tom’s d’Etat appeared to reach career heights late last year and extended that strong string into 2020. He had impressively beaten really good horses in four straight races before facing Improbable in The Whitney.

Tom’s d’Etat beat Improbable in April. A layoff since the first of August might be just what the veteran needs.

Longshot

Global Campaign is taking a serious step up in class but was asked to go a-mile-and-a-quarter for the first time last time out at Saratoga and really enjoyed the distance.

A winner of six races in nine tries and three of his last four, it is possible Global Campaign is running his best now. You’ll never know how a horse will fair against top competition until they try it out. We’ll learn a lot about Global Campaign on Saturday.

The Pick

If you don’t believe there is a three-year-old super horse in this field and think Maximum Security and Tom’s d’Etat have completed the best running of their careers, Improbable looks awfully tough. The price is reasonable for the horse who is running his best and is in the prime of his career.

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