Pennsylvania Derby Odds & Picks
- The Pennsylvania Derby is scheduled for 5:48 pm EST Saturday
- Improbable is the betting favorite in a field of six with a $1 million purse
- Where can we find value?
Recent winners of the Pennsylvania Derby provide a who’s who list of champions. McKinzie, West Coast, Connect, Frosted, and Bayern are the last five victors.
This year’s event turned up only a field of six after Maximum Security scratched but it is a competitive group led by Improbable, who went off as the favorite at the Kentucky Derby and was placed fourth after Maximum Security got DQ’ed.
Let’s look at the field and see where the most value is present.
Odds to Win 2019 Pennsylvania Derby
| Horse | Odds |
|---|---|
| Improbable | +175 |
| Mr Money | +225 |
| War of Will | +225 |
| Spun to Run | +900 |
| Math Wizard | +1400 |
| Shanghai Superfly | +3300 |
*Odds taken 09/19/19
Though the field is small, it is competitive. The favorites have flaws, but is one of the longshots viable?
The Favorite: Improbable
Since starting his career three for three he has cost bettors a lot more money than he has made them. His runner-up finishes at the Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby let to being a tepid post time favorite in the Run for the Roses.
His Derby run was ok, but he didn’t seriously contend. What was more disheartening was a sixth-place finish in the Preakness Stakes. After taking off more than three months he returned to win a lower level stakes race at Del Mar in August.
Top Contender: War of Will
It has been a strange year for the Mark Casse trained War of Will. He won three straight races leading into the Louisiana Derby, a key prep race for the Kentucky Derby.
After running ninth in that event, he moved on to Churchill Downs with little fanfare. However, he was contending as they hit the stretch but was interfered with by Maximum Security. War of Will finished seventh, but Maximum Security was disqualified.
He returned to impressively win the Preakness Stakes, but since then things have gone off the rails. War of Will was ninth at the Belmont Stakes, which isn’t so awful considering it was his third race in five weeks, but after a long rest ran a mediocre seventh at Saratoga’s Jim Dandy Stakes in July.
Longshot: Spun to Run
Perhaps he is the horse for this course. The son of Kentucky Derby runner-up Hard Spun, Spun to Run is three for three at PARX, where Saturday’s event is taking place, including beating Gray Magician in the Smarty Jones Stakes on Labor Day.
He has never beaten a field as remotely classy as this, but his third-place finish against Maximum Security in July’s Haskell Invitational is impressive.
The Bet: Spun to Run
Improbable and War of Will are very logical, but they aren’t overly convincing or consistent. Mr Money, another contender, has looked good recently but the Indiana and West Virginia Derby’s are not marquee events. The price on Spun to Run is reasonable, and we already know he likes the venue. He’s worth a shot.
Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.
