2019 Kentucky Derby Props: Margin of Victory, Wire-to-Wire Winner, Color of Horse & More

• Post time for the Kentucky Derby is 6:50 p.m. EST on May 4th
• Props allow you to bet on virtually everything surrounding the race
• From the track to the stands to the TV broadcast and much more, with lots of options comes the opportunity to profit

NBC has branded the Kentucky Derby “the most exciting all day party in sports.” Appropriately it is presented by Woodford Reserve. Ironically, the race takes only two minutes. However, there is plenty of pomp and circumstance, and so many things to bet on.

Like the Super Bowl, you can bet on how long it takes to complete the national anthem, and on all sorts of things marginally related to the race. Thankfully, some of the options provide an edge to bettors, and we’re here to identify some of that vast opportunity. You can also check out our 2019 Kentucky Derby Odds Tracker in case you would like to bet on the horses themselves.

Oddsmakers are all-in when it comes to Derby prop options. We’ve divided them up into sections below and provide some brief analysis.

Kentucky Derby Race Props

Margin of Victory Odds

*All odds taken 05/03/19

They’ve been running the Kentucky Derby since 1875. On 42 occasions the final margin has been less than one length (nose nine times, head seven, neck nine, half a length 11, three quarters of a length six). Twenty three different times the winner has prospered by four lengths or more with an eight length margin (four different times) the largest.

In 1996, 1997, 1998, and 1999 horses won by less than a length. Since then the smallest margin is a full length, and 10 times the winner has cruised by two lengths or more. However, this year’s group of horses are fairly difficult to distinguish from one another. It is tempting to get 8/1 on head and neck, but we’ll go with 1/2 Length to 3/4 Length at just under 4/1.

Pick: 1/2 Length to 3/4 Length (+375)

First Quarter Mile Odds

A 22.8 quarter mile is exceptionally fast. However, when you put 20 horses who are fired up to run in front of more than 150,000 screaming people, the odds that one is going to sprint is pretty strong. This may come down to weather. If the track is not fast, under sunny and dry conditions, it is harder to run quickly in mud.

Last year in sloppy conditions that quarter went in 23.53. Two years ago on a wet fast track it was 23.83. The last dry fast track for the Kentucky Derby took place in 2016 and moved along in a brisk 23.14. Over is the play.

Pick: Over 22.8 Seconds (-120)

First Half Mile Odds

The last three years the half has been run in 45.77, 46.53, and 45.72. If the track is dry we really like the under.

Pick: Under 46.8 Seconds (-120)

Wire-to-Wire Odds

Who do you think is going to jump out to the lead? We agree that Maximum Security is a great candidate, and indeed he has a legitimate shot to go wire-to-wire. The problem is there are plenty of horses able to press whoever gets the first jump, and they’ll be hearing footsteps the entire way. A 9/2 price is not tempting enough. No is the suggestion.

Pick: No (+800)

Horse Props

Odds on the Color of the Winning Horse

Roadster (gray), Improbable (chestnut), and Game Winner (bay) are all among the favorites.

Pick: Dark Bay/Brown (+645)

Odds on Which Gate the Winner Will Break From

Justify became the seventh winner to wear #7 last year. The post position to win most frequently is #5 with 10 victories. Five and 10 are the only two slots hitting at better than 10%. Recently being further outside has been good. Five of the last eight winners have broken from the 13 stall or bigger. There seems to be some value on 11-15 (three wins in the last six years).

Pick: #11-15 (+350)

Odds on the First Letter of the Winning Horse’s Name

The favorites include horses in each subset, Game Winner and Improbable vs Roadster. Arguably the next three best horses are Maximum Security, Tacitus, and Vekoma. We’ll take the back half of the alphabet.

Pick: J-Z (-130)

Jockey and Trainer Props

Odds on Whom the Winning Jockey Will Thank First

Do you really think it is advisable to bet against God?

Pick: God (+300)

Odds On Whether the Winning Trainer Will Cry in the Post-Race Interview

Bob Baffert trains three of the four favorites. He has won the race five times already and twice hoisted the Triple Crown. Not sure number six would bring him to tears. A first time winner, different story. Leaning no.

Pick: No (-700)

Anthem and Broadcast Props

Odds on the Length of the National Anthem

Celebs have only had the chance to sing at the Kentucky Derby since 2009 and it seems they choose those who go for a subdued variety. Under.

Pick: Under 1 Minute and 45 Seconds (-120)

Odds on the Length of “My Old Kentucky Home”

It is basically the same every year, performed by the University of Louisville band. The number is about right, but we’d slightly lean towards under based on watching several on YouTube.

Pick: Under 1 Minute and 40 Seconds (-160)

Odds Secretariat Will Be Mentioned On Air

The NBC broadcasters are not incompetent. Secretariat owns the Kentucky Derby record for fastest time, and is regarded as the greatest race horse of all time. They are on the air for hours. He’ll come up.

Pick: Yes (-500)