Belmont Park Odds & Picks – 2023 Belmont Stakes Undercard
- The Belmont Stakes undercard is as good as any race day in America, rivaling the Breeders Cup
- With eight graded stakes races before the Test of the Champion, there are plenty of opportunities to make a score in your Belmont Stakes undercard picks
- Where can we find a price, and which favorites are trustworthy Saturday in New York?
The Belmont Stakes undercard is a bonanza of high-end racing. Many of the sport’s biggest stars will be in action prior to Saturday’s main event. From a handicapping perspective, our Belmont Park picks are a mix of favorites that feel dependable, and longer shots that hopefully can cash for a good number.
It is really easy to focus all of your attention on the Belmont Stakes, particularly this year, with a compelling field and on the 50th anniversary of Secretariat’s triumph. The more time people spend on the big race, the less time they are focused on making money on the outstanding undercard.
Login to your preferred horse racing betting sites, and let’s break down the Belmont Stakes card.
Belmont Stakes Undercard Picks
| Race | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| True North Stakes | Strobe | +200 |
| Poker Stakes | Chez Pierre | +100 |
| Brooklyn Stakes | Lone Rock | +600 |
| Ogden Phipps Stakes | Clairiere | +100 |
| Woody Stephens Stakes | Arabian Lion | +400 |
| Jaipur Stakes | Caravel | +300 |
| Metroplitan Handicap | Charge It | +600 |
| Manhattan Stakes | Ottoman Fleet | +250 |
The stakes excitement begins at 12:29 pm EST with Fox Sports 1 televising the early races until Fox begins coverage at 4pm. With a full card to consider, different races may call for varying strategies. Knowing, understanding, and utilizing many types of horse racing bets gives you the best opportunity to pick and choose and give yourself a good chance to profit. Let’s look through the races and find the best bets for Saturday’s Belmont Stakes undercard.
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True North Prediction
This six-and-a-half furlong sprint on the main track for older boys feels like a two-horse race. Breeders Cup Sprint winner Elite Power (-125) started his career with three ho-hum performances, and since has won six straight. His only race this year was an easy victory over strong competition in Saudi Arabia. Horses often struggle in their first race back from the Middle East, but that win was in February, so there has been ample time to recover.
Strobe (+200) beat Elite Power on the 2022 Kentucky Derby undercard. That was Elite Power’s last loss, and Strobe’s first-ever race. Strobe has four wins in six starts, but his stakes debut didn’t go great. He finished second on April 15 against Grade 3 foes at Oaklawn Park. That said, the winner, Skelly, has proven to be a monster, and third-place finisher Tejano Twist is pretty accomplished too.
Anarchist (+1000) is in good form and coming off his quickest race. The improving four-year-old has run well on dirt, but his best recent efforts are on turf and a synthetic course.
True North Picks: Strobe (+200)
Poker Prediction
A one-turn, one-mile turf challenge for older boys begs the question, can anybody beat Chez Pierre (+100)? He beat Breeders Cup winner Modern Games in a Grade 1 at Keeneland in April and has lost just once in seven tries. Chez Pierre is three for three going a mile.
Emmanuel (+450) beat Chez Pierre at Tampa Bay Downs in February. However, that race was an extra sixteenth of a mile, and since then Emmanuel was no match for the favorite in Lexington. On the Preakness Stakes undercard, Emmanuel finished a close third going a mile and an eighth.
Emaraaty (+600) hasn’t run since September, but his mile-and-a-sixteenth score at Saratoga was a career-best. An eight-year-old, he has never beaten this quality of horse and has failed in two tries at Belmont Park.
Poker Picks: Chez Pierre (+100)
Brooklyn Prediction
Like the Belmont Stakes, this is a mile-and-a-half dirt race. The Brooklyn is for older boys, and there is no clear favorite. Warrant (+250) beat several of these rivals at Churchill Downs going the same distance early on Derby week. He also lost to a couple of these rivals in a marathon at Oaklawn Park in April. Warrant finished second in this event last year.
Next (+300) was the favorite, but lost to Warrant last time out. Prior to a four-month rest, he won huge going even further at Keeneland against Grade 2 foes. A former claimer, only his final two races of 2022 would compete well with this group.
Lightly raced Bright Future (+400) is stepping up in competition. He has two wins in four starts, and has run fast, but has never gone beyond a mile, and is making his stakes debut.
Lone Rock (+600) is eight years old but has won going this distance five times, three more than the rest of the field combined. He won this race by 11 lengths in 2021 and finished third last year. He was not competitive against Warrant and Red Run (+600) last time out. His seasonal debut was a second-place effort behind Calibrate (+1000).
Red Run has consistently been in the mix but has two wins in 15 starts. Calibrate was +3030 when he beat Lone Rock, and then got run off the track by Warrant and others on May 3.
Brooklyn Picks: Lone Rock (+600)
Ogden Phipps Prediction
Four of six horses in this one-turn mile-and-a-sixteenth dirt challenge are grade one winners. These are among the best older female horses in the country. The Breeders Cup Distaff was perhaps the best race all of last year, with a thrilling finish and high-end horses.
Clairiere (+120) just missed, falling to Malathaat, a winner among winners. Clairiere finished second behind Secret Oath (+200) in March and then avenged that loss by coming out of nowhere to beat last year’s Kentucky Oaks winner in Oaklawn’s Apple Blossom Handicap.
Secret Oath has just a single victory in eight races since the Oaks and wasn’t close in the Breeders Cup. That said, her three races this year are all very strong, a win and two very tight seconds.
Played Hard (+600) beat Secret Oath on this year’s Kentucky Oaks undercard. She has won four of her last five races with the May score the best of her career.
Search Results (+400) is two-for-three at Belmont Park and was third, less than a length behind Played Hard at Churchill Downs last month. She was third, behind Clairiere, in this race last year.
Pass the Champagne (+800) has not faced this level of competition, but is coming off her best career race. The horse she beat by more than five lengths at Belmont in May returned to finish a tight second last weekend in a high-end race in Louisville.
Ogden Phipps Picks: Clairiere (+120)
Woody Stephens Prediction
There are a decent number of options in this seven-furlong Grade 1 dirt event for three-year-olds, but most of the attention will be centered on General Jim (+350) and Arabian Lion (+400). General Jim beat several of these rivals on the Derby undercard, while Arabian Lion crushed a lesser field a few hours before the Preakness Stakes three weeks ago in Baltimore. General Jim is an $850,000 son of Into Mischief who has four wins in seven starts. His last race is by far his best. Arabian Lion is a $600,000 son of Triple Crown winner Justify trained by Bob Baffert. He ran a close second in the Lexington Stakes in April before his romp at Pimlico.
Harrodsburg (+1200) and Federal Judge (+800) have both only run twice but showed significant potential. They are stepping up in class for high percentage barns.
Victory Formation (+1000) has faced tough competition and even beat Angel of Empire back in January. He has three wins in five starts and is cutting back from longer races. He was a tight third behind Belmont challengers Tapit Shoes and Red Route One in April.
Baffert also has Fort Bragg (+500). He finished just behind General Jim and well ahead of Gilmore (+1200) in the Pat Day Mile. Fort Bragg has mostly faced good horses, with inconsistent results. Gilmore had to go very wide last time out, and has just one victory, but top rider Irad Ortiz takes the mount.
Woody Stephens Picks: Arabian Lion (+400)
Jaipur Prediction
Casa Creed (+450) has won this six-furlong turf sprint for older horses each of the last two years. He is three for four at Belmont Park and has made over $2 million, winning seven of 30 career races. Casa Creed has run once this year, in Saudi Arabia, and finished a tight second in a lucrative group two event.
Caravel (+300) is the rare female horse who has more than held her own against the boys. She has won four straight, two against males, and has beaten several of the rivals signed up to face her in this one. Her last five wins have all come going five-and-a-half-furlongs, and while it doesn’t seem like a problem, the plan was for her to go to Europe and compete at Royal Ascot, but for whatever reason the itinerary changed.
Arrest Me Red (+600) lost to Caravel in the Breeders Cup last year, and at Keeneland in April. He was the favorite on the Derby undercard but finished a well-beaten fifth. Casa Creed beat him by half a length in this race last year.
Big Invasion (+600) was behind Arrest Me Red on the first Saturday in May but had trouble down the stretch. He has seven wins in 10 starts but has not beaten this caliber of competition.
Jaipur Picks: Caravel (+300)
Metropolitan Prediction
The $1 million one-turn Grade 1 Met Mile is a whale of a race with a clear-cut and reasonable favorite. Breeders Cup Dirt Mile champ Cody’s Wish (+140) has won five straight including taking the Churchill Downs Handicap on the Derby undercard.
Cody’s Wish has not only been winning but doing so against strong competition in dominant fashion. That said, this might be the best field he has ever faced.
Zandon (+500) never seems to win but still pocketed $1.5 million in 10 career races. He finished third in last year’s Kentucky Derby and has hit the board in four of five races since. That said, he hasn’t been that close to winning any of them and lost to Repo Rocks (+400) by five lengths last month at Belmont. Repo Rocks has been terrific against lesser competition over the last eight months or so, winning five of six races since moving into Jamie Ness’s barn.
Charge It (+600) was a non-factor in the 2022 Derby, but responded to win his only career start at Belmont Park by 23 lengths. He took off the second half of last year and has just one victory in three starts this season. That said, he clipped heels down the stretch in his most recent race, and like Zandon has a ton of potential. Because they are facing Cody’s Wish, the price is tempting.
White Abarrio (+1000) was nowhere to be seen in the Derby last year and then lost six races in a row before a career-best victory at Gulfstream Park in March. He has a new trainer now and has made $1.1 million in 12 starts. All five of his wins are in Florida.
Met Mile Picks: Charge It (+600)
Manhattan Prediction
Up to the Mark (+160) and Ottoman Fleet (+250) are likely to get the majority of the play in this mile-and-a-quarter turf test for older boys. Up to the Mark ran his best career race winning a mile-and-an-eighth Grade 1 on the Derby undercard. That came on the heels of him running third in a very high-level Grade 1 one-mile test at Keeneland. He has run on the sod four times and has three wins.
Ottoman Fleet ran on Derby Day but in Belmont’s mile-and-an-eighth Fort Marcy Stakes. The nearly two-length win, in his U.S. debut, was impressive for top European trainer Charlie Appleby. Today William Buick, Appleby’s number one jockey, makes the trip across the pond to ride. Buick was aboard Ottoman Fleet when he won a Group 3 event in Great Britain in April.
While Ottoman Fleet beat Warren Point (+500) in Great Britain in September, Warren Point was actually the favorite. Also trained by Appleby, Warren Point is four for five at this distance. He made his North American debut a month ago, and finished fifth, giving way in the last eighth or a mile in a mile-and-three-eighths Grade 1 event at Belmont. Red Knight (+800) and Soldier Rising (+1200) beat him that day. That said, they both seem to prefer longer distances.
Manhattan Picks: Ottoman Fleet (+250)
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Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.
