Kentucky Derby Longshot Picks – Odds for Reincarnate, Mandarin Hero & More Horses Who Can Make You Big Money
- Can a longshot follow in the footprints of Rich Strike and claim an upset win at this year’s Kentucky Derby?
- Reincarnate and Skinner are Kentucky Derby longshots looking to build on strong recent performances
- Read on for all the odds and trends ahead of Saturday evening’s running of the 149th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs
With the memory of Rich Strike’s spectacular run from the outside to claim an unlikely victory in last year’s Kentucky Derby still fresh in the minds of horse racing fans, now is a good time to take a look at which the Kentucky Derby longshots have the best chance of duplicating that feat in this year’s edition of the fastest two minutes in sports.
Sports bettors getting in on horse racing action for the first time should check out our Kentucky Derby betting guide to get up to date on everything you’ll need to know about how to bet on the Kentucky Derby. before making their Kentucky Derby picks and predictions.
Kentucky Derby Longshots
A full field of 20 horses is set to compete in the 149th running of the Kentucky Derby on Saturday at Churchill Downs, with the weather forecast calling for cloudy skies at post time. While Forte, Tapit Trice, and Angel Empire have captured headlines as top Kentucky Derby contenders, this year’s field is wide open, raising hopes for horse racing betting fans once again backing ponies at the bottom of the odds board.
Three Kentucky Derby longshots particularly stand out going into the weekend including Lord Miles, Reincarnate, and Skinner. Here’s a quick look at why they could emerge as the best bets at the Kentucky Derby.
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Lord Miles Peaking at Right Time?
***Update: Lord Miles was scratched from the race on Thursday and was replaced by Mandarin Hero who is also a Derby longshot at 36-1 odds. Mandarin Hero comes from Japan and has four forst place finishes and two seconds in his career. Both of the second place finishes came in 2023, including in the Santa Anita Derby on April 8.
Lord Miles has produced mixed results since making his stakes race debut with a third-place finish at January’s 2023 Mucho Macho Man. The Saffie Joseph-trained colt took a step back at the Holy Bull, dropping to sixth place, and didn’t do much better at the Tampa Bay Derby, claiming fifth place despite once again enjoying a fast dirt track.
Lord Miles was a 59-1 longshot when he won the G2 Wood Memorial. He drew Post 19 for the Kentucky Derby. pic.twitter.com/S26CQzCCNF
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However, the three-year-old sired by 2007 Preakness Stakes winner Curlin finally found his legs in his last outing. Lord Miles earned the win in the Wood Memorial as a +3000 longshot at the horse racing betting sites while starting from the middle of the pack for the No. 8 post, and has the potential to surprise starting on the aside for the No. 19 post on Saturday. Critics will point to the less than dominant field at the Wood Memorial, and Lord Miles relatively small career earnings. However, this year’s Kentucky Derby field is not expected to produce any record-breaking performances, and there is value to be found in a horse like Lord Miles as one of the Kentucky Derby longshots at 30-1 odds that sports such strong genes.
Other Derby longshots priced at 30-1 also include Disarm, Hit Show and Rocket Can.
Reincarnate a Constant Threat
There will be little chance of overlooking Reincarnate when he takes to the track at Churchill Downs on Saturday afternoon. Previously handled by Bob Baffert and currently trained by Tim Yakteen, Reincarnate lags as a long +5000 Kentucky Derby longshot bet in the Kentucky Derby odds of becoming the first roan horse to win the the Run for the Roses since 2005.
John Velazquez talks to @CBredar about his mount in the Kentucky Derby REINCARNATE. What would it mean to him if he won this year? Find out here.
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Sired by Good Magic, who turned in a second-place run at the 2015 Kentucky Derby, Reincarnate has been a constant presence at the front of the pack in seven career races, claiming a pair of wins including a win at the 2023 Sham Stakes. He followed up with back-to-back third-place performances including last time out at the 1-1/8 mile Arkansas Derby. But in addition to enjoying a favorable draw into the No. 7 post, Reincarnate will be mounted by John Valazquez, who has three Kentucky Derby wins to his credit including a sensational run to victory aboard longshot Animal Kingdom 12 years ago.
Other horses in the 50-1 range as Kentucky Derby longshots include Continuar, Jace’s Road, Raise Cain and Sun Thunder, all priced at +5000 in the Kentucky Derby odds.
Skinner Making Steady Progress
***Update. As of Friday morning, Skinner was scratched due to a fever. As the fourth horse to be scratched, there were no more horses on the waiting list and therefore the Kentucky Derby will be run with 19 horses.
Another horse sired by Curlin is among the Kentucky Derby longshots to keep an eye on this weekend. Skinner looked nowhere near ready to compete for a spot in the Kentucky Derby while making his debut last summer, following up a middling third-place run over seven furlongs at the Del Mar Futurity with a sixth-place performance at the 2022 American Pharoah Stakes.
However, the John Shirreffs-trained colt has responded with a pair of third-place runs at the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby, both of which were won by Practical Move. So it seems fitting that Skinner will start alongside Practical Move from the No. 9 post on Saturday afternoon. Still a work in progress, it remains to be seen whether Skinner is ready to take the next step on one of the biggest tracks in horse racing, making him a risky pick in the Kentucky Derby predictions as a +2000 wager. However, if he can keep pace with a fast starter Practical Move out of the gate, he could emerge as a threat to pull off the upset.
Kentucky Derby Longshots Pick: Reincarnate +5000
Looking for more Kentucky Derby picks and predictions? Get more Derby coverage from SBD below!
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- Recent Form of Kentucky Derby Contenders
- Pedigree of Kentucky Derby Favorites
- Kentucky Derby Undercard Picks
- Win, Place, Show Picks
- Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta Exotic Bets
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Daniel has been writing about sports and sports betting for over 23 years. The seasoned pro has contributed to the likes of Sports Illustrated, Sportsnet, NESN, Bleacher Report, OddsShark, the Globe and Mail, and The Nation magazine.
