Ohio Derby Odds, Picks, Predictions: Two Phil’s Favored

• Saturday’s $500,000 Ohio Derby is headlined by Kentucky Derby runner up Two Phil’s
• The biggest race of the year in the Buckeye State is slated for 6:20 pm ET at Thistledown
• Will Two Phil’s prevail, or might Bishops Bay, Lord Miles, Henry Q, Hayes Strike or someone else pull the upset in the Ohio Derby odds?

The Ohio Derby was first run in 1876. It has changed venues and distances numerous times, but in recent memory has been run at a-mile-and-an-eighth at Thistledown near Cleveland. No trainer has won the race more than twice, but that may change on Saturday when looking at the Ohio Derby odds and contenders.

While Kentucky Derby runner up Two Phil’s is the favorite, second choice Bishops Bay is conditioned by Brad Cox. Twice in the last four years Cox has won the Ohio Derby. Let’s look carefully at this year’s full field, and consider if there is any value to be had in the wagering pools for our Ohio Derby picks.

2023 Ohio Derby Odds

Two Phil’s leads the way as a +160 favorite in the Ohio Derby odds, followed by Bishops Bay (+300) and Lord Miles (+350). The biggest Ohio Derby longshots are Last Cookie and Timesatappin at +3000.

While rain is likely leading up to the race, it should be dry with temperatures in the high 60s at post time. FanDuel TV will air the race.

The favorite has won the Ohio Derby in back-to-back years, though Dean Martini paid $31.20 on a two dollar win bet in 2020. He is the only winner to cash for more than $10 in the last seven runnings.

Let’s discuss the Ohio Derby favorite, and several interesting alternatives.

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Two Phil’s Answered Questions in Louisville

The debate surrounding Two Phil’s leading into the Kentucky Derby was whether to trust his impressive victory in March’s Jeff Ruby Steaks. He ran fast, and won easily, but the race took place on a synthetic surface. On the first Saturday in May, he more than answered that question.

Two Phil’s was one of only three horses who really impressed at Churchill Downs in the Derby. While he couldn’t hold off Mage, he held second ahead of Angel of Empire. Two Phil’s raced on a sharp pace and was the only horse who didn’t badly give way.

His last two races are outstanding. Before that, he consistently was in the money, often against good competition. However, he hadn’t beaten many of those top horses, and two of his three victories came at smaller tracks.

Can We Learn from the Preakness and Belmont?

It is really easy to get caught up in the Kentucky Derby. It is often a mistake to assume when horses return from the Run from the Roses, and face opponents who did not run in Louisville, that having run in the biggest race of the year will give them an edge.

Mage faced only new shooters at the Preakness Stakes, and he was defeated. Tapit Trice and Angel of Empire were bet heavily at the Belmont Stakes, and both lost.

Bishops Bay has only run three times. His lone loss came as the favorite in last month’s Peter Pan Stakes.

The loss to Arcangelo looks considerably better after that rival came back to win the Belmont. If you look back at Bishops Bay’s first race, he beat First Mission, who was going to be among the favorites at the Preakness Stakes before scratching. Bishops Bay is a $450,000 son of Uncle Mo trained by Cox, one of the best in the business.

Henry Q ran in that Peter Pan too. He finished a well beaten third. He has two wins in six starts, but only his romp in February’s Mine That Bird Derby would be good enough to compete in this race.

Lord Miles scratched in the Kentucky Derby after his trainer, Saffie Joseph, was banned from Churchill Downs. He has two wins in five races. His first four heats are not good enough to win this race, but his victory over Hit Show last time out, in April’s Wood Memorial represented a major step forward. A late runner, he’d appreciate a hot tempo to run into.

Hayes Strike has already run 11 times, with three victories. He has sandwiched wins at Laurel Park and Lone Star Park in stakes races around a seventh place effort against Derby horses in the Blue Grass Stakes.

Ohio Derby Prediction

If you can bet Two Phil’s at a fixed price of +160, that is pretty good value. The pari-mutuel betting and payouts number is likely to be lower when the horses break.

As good as Two Phil’s has been in his last two races, Bishops Bay is a more regally bred horse that looks even better when you consider who he has raced against. Since he has run just three times, there is a lot of upside for improvement too. He has been the favorite in every race he has run, and +300 is very tempting in the Ohio Derby odds.

Ohio Derby Picks: Bishops Bay (+300)