Racing Form for 2019 Kentucky Derby Top Contenders
- Post time for Saturday’s 145th Kentucky Derby is 6:50 PM ET
- Past performances are the best way to compare horses
- By reviewing recent races for each horse you can find value as odds change
One of the great misconceptions about betting on horses is that all you need to do is pick the winner of each race. If in fact you were able to do that, you would be rich, but since picking the winner is not that simple, betting comes down to what are fair odds on any given horse.
A horse that is 1/1 has an implied probability of 50%. If you believe he has a 40% chance to win, better than anyone else in the race, he is still a bad wager. If you believe there is a 60% shot he prospers, that is a great play.
By looking at each horses past performances you can calculate for yourself how great a chance you think he has to win. If you determine a horse has a 10% chance, and his odds are 10/1 or higher, that is a good opportunity to wager on him.
Let’s look at some of the top contenders and assess what they have done recently.
Past Performances for Kentucky Derby Contenders
Game Winner
| Date | Track | Event | Finish | Distance | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 6 | Santa Anita | Santa Anita Derby | Second by half a length | 1 1/8 miles | 1:51.2 |
| March 16 | Oaklawn Park | Rebel Stakes – Division 2 | Second by a nose | 1 1/16 miles | 1:42.4 |
| November 2 | Churchill Downs | Breeders Cup Juvenile | First by two and a quarter lengths | 1 1/16 miles | 143.6 |
The champion two year old from last year, Game Winner has been very close twice in 2019, losing to Omaha Beach and Roadster. Omaha Beach would have been the favorite if he wasn’t scratched earlier in the week, and Roadster is among the top contenders. His form is rock solid particularly since the Santa Anita Derby has fared well as a Derby prep in recent years. A price around 5/1 makes sense.
Improbable
| Date | Track | Event | Finish | Distance | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 13 | Oaklawn Park | Arkansas Derby | Second by one length | 1 1/8 miles | 1:49.8 |
| March 16 | Oaklawn Park | Rebel Stakes – Division 1 | Second by a neck | 1 1/16 miles | 1:42.4 |
| December 8 | Los Alamitos | Los Alamitos Futurity | First by five lengths | 1 1/16 miles | 141.0 |
After starting his career three for three, Improbable has been close twice this year. At around 2/1 falling to Omaha Beach last time out isn’t a concern, but at 2/5 getting necked by Long Range Toddy in the Rebel was an upset. They are taking blinkers off for this race, so he might settle back in the pack before launching a bid around the second turn. At 5/1 or so he is very viable.
Roadster
| Date | Track | Event | Finish | Distance | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 6 | Santa Anita | Santa Anita Derby | First by half a length | 1 1/8 miles | 1:51.2 |
| March 1 | Santa Anita | $80,000 Optional Claimer | First by two and a half lengths | 1 mile | 1:37.4 |
| September 3 | Del Mar | Del Mar Futurity | Third by two lengths | 7 Furlongs | 1:23.0 |
He really didn’t look like a Derby horse until beating Game Winner at the Santa Anita Derby. Yes, Roadster has won two straight, but the optional claiming field he beat was not great competition. Speedway Stables bought the horse for more than half a million dollars, so he was expected to be a good one, and it certainly seems he has turned the corner. At 5/1, he might be the sharpest horse in the race.
Maximum Security
| Date | Track | Event | Finish | Distance | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 30 | Gulfstream Park | Florida Derby | First by three and a half lengths | 1 1/8 miles | 1:48.8 |
| February 20 | Gulfstream Park | $50,000 Optional Claimer | First by 18 and a quarter lengths/th> | 7 Furlongs | 1:21.6 |
| January 24 | Gulfstream Park | $50,000 Optional Claimer | First by six and a half lengths | 6 Furlongs | 109.8 |
Sometimes horse racing is more luck than skill. This inexpensive horse was available to be purchased for $16,000 in his first race, nobody bit on the price, and now he is four for four and somewhere around 10/1 in the biggest race of the year. The Florida Derby is a legit win, the other three races are not. This is another steep test, but he has done nothing wrong thus far.
Tacitus
| Date | Track | Event | Finish | Distance | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 6 | Aqueduct | Wood Memorial | First by one and one quarter lengths | 1 1/8 miles | 1:51.2 |
| March 9 | Tampa Bay Downs | Tampa Bay Derby | First by one and one quarter lengths | 1 1/16 miles | 1:41.8 |
| November 10 | Aqueduct | Maiden Special Weight | First by a neck | 1 milee | 1:38.6 |
The Tampa Bay Derby and Wood Memorial have not produced a ton of Kentucky Derby winners recently, but it is hard to knock winning. Tacitus is three for four in his life and will be around 10/1 when the horses leave the starting gate. It will take his best effort, but he is very much in play.
Code of Honor
| Date | Track | Event | Finish | Distance | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 30 | Gulfstream Park | Florida Derby | Third by six and three quarter lengths | 1 1/8 miles | 1:48.8 |
| March 2 | Gulfstream Park | Fountain of Youth Stakes | First by three quarters of a length | 1 1/16 mile | 1:43.8 |
| January 5 | Gulfstream Park | Mucho Macho Man Stakes | Fourth by seven and three quarter lengths | 1 Mile | 1:37.4 |
How willing are you to forgive a horse who has had bad racing luck? Code of Honor will be around 15/1 and he has been bumped hard and compromised in two of his last three races. The other race set up ideally for him and he won. He ran a solid second in the Champagne Stakes last October. If he has a clean run he can be a factor.
War of Will
| Date | Track | Event | Finish | Distance | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 23 | Fair Grounds | Louisiana Derby | Ninth by 12 lengths | 1 1/8 miles | 1:49.4 |
| February 16 | Fair Grounds | Risen Star Stakes | First by two and one quarter lengths | 1 1/16 mile | 1:43.8 |
| January 19 | Fair Grounds | Lecomte Stakes | First by five lengths | 1 Mile and 70 yards | 1:43.4 |
The price on War of Will should be pretty generous, 15-1 or better, and you get a horse who has been the favorite in six of his eight races. He has three wins, and the Risen Star at the time appeared to be a good one. He went off at 4/5 in the Louisiana Derby and was never a factor. If you can excuse the last race, he won his previous three. Starting from the rail, he will be sent to the lead early and hope it lasts the mile and a quarter.
By My Standards
| Date | Track | Event | Finish | Distance | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 23 | Fair Grounds | Louisiana Derby | First by three quarters of a length | 1 1/8 miles | 1:49.4 |
| February 16 | Fair Grounds | Maiden Special Weight | First by four and one quarter length | 1 1/16 mile | 1:45.0 |
| January 19 | Fair Grounds | Maiden Special Weight | Third by four lengths | 1 Mile and 70 yards | 1:44.8 |
He won the Louisiana Derby at 22/1 and now will be a similar price in Louisville. The Louisiana Derby is his only victory against other horses who have ever won a race, but By My Standards is the hype horse, the wise guy horse at Churchill Downs. He is working great and around the track people are bullish on him.
Vekoma
| Date | Track | Event | Finish | Distance | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 6 | Keeneland | Blue Grass Stakes | First by three and a half lengths | 1 1/8 miles | 1:50.8 |
| March 2 | Gulfstream Park | Fountain of Youth Stakes | Third by two and three quarter lengths/th> | 1 1/16 miles | 1:43.8 |
| November 4 | Aqueduct | Nashua Stakes | First by one and three quarter lengths | 1 mile | 1:36.6 |
You’re going to get 15/1 or more on a horse that has never gone off at more than 7/2 and has won three of four career races. It is unclear whether he has beaten any quality competition, and his best opportunity to prove himself ended up in a mediocre third place finish at the Fountain of Youth.
Our Other 2019 Kentucky Derby Coverage:
- Race History for Top Jockeys at 2019 Kentucky Derby – Mike Smith, Joel Rosario, & More
- Kentucky Derby Longshot Picks: Code of Honor, By My Standards & War of Will
- 2019 Kentucky Derby Betting: Where to Bet Online & What Bets Each Are Offering
- 2019 Kentucky Derby Favorites: Find the Best Odds for Game Winner, Roadster, Improbable
- 2019 Kentucky Derby Props: Margin of Victory, Wire-to-Wire Winner, Color of Horse & More
- Pedigree for 2019 Kentucky Derby Favorites: Game Winner, Roadster, Improbable, Tacitus & Maximum Security
- Trends to Know Before Betting the 2019 Kentucky Derby
- Formula That Has Predicted Each of Last 5 Kentucky Derby Winners Says Improbable Will Win in 2019
Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.
