Keeneland Picks & Odds – Turf Mile, Breeders’ Futurity & Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes

• Saturday at Keeneland features five graded stakes races including the $1 million Turf Mile
• Three of the five races are Breeders Cup win and you’re in events
• One month before the Breeders Cup where is betting value present in Lexington, KY?

Two seasons monopolize the horse racing calendar in North America. The prep races and running of the Triple Crown dominate the winter and spring. While handicappers love summer racing at Saratoga and Del Mar, they act as a lead-up to November’s Breeders Cup.

With one month before the Breeders Cup is set to be run at Keeneland, this is the final major weekend of BC prep races and could affect the Breeders’ Cup Classic odds. Keeneland is open and has five big-time races on Saturday to analyze for your Keenland horse racing picks.

Let’s look through the fields and consider where we ought to rely on favorites, and what races are more wide open to finding a big price.

Keeneland Picks

See our top Keeneland picks above from the biggest races in the Blue Grass state this weekend.

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Weather in Kentucky on Saturday is expected to be cool, in the high 50s with little chance of rain. The five stakes races will be run between 3:30-6:30 pm ET. FanDuel TV will have coverage of the full card. CNBC will be on the air from 5-6 pm.

Saturday’s stakes action begins with the Grade 2 Woodford. It is a five-and-a-half furlong sprint on the turf with a purse of $350,000. The Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes is a six-furlong Grade 2 event for girls with a berth in the Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Sprint on the line. It too has a $350,00 purse. The First Lady Stakes is a $750,000 Grade 1 for girls going a mile on the turf. The Breeders Futurity is a Grade 1 event at a mile and a sixteenth. The two-year-old boys are racing for a purse of $600,000, and a spot in the BC Juvenile. The $1 million Turf Mile is a prelim for the Breeders Cup Mile.

Let’s look at the five stakes and make some Keenland picks.

Woodford Stakes Prediction

It’s true Golden Pal (-125) did not run his best at Saratoga in August. He still won and has now captured seven straight races in the US.

Golden Pal is three-for-three at Keeneland including a victory in this race last year. Three of his four career losses came across the pond against the best of the best grass competition. He has five graded stakes wins. The rest of the field combined has one.

Artemus Citylimits (+450) is in great form though has never faced Golden Pal or anybody that fast. That said, he could push the favorite and that may create an awfully fast pace.

Cadamosto (+1000) ran a good race in his US debut finishing second at Saratoga in August to Big Invasion. He could sit off the pace and if the leaders fall apart, pick up the pieces.

Pick: Golden Pal (-125)

Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes Prediction

This feels wide open, and there is a lot of speed signed up. Joyful Cadence (+1000), Palm Cottage (+400), Slammed (+300), and Happy Soul (+600) should all be on or near the lead.

Neither of the two graded stakes winners in the field are in great form right now, though both would benefit from a pace meltdown. Caribbean Caper (+500) started her career five-for-five but was off for 11 months before finishing fourth at Colonial Downs in August.

Sconsin (+800) has run three straight ok but not great races after back-to-back victories to close last year ane begin this one. The pace and quality of this field may work to her advantage.

Pick: Sconsin (+800)

First Lady Stakes Prediction

Three of the six entrants are viable options for Keeneland picks. Regal Glory (+120) has made over $2.2 million and finished second in this event last year. In July she beat In Italian (+300) relatively easily in New York.

In Italian bounced back from that effort to impressively beat Technical Analysis (+250) at Saratoga.

Technical Analysis shrugged off that loss by winning the Grade 2 Balston Spa at Saratoga six weeks later.

It seems reasonable that Technical Analysis and In Italian will be forwardly placed. Regal Glory should come rolling down the stretch. Of the three, Regal Glory is the only one who has won at Keeneland.

Pick: Regal Glory (+120)

Breeders Futurity Prediction

Could one or more of these horses be in the Kentucky Derby seven months from now?

Forte (+300) won his debut as an enormous favorite, finished fourth in the Grade 3 Sanford Stakes at Saratoga, and rebounded to take the G1 Hopeful at the Spa.

Forte is the only graded stakes winner in the field of 14.

Loggins (+400) was a huge favorite and ran great winning by eight lengths in his debut for Brad Cox. He ran the second-highest speed figure among these horses, to Forte, and now will try winners for the first time.

Cox also sends out Instant Coffee (+500), who ran a terrific race first time out at +1490.

Lost Ark (+600) is the half-brother of $1.7 million earner Nest. She might be the fastest female horse in the world right now. Lost Ark is two-for-two and both races were easy victories.

Bob Baffert’s $850,000 Newgate (+2000) won his debut and finished fourth against Cave Rock, arguably the early Kentucky Derby favorite.

Pick: Lost Ark (+600)

Turf Mile Stakes Prediction

Six Grade 1 winners are in this high-end field of a dozen. Order of Australia (+800) won the Breeders Cup Mile at Keeneland two years ago.

Order of Australia has run just one race in America since then, and he was last of 12 in this event in 2021. His European form is consistently solid but not spectacular.

Ivar (+600) has run only twice this year after finishing third in the Breeders Cup Mile. He beat lesser horses in July and finished second to Modern Games in Toronto three weeks ago. Modern Games would be a significant favorite in this spot, and Ivar had a bumpy trip at Woodbine.

Smooth Like Strait (+450) is super consistent. He always runs against top horses and usually is close. He has finished second in six of his last seven races, mixing in a third at Keelenad in April.

Santin (+350) is second off a layoff after winning the Grade 1 Arlington Million in August. He is one-for-one at Keeneland.

Since returning from the Middle East, Casa Creed (+500) has won a Grade 1 sprint at Belmont Park, and Grade 1 route at Saratoga. He finished 12th in the BC Mile when Order of Australia triumphed.

Pick: Ivar (+600)