Kentucky Derby Contenders Recent Form – Tapit Trice, Angel Of Empire, Kingsbarns & More
- Post time for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby is 6:57 pm EST at Churchill Downs
- There are lots of ways to handicap, but evaluating Kentucky Derby front runners’ past performances is essential
- Which Kentucky Derby contenders are currently in the best form? Read on to find out
There are 19 horses competing in this week’s Kentucky Derby and several in contention to win the Run for the Roses. We’re analyzing the recent form for some of those Kentucky Derby contenders here.
Aaron Rodgers will be in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. That doesn’t mean you prefer him over Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, or Josh Allen right now. Rodgers won the Super Bowl over a decade ago. Two of his MVPs came when Burrow was in high school. It’s great when race horses have run big. If the goal is to win today, it’s better if those top efforts have come recently.
On the opposite end of the ledger are rookies. Bryce Young might be great, but his peak is likely several years away. What horses are going their best now and should be expected to run their top race in the Kentucky Derby?
Forte is the favorite in the Kentucky Derby odds, but who is likely to run the fastest when they break for the 149th edition of America’s biggest race?
Kentucky Derby Contenders Past Performances
Essentially handicapping means to take every factor, carefully examine them, and come up with an opinion on who is going to win. Sometimes we go overboard. When you’re considering how to bet on horse racing, you often think to look for the fastest horse. While that sounds difficult, just examining who has run the best while facing the top competition should take you a long way. Let’s look at some of the Kentucky Derby contenders’ past performances here to give you some insights when making your Kentucky Derby predictions.
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Forte
*Note as of Saturday morning, Kentuxky Derby favorite Forte was scratched.
This Kentucky Derby contender debuted late last May and won a maiden race at Belmont Park. His only loss came sprinting at Saratoga in July. Since then, the distances have increased and the wins have gotten more and more impressive.
A winner of five straight, Forte capped 2022 by rather easily taking the Breeders Cup Juvenile. His three year old debut came four months later. He dominated Mage, Cyclone Mischief, Rocket Can and others in March’s Fountain of Youth Stakes. That assured him of a spot in the Derby starting gate. His final prep for the Run for the Roses produced a major obstacle. A notoriously bad outside post going a mile-and-an-eighth at Gulfstream Park in the Florida Derby.
Despite going very wide on both turns, Forte outguns Mage to the wire. With an eighth of a mile to go the task looks large, but he bares down and gets there. Will he give himself that much work to do in Louisville?
Tapit Trice
With four straight wins, Tapit Trice has taken big steps forward each time he has run. He lost his debut going a one turn mile at Aqueduct in November, learned from the race, and a month later graduated in a similar affair. In February he beat optional claimers at Gulfstream Park. Even after dominating the Tampa Bay Derby in March, it was unclear whether he had beaten any top opponents. That hurdle was cleared in last month’s Blue Grass Stakes.
Tapit Trice ran his best career race while gutting out a stretch duel with Verifying and easily handling several other Kentucky Derby contenders.
Verifying
Losing in deep stretch to one of the Derby favorites at the Blue Grass means you probably aren’t far from the top of the Kentucky Derby contenders. Verifying won his debut in August, and then finished second in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes. He ran sixth behind Forte in the Breeders Cup Juvenile before getting two months off. His 2023 debut was a big step forward, beating allowance optional claimers in dominating fashion at Oaklawn Park in January. He was the favorite in Oaklawn’s Rebel Stakes but the track was sloppy, he had traffic issues, and finished fourth. If you were leary at that point, it’s hard not to like the response in the Blue Grass.
Kingsbarns
He’s run only three times, and all have been victories. Kingsbarns did not run at the age of two, wasn’t the favorite in his debut, and didn’t break any land-speed records, but got the job done at Gulfstream Park in January. A month later he ran considerably quicker drubbing a so so field of allowance optional claimers at Tampa Bay Downs. He was +450 in March’s Louisiana Derby. The three-and-a-half length score over Disarm, Jace’s Road, and others was visually impressive. The Louisiana Derby is the longest Run for the Roses prep at a-mile-and-three-eighths. Though LA Derby winners have only won the roses twice when looking at Kentucky Derby picks and analysis, Epicenter came awfully close last year.
Angel Of Empire
When this Pennyslvania bred finished second at +1810 on January 1 in Oaklawn Park’s Smarty Jones Stakes it would have been hard to imagine him being among the top Kentucky Derby contenders. At that point, he had run four times, had two wins, and both were at Horseshoe Indianapolis, not a track known for producing champions.
In February he won Fair Ground’s Risen Star Stakes at +1370, beating Sun Thunder and Two Phil’s among others. He backed up the victory by running his best career race in the Arkansas Derby. At +470 he dominated King Russell, Rocket Can, Reincarnate and five other rivals. He was wide on the second turn, and it did not matter.
Derma Sotogake
He’s the wildcard among the Kentucky Derby contenders. The unknown. Bred in Japan, prepped in the Middle East, Derma Sotogake has taken a route that has never worked to win the Kentucky Derby. However, racing in Japan has gotten better and better, and he left Dubai with seemingly enough time to acclimate to America.
After losing his first three races in Japan last year, he broke his maiden in October. He won a stakes in his homeland in November, and another in December. In late February he finished third in the lucrative Saudi Derby. Then he won the UAE Derby in a fast time and looked impressive doing so.
No horse in this year’s field has more varying opinions about them than Derma Sotogake.
Now that we’ve analyzed some of the top Kentucky Derby betting trends, get ready to make your Kentucky Derby best bets at one of the top horse racing betting sites. The big day is almost here.
Looking for more Kentucky Derby picks and predictions? Get more Derby coverage from SBD below!
- Kentucky Derby Longshot Picks
- Kentucky Derby Expert Picks
- How to Bet the Kentucky Derby
- Kentucky Derby Jockeys and Trainers
- Pedigree of Kentucky Derby Favorites
- Kentucky Derby Undercard Picks
- Win, Place, Show Picks
- Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta Exotic Bets
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Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.
