Churchill Downs Odds & Picks – Turf Classic Stakes & More – 2023 Kentucky Derby Undercard
- Seven Graded Stakes races are being run prior to the Kentucky Derby
- Don’t limit your money making opportunites to the Run for the Roses when there are many more races on the Kentucky Derby undercard
- What favorites can we depend on, and which longshots stand a big shot at Churchill Downs Saturday?
The Kentucky Derby undercard is awesome. Race after race includes high quality deep fields that create lots of good wagering opportunities.
While a ton of time is spent on the main event, the secondary races don’t necesarily attract as much attention. That can provide value in wagering.
Fire up your favorite horse racing betting sites, and let’s make some Kentucky Derby undercard picks.
Kentucky Derby Undercard Picks
| Race | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Derby City Distaff | Goodnight Olive | -120 |
| Churchill Distaff Turf Mile | Speak of the Devil | +350 |
| Turf Sprint | Motorious | +800 |
| Pat Day Mile | General Jim | +400 |
| American Turf | Talk of the Nation | +1000 |
| Churchill Downs Stakes | Endorsed | +500 |
| Turf Classic | Bye Bye Melvin | +600 |
The stakes action on Saturday gets rolling at 12:04 pm EST with USA Network handling coverage until NBC takes the torch at 2:30pm. To get an idea of why big deep fields create wagering value, pari mutuel betting in horse racing essentially means bettors are facing off with each other, not the house. The more entrants, the more spread out the money bet. Let’s dig in to a tremendous day in the sport of kings, and make some Churchill Downs picks.
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Derby City Distaff Prediction
This seven furlong sprint for older females will have the biggest favorite of the day on the Kentucky Derby undercard. Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Sprint champ Goodnight Olive (-120) has won seven straight races and is five-for-five at the distance.
If anyone can beat Goodnight Olive, it might be Hot and Sultry (+600). She has been facing top notch competition running longer, and now returns to a sprint which she has proven productive at.
Wicked Halo (+300) beat Matareya (+350) narrowly on March 31 at Oaklawn Park. Both are four year olds making their second start of the year, which often is a part of the cycle where they improve.
Derby City Distaff Picks: Goodnight Olive (-120)
Churchill Distaff Turf Mile Prediction
A mile turf affair for fillies and mares is highlighted by Spendarella (+140). She has won all four of her races in America, and her one try at England’s Royal Ascot, perhaps the top grass track in the world, was a solid second. That said, this is her first race as a four year old, and first time facing older, more polished opponents.
Speak of the Devil (+350) was dominant in this race last year, her first try in the US after several big time efforts in France. However, she got out slow and ran poorly on the Belmont Stakes undercard, and then didn’t run for eight months. Her only race this year was an unthreatening fifth at Gulfstream Park in March. She has a ton of talent, but what has happened the last two starts? Trainer Chad Brown also conditions Haughty (+400) and Fluffy Socks (+450).
Haughty is making her four year old debut and coming off her best career race. She was terrific beating a good field in August’s Lake Placid Stakes at Saratoga. This is her first try against older foes. Fluffy Socks hasn’t won since 2021, but she is cutting back in distance, and has occasionally run big time races.
Churchill Distaff Mile Picks: Speak of the Devil (+350)
Turf Sprint Prediction
You can make an argument for most of the 14 horses trying this five-and-a-half-furlong dash. Big Invasion (+350) is the tepid favorite making his second start as a four year old, and second try after a six month break. He’s won seven of nine career races and six of seven at this distance. He has one graded stakes victory, in the G3 Quick Call at Saratoga in July.
Arrest Me Red (+400) finished third in last month’s Shakertown Stakes at Keeneland. He missed by only half a length, but was behind Bad Beat Brian (+1500) who was +4093 that afternoon. Oceanic (+1500) was fourth. Artemus Citylimits (+1200) was +418, but was worked up before the race and finished 11th. It might be worth giving him a mulligan. His prior four races are all strong. Arrest Me Red won this event as the favorite last year.
Motorious (+800) dominated a decent field at Santa Anita in a Grade 3 event in March, his best career win. He typically goes a bit further, but his six-and-a-half-furlong form is excellent. He’s among our best bets for the Kentucky Derby undercard.
Tuft Sprint Picks: Motorious (+800)
Pat Day Mile Prediction
A one turn mile dirt race for three year olds is named for the Hall of Fame jockey Pat Day, who won the 1992 Kentucky Derby aboard Lil E. Tee. On paper it is a 14 horse scramble, with lots of speed signed up.
Echo Again (+350) won an allowance race at Oaklawn Park on March 30, and has faced several horses running for roses later in the day. He has been stuck on the rail in each of his last three races.
General Jim (+400) was tremendous winning the Grade 3 Swale Stakes in February. It was by a mile his best career effort, though he was blocked when finishing fourth in an allowace event in Florida in January 1.
Gun Pilot (+500) won his debut at Churchill Downs, and since then has raced four times at Oaklawn Park. His second place effort last time out in a $200,000 stakes race was solid. Each of his races on fast dirt have been strong.
Fort Bragg (+450), Curly Jack (+1200), Frosted Departure (+2000), and Bourbon Bash (+1200) are dropping out of Derby preps. Fort Bragg has been facing top Derby candidates routinely, and has hit the board a couple times against them. Curly Jack has won two of three starts at Churchill Downs.
Pat Day Mile Picks: General Jim (+400)
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American Turf Prediction
Another race with a lot of options, this mile-and-a-sixteenth challenge for three year olds includes a pair of top options from top trainer Todd Pletcher, sort of like the Kentucky Derby.
Major Dude (+250) has three wins in eight starts, and finished second behind Two Phil’s on a synthetic surface at Turfway Park last time out. He won a Grade 3 race on turf in February that featured a high quality field.
In addition to Major Dude, Pletcher has Far Bridge (+350). He is two-for-two, and got a perfect trip in beating Carl Spackler (+300) in both horses debut. Each returned to win their second race, Far Bridge against a fair optional claiming field by more than three lengths, and Carl Spackler against maidens by nearly nine lengths.
Talk of the Nation (+1000) has come alive since being placed on turf two races ago. He crushed a mediocre field of optional claimers at Tampa Bay Downs in February, and then a month later despite going wide on both turns, rolled by solid stakes horses including Mo Stash (+1000) at Tampa to win by two-and-a-half-lengths. Mo Stash returned to win a Grade 3 event at Keeneland.
American Turf Picks: Talk of the Nation (+1000)
Churchill Downs Stakes Prediction
A seven furlong dirt test for older males includes Cody’s Wish (-120), not only the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile champ, but among the most inspiring story’s in the sport.
Cody’s Wish has won four straight and is the most likely winner, albeit at a very short price. He is four-for-four at Churchill Downs but only one for three going seven furlongs.
Endorsed (+500) may do his best running in Florida. He has three straight Gulfstream Park victories, including a pair of graded stakes. He beat decent horses in both and has significant class in his past, but has run in Louisville six times, and hasn’t won yet.
A former claimer, Tejano Twist (+600) has run one strong race after another. This is the best field he has ever faced on the Kentucky Derby undercard, he is just one-for-seven at Churchill Downs, and prefers shorter races.
Churchill Downs Stakes Picks: Endorsed (+500)
Turf Classic Prediction
This $1 million mile-and-an-eighth event for older horses includes only a one Grade 1 winner, Santin (+450). Since taking this event last year, Santin has a single victory, and four races where he has not finished among the top three. He stumbled at the start of his only race this year, the Kentucky Cup Classic on a synthetic track. He lost to Hong Kong Harry (+350) in November at Del Mar. Hong Kong Harry won back-to-back graded stakes outside San Diego last summer, but his only race this year was a fourth place effort going shorter in March at Santa Anita.
Pletcher seems to have found something on grass with Up to the Mark (+400). His five dirt races were ok, but three tries on turf have been strong. He won a pair of optional claimers at Gulfstream, and then ran right with Breeders Cup winner Modern Games at Keeneland on April 14, finishing third in a Grade 1 race.
Steady On (+500) is another Pletcher option. He won a stakes race at Gulfstream making up ground down the stretch a month ago. He was second in a Grade 2 March 4.
Veterans Spooky Channel (+500), and Bye Bye Melvin (+600) are graded stakes winners. Spooky Channel has won four of five though probably not against this caliber of competition. He won a Grade 2 at the Fair Grounds in late March. Bye Bye Melvin should have the early lead, can anyone catch him? He has just a single win since 2020, but has faced the best turf horses in the country in each of his last two races, and won at Saratoga on September 1.
Turf Classic Picks: Bye Bye Melvin (+600)
Looking for more Kentucky Derby picks and predictions? Get more Derby coverage from SBD below!
- Kentucky Derby Longshot Picks
- Kentucky Derby Expert Picks
- How to Bet the Kentucky Derby
- Kentucky Derby Jockeys and Trainers
- Recent Form of Kentucky Derby Contenders
- Pedigree of Kentucky Derby Favorites
- Win, Place, Show Picks
- Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta Exotic Bets
Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.
