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Kentucky Derby Longshot Picks – Odds for Sainthood, Hidden Stash & More Horses Who Can Make You Big Money

Daniel Coyle

by Daniel Coyle in Horse Racing News

Updated Apr 30, 2021 · 8:28 AM PDT

Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby entrant Hidden Stash works out Churchill Downs Wednesday, April 28, 2021, in Louisville, Ky. The 147th running of the Kentucky Derby is scheduled for Saturday, May 1. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
  • Six horses sit at the bottom of the Kentucky Derby odds as +5000 longshots
  • Sainthood offers intriguing value to finish in the money in just his second stakes race, while Hidden Stash is well-positioned to keep pace with the favorites
  • We’ve got you covered with all the odds and trends ahead of the 147th running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky

As the clock ticks down to the running of the 147th Kentucky Derby on Saturday evening at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, the spotlight has remained squarely on this year’s favorite, Essential Quality. However, horses sporting odds of +5000 or longer have reached the winner’s circle on three occasions since 2005, with Country Horse achieving the feat just two years while pegged as a +6500 bet.

With six horses listed at +5000 ahead of this year’s Run for the Roses, there is plenty of value betting options available to sports bettors. Here’s a look at how the bottom of the Kentucky Derby odds shape up, and the longshots that have the best chance to surprise in Saturday’s race.

2021 Kentucky Derby Longshots

Horse Post Position Odds at TVG
Essential Quality 14 +200
Rock Your World 15 +500
Known Agenda 1 +600
Hot Rod Charlie 9 +800
Highly Motivated 17 +1000
Medina Spirit 8 +1500
Mandaloun 7 +1500
Midnight Bourbon 10 +2000
Dynamic One 11 +2000
King Fury 16 +2000
O Besos 6 +2000
Super Stock 18 +2000
Bourbonic 20 +3000
Soup and Sandwich 19 +3000
Like the King 2 +5000
Brooklyn Strong 3 +5000
Keepmeinmind 4 +5000
Sainthood 5 +5000
Helium 12 +5000
Hidden Stash 13 +5000

Odds as of April 30

Longshots Starting Inside

Among the six horses listed as +5000 longshots in online Kentucky Derby betting, four have drawn into post positions close to the rail. Like the King will start from the No. 2 post, alongside Brooklyn Strong at No. 3, Keepmeinmind at No. 4, and Sainthood at No. 5.

With race favorite Essential Quality starting on the outside at No. 14, the pressure will be on the four longshots starting close to the rail to seize an early lead if they are to enjoy any chance of pulling off the upset. That scenario does not bode well for Brooklyn Strong. The three-year-old gelding has claimed victory in two of his past three outings, but has been far from explosive out of the gate in his past two races.

A slow start proved particularly costly in his last outing two weeks ago at the Wood Memorial, where he struggled to keep pace on his way to a fifth-place finish. The Daniel Velazquez-trained horse also needed a huge closing run to earn the win at the Remsen Stakes last December.

Sainthood Benefiting from Experienced Mount

Conversely, Sainthood has emerged as an intriguing options for sports bettors searching for value further down the odds. The Todd Pletcher-trained colt impressed in his lone stakes race to date. Sainthood enjoyed a fast start at the Jeff Ruby Steaks back in March, and also demonstrated his ability to close strong with a steady run to a second-place finish on the dirt track at Turfway Park.

With such limited experience on the track, Sainthood is a risky pick to reach the winner’s circle as a +5000 bet. However, Pletcher enjoys a solid track record at the Kentucky Derby, where he has produced two previous winners including Super Saver, who ran to victory as a +1500 bet in 2010. In addition, jockey Corey Lanerie is no stranger to Churchill Downs, where he has enjoyed consistent success including a second-place finish atop Looking at Lee in the 2017 Kentucky Derby.

Hidden Stash Best Bet to Upset

Value betting options also exist on the outside, most notably with Hidden Stash, who will start at No. 13. The three-year-old colt, trained by Victoria Oliver, has yet to claim victory in a stakes race, but is well positioned to steal the headlines on Saturday. Hidden Stash demonstrated his explosive closing ability in a thrilling run to second place at the Tampa Bay Derby.

And while he struggled while starting on the rail last time out at the Blue Grass Stakes, he recovered nicely to finish a respectable fourth place. Skeptics may point out that it was another longshot, Helium, who held off Hidden Stash in Tampa Bay. But with a favorable post position on the outside, good weather in the forecast, and another chance to demonstrate his endurance, Hidden Stash stands out as the longshot of choice to win it all in this year’s Kentucky Derby.

The Picks: Hidden Stash to win (+5000); Sainthood to show

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