Kentucky Derby Exotic Bets – Exacta, Trifecta, and Superfecta Picks
- The recent past suggests that wagering on Kentucky Derby exotic bets for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby could break the bank
- How to strategically position yourself for a big score is part art, part science, and you need some luck
- How can we go about attacking the exacta, trifecta, and superfecta in the Run for the Roses?
Last year the winning two dollar exacta at the Kentucky Derby returned $4,101.20, a fifty cent trifecta cashed for $7,435.35, and the $1 superfecta earned backers $321,500.10. That’s what happens when +8080 Rich Strike wins the Derby and you have him in your Kentucky Derby exotic bets.
It doesn’t take a historically big upset to see the toatboard light up. Two years ago with +1210 Medina Spirit finishing first, the exacta paid over $500, tri just under $850, and super nearly $9,500. In 2020, with +840 Authentic on top, and enormous favorite Tiz the Law second, you got $41 for the exacta, over $650 for the tri, and the super paid nearly $8,000.
As we handicap this year’s Kentucky Derby for the best exacta, trifecta and superfecta picks, it is a good idea to know how to read horse racing betting programs. Also understanding various types of horse racing bets is advisable. Let’s consider some strategic ways to attack Kentucky Derby exotic bets.
With 19 horses running, the Kentucky Derby superfecta payout may be big. But you need to balance covering a lot of combinations with your budget. Understand, there are a lot of Kentucky Derby contenders, and you’re going to have to carefully decide who to focus on and who to toss as you make your bets.
DRF RACEBOOKDEPOSIT MATCH UP TO $250!
- FANDUEL RACEBOOK
$20 NO SWEAT FIRST BET (CO, IL, IN, LA, MD, MA, MI, NY, OH, PA, VA, WV, WY)
- TWINSPIRES RACEBOOK
$200 SIGNUP BONUS
- FANDUEL RACING
$20 NO SWEAT FIRST BET (AR, CA, DE, FL, KY, NH, NM, ND, OR, RI, SD, VT)
*Update as of Saturday morning race favorite Forte was scratched.
Best Kentucky Derby Exotic Bets
Looking back at last year’s Kentucky Derby, how could someone have possibly hit the trifecta? Finding Rich Strike would have been almost impossible unless your favorite number was 21. Or you once got rich bowling a strike with your buddies. On the flip side, maybe you loved Epicenter, who was the favorite, ran second, and went on to be the three year old of the year. You could have structured a ticket like this.
1) Epicenter over All others (19 horses) over All others (19 horses) — $180.50 for a fifty-cent bet
2) All over Epicenter over All — $180.50
3) All over All over Epicenter — $180.50
That is a $541.50 ticket, that when craziness transpires ends up returning more than 13x. It still isn’t particularly strong handicapping, but in that instance it worked.
If there is an Epicenter this year, it pretty clearly is Forte. The Breeders Cup Juvenile and Florida Derby champ has some knocks, but in the end he is six for seven and clearly has the best resume.
Those who dislike Forte point to the fact his speed ratings have declined in back-to-back races. While that is not a good trend, and is a valid point. This is a group of horses where no horses figs stand out.
On paper the top Derby prep race seems to be the Blue Grass Stakes. Both horses engaging in the stretch duel seem legitimate.
Tapit Trice had not run against top fields prior to the Blue Grass, but has seemingly gotten better and better. His style, similar to Forte’s, running best in the late stages, could be a problem in a race without a ton of pace. If you don’t have a great tempo to set up closers, you better navigate through a large field without many problems. Verifying should be in a better position, but his races are hit or miss. If you can excuse his ho-hum effort in the Rebel Stakes, and maybe the ride wasn’t perfect or he didn’t like the mud, he fits nicely.
Looking outside the box, Derma Sotogake is trying to defy history. Foreign invaders have had a very difficult time in the Run for the Roses, and horses coming from Dubai even more so. However, his UAE Derby was both visually impressive and very fast. Plus, Japanese-bred horses are finding more and more global success. In a year that there is little certainty, he is interesting.
Kentucky Derby Exacta Picks
We’re saving some of our budget trying to hit a big one in the trifecta or superfecta in the Kentucky Derby odds. Forte is the most likely winner, and in a year where the American horses are a bit hard to separate, Derma Sotogake is at least intriguing, and at best, who knows, he could be the best by a significant margin.
- $10 exacta box Forte and Derma Sotogake — $20
- $5 exacta Forte over Tapit Trice and Verifying — $10
- $5 exacta Derma Sotogake over Tapit Trice and Verifying — $10
- Total Wager — $40
If our top two choices finish in that order for our Kentucky Derby exotic bets, we hit. If either wins and our next most likely contenders finish second, we cash a ticket too.
Kentucky Derby Trifecta Picks
The strategy remains, use the two most likely winners up top, expand to the next most likely horses for second, and dig a pinch deeper for third. Because the minimum bet is 50 cents, we can play more combos here without breaking the budget.
- $0.50 trifecta Forte and Derma Sotogake over Forte, Derma Sotogake, Tapit Trice, and Verifying over Forte, Derma Sotogake, Tapit Trice, and Verifying — $16
- $0.50 trifecta Forte and Derma Sotogake over Forte, Derma Sotogake, Tapit Trice, and Verifying over Forte, Derma Sotogake, Tapit Trice, Verifying, Mandarin Hero, Mage, Two Phil’s, Angel of Empire, Confidence Game, and Hit Show — $40
- Total Wager — $56
As you look for prices underneath for your Kentucky Derby exotic bets, and if you think Derma Sotogake is reasonable, what about Mandarin Hero? Sure, he was running against lesser horses in Japan, but he took on pretty strong American competition at the Santa Anita Derby and was right there.
And then there is Two Phil’s. He was a monster last time out on Turfway Park’s synthetic race course and has a win at Churchill Downs. Maybe he has turned the corner. Mage is a lightly raced horse who has a chance to take a step forward. Hit Show is always close and may get tactical position if he breaks well from the inside post. He is trained by Brad Cox, who has a bunch of horses in the race including Verifying.
Below offer available in AR, CA, DE, FL, KY, NH, NM, ND, OR, RI, SD, VT
RACING
Below offer available in CO, IL, IN, LA, MD, MA, MI, NY, OH, PA, VA, WV, WY
RACEBOOK
Kentucky Derby Superfecta Picks
Normally you can play superfectas for 10 cents, and that allows bettors to cover a lot of combinations. With 19 horses in the field, and a $1 minimum, these get expensive fast. If you are tied to a budget, you better have some conviction at the top of the ticket.
You can assemble your superfecta tickets in a variety of ways. For $256 you can play only Forte and Derma Sotogake in the first two slots. And then the other eight horses used in the second trifecta ticket above for third and fourth. If our two keys run 1-2, that gives you eight different options to finish third and fourth.
- $1 superfecta Forte and Derma Sotogake over Forte and Derma Sotogake over Tapit Trice, Verifying, Mandarin Hero, Mage, Two Phil’s, Angel of Empire, Confidence Game, and Hit Show over Tapit Trice, Verifying, Mandarin Hero, Mage, Two Phil’s, Angel of Empire, Confidence Game, and Hit Show — $256
If you want to keep more horses involved in the second position, you can play our first trifecta structure, and use 10 horses in the fourth spot for $320.
- $1 superfecta Forte and Derma Sotogake over Forte, Derma Sotogake, Tapit Trice, and Verifying over Forte, Derma Sotogake, Tapit Trice, and Verifying, over Forte, Derma Sotogake, Tapit Trice, Verifying, Mandarin Hero, Mage, Two Phil’s, Angel of Empire, Confidence Game, and Hit Show — $320
Kentucky Derby Exacta, Trifecta & Superfecta Picks
There is no right and wrong way to play Kentucky Derby exotic bets. If your budget is not significant, you may want to avoid the superfecta. Yes, it will pay the most, but because of the $1 minimum it is hard to put together a reasonable play at a modest cost unless you are really sure about who you think is going to win or can narrow the field dramatically.
As for the exacta and tri, guns away. You can maneuver and play them in ways that you use your opinions strategically. And you can throw in some darts to finish second or third to try and secure a price.
There is an argument that using Kentucky Derby longshots mentioned in the trifecta and superfecta tickets would be better played in exactas and tris. A Derma Sotogake over Mandarin Hero exacta or Forte over Two Phil’s exacta will pay well. And it is far more likely that hitting a wild superfecta. If you are looking for a lottery like payout, fire at the superfecta, use your brain, and cross your fingers. It is cheaper to pour more resources into the exacta and trifecta and try to win a lot, just not enough to buy a new beamer.
Looking for more Kentucky Derby picks and predictions? Get more Derby coverage from SBD below!
- Kentucky Derby Longshot Picks
- Kentucky Derby Expert Picks
- How to Bet the Kentucky Derby
- Kentucky Derby Jockeys and Trainers
- Recent Form of Kentucky Derby Contenders
- Pedigree of Kentucky Derby Favorites
- Kentucky Derby Undercard Picks
- Win, Place, Show Picks
Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.
