Belmont Stakes Best Bets: Win, Place & Show Picks
- Saturday’s Belmont Stakes is the final leg of the Triple Crown
- Choosing the winner is helpful, but don’t ignore the chance to profit by predicting placed horses
- Where can we find betting value in the win, place, and show pools for our 2023 Belmont Stakes best bets?
Forte was going to be the Kentucky Derby favorite until he was scratched by the Churchill Downs veterinarian with a minor injury on the first Saturday in May. He makes his Triple Crown debut in the Belmont Stakes and will be the favorite. Whether you like Forte, who has the best resume among three-year-olds, or think his 10-week gap between races is too long to now try and win going the marathon distance of a mile-and-a-half, you should also be considering who will finish second and third.
Last year Mo Donegal paid $7.20 on a two-dollar win bet at the Belmont Stakes, while Nest cashed for $5.30 to place, and Skippylongstocking rewarded backers $5.60 to show. Since betting to place means you get paid if your horse finishes first or second, and a show bet is first, second or third, betting underneath was pretty profitable considering the safety net in 2022.
Over the last decade, we have seen a winning payout of over $30, three winners cash for more than $20, a $23 place horse, and a $13 show price. Belmont Stakes odds give you a pretty good idea of who will pay well, and who won’t, even underneath. Let’s fire up your horse racing betting apps, and consider how to attack The Test of the Champion
Belmont Stakes Best Bets for 2023
| Horse | Win Odds | Place Odds | Show Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forte | +200 | -125 | -225 |
| Angel of Empire | +300 | +120 | -150 |
| Tapit Trice | +400 | +160 | -115 |
| National Treasure | +600 | +250 | +130 |
| Arcangel | +800 | +310 | +165 |
| Hit Show | +1000 | +375 | +200 |
| Red Route One | +1600 | +600 | +310 |
| Tapit Shoes | +2500 | +900 | +475 |
| Il Miracolo | +2500 | +900 | +475 |
Forte is the favorite for a winning bet in the Belmont Stakes odds, with Angel of Empire and Tapit Trice getting plenty of support too. While the win pool gets all the attention, place and show are worthwhile wagers too.
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Once you get used to it, how to bet on horse racing isn’t difficult. The best Belmont Stakes predictions are in the eye of the beholder, but let’s consider several options.
The favorite failed to win the Kentucky Derby or Preakness Stakes this year. In horse racing, favorites generally win about one-third of the time. However, over the years the Belmont Stakes has been chalky. Sixty-six of 154 runnings have gone to the favorite, including each of the last three years.
Best Belmont Stakes Win Bet
What are you looking for?
Forte has the best resume but hasn’t run in a long time, and his last couple of races have not been as impressive as his work as a two-year-old. That said, he beat Mage twice in Florida this year, and that rival went on to win the Kentucky Derby.
Angel of Empire was one of only two horses to really give Mage a run for his money on the first Saturday in May. He also appears like a horse who will enjoy more distance.
Tapit’s offspring have won the Belmont Stakes four times. Tapit Trice, who does not possess much early speed, has always looked like a horse that might be more suited for this race than any other Triple Crown event. He ran okay, finishing seventh, beaten by more than nine lengths in Louisville. His late kick helped win the Blue Grass Stakes.
Best Belmont Stakes Place Bet
Obviously, the top win candidates can finish second too. But what about Preakness winner National Treasure?
National Treasure had everything his way in Baltimore. First Mission scratched the day before the race, and that left no other speed in the race. National Treasure got to the front, made a couple of candidates run wide, slowed down the tempo, and had gas in the tank down the stretch to hold off Blazing Sevens.
Could the same thing happen again? The top contenders are not exactly speed horses. However, several of the other entrants have a little early pop. While National Treasure just ran three weeks ago, many others have had more rest. That said, three weeks has proven to be enough time on more than one occasion. In addition to 12 Triple Crown winners, 18 times a horse has won the second and third legs of the Triple Crown.
If we’re looking for a bigger price, what about new blood? Arcangelo and Tapit Shoes are making their Triple Crown debuts. Arcangelo took Belmont Park’s Peter Pan Stakes four weeks ago and is riding a two-race winning streak. Six Peter Pan winners have taken the Belmont. Tapit Shoes, another son of Tapit, has only a single victory. He was a close second to Red Route One on April 22 in the Bath House Row Stakes. That was his best career effort and trainer Brad Cox won the Belmont two years ago.
Best Belmont Stakes Show Bet
Red Route One is going to be downgraded because of his poor performance in the Preakness. Everything went wrong three weeks ago when he got bumped coming out of the gate and had no pace. He has consistently faced top competition and should like the long stretch at Belmont Park. He made up 18 lengths but was still one shy of winning February’s Rebel Stakes against several Derby runners.
Belmont Stakes Best Bets for 2023
The top three contenders are all very reasonable. Forte has stood out from this crop of three-year-olds and now finally gets his opportunity. Angel of Empire ran the best of the Derby horses who are running at the Belmont. Tapit Trice has always seemed like a horse who will do his best in this race.
On the flip side, Forte hasn’t run in months, so how could he be ready for 12 furlongs? Angel of Empire ran his race in Louisville and it wasn’t good enough. Tapit Trice was disappointing last time out.
It might be stubborn to say this, but if you liked Forte five weeks ago, what has changed your mind now? He was the best of this crop last year, and twice beat Mage, the last time overcoming a terrible wide post position. Ten weeks before a mile-and-a-half race is not ideal, but Todd Pletcher – who also trains Tapit Trice – has won the Belmont four times.
Going back and watching the Derby over and over again, Angel of Empire runs big. Sure, he gets a relatively easy trip, but coming wide off the second turn he is rolling down the stretch. How can you not be impressed by that? At the same time, Tapit Trice doesn’t make up all that much ground despite getting his preferred quick tempo. He probably will run better Saturday, but what happened in Louisville?
Red Route One should be rallying late. Maybe Tapit Trice is better, but Red Route One has more excuses for his last race than Tapit Trice does. It will be fun watching them try to make up ground, and at a bigger price, we’ll try to get Red Route One home.
Here are our top win, place, and show Belmont Stakes handicapper picks.
- Win: Forte (+200)
- Place: Angel of Empire (+120)
- Show: Red Route One (+310)
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Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.
