Kentucky Derby Longshot Picks: Code of Honor, By My Standards & War of Will
- The Kentucky Derby will be contested on May 4th
- Big prices are always on the table on Derby Day
- There are longshots worthy of serious consideration
Very recent Kentucky Derby history has been rather boring, at least from a winning price standpoint. Each of the last five winners has gone off at 5/1 or less. That has not always been the case. The previous five winners were all 5/1 or more, and that included Mine that Bird (50/1), Animal Kingdom (20/1), and I’ll Have Another (15/1).
The favorites have done well of late, but this year’s field is either unremarkable or just difficult to decipher. Not a lot separates the perceived top horses and several of the longer shots in Kentucky Derby odds. That creates great value, and there are three horses worth considering at a significant price.
Code of Honor Kentucky Derby Odds
| Horse | 2019 Kentucky Derby Odds |
|---|---|
| Code of Honor | +1600 |
*Odds taken 04/20/19
The winner of March’s Fountain of Youth Stakes, because of the way the Florida Derby was run with a slow tempo, he had no legitimate chance in his final Derby prep. The pace should be much more lively in Louisville.
Jockey John Velazquez has won the Kentucky Derby twice. He has made a career out of riding for top trainer Todd Pletcher. It is telling that he opted against Pletcher’s Spinoff to ride for Shug Mcgaughey here. McGaughey trained Orb to the Kentucky Derby in 2003, and clearly Johnny V thinks his horse, Code of Honor, might get them in the winner’s circle again.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IIL3oZhi7XQ
By My Standards Kentucky Derby Odds
| Horse | 2019 Kentucky Derby Odds |
|---|---|
| By My Standards | +2500 |
It took this colt four races to finally win, but he liked it so much that he turned around and scored at 22/1 in the Louisiana Derby. There is something to be said for getting hot at the right time, and horses mature at different rates. His dad, Goldencents, twice won the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile, and finished 17th in the Kentucky Derby.
War of Will Kentucky Derby Odds
| Horse | 2019 Kentucky Derby Odds |
|---|---|
| War of Will | +2500 |
He went off as the 4/5 favorite in the Louisiana Derby and finished ninth after taking several awkward strides early on and really having no chance after that. The race is a toss out in terms of handicapping, we learned little on a day where things went astray for him.
War of Will won three straight races including the Risen Star Stakes.
Prior to Louisiana, War of Will was considered among the Kentucky Derby favorites. He had won three straight races including the Risen Star Stakes. If he returns to his form from January and February he should be dangerous. The odds are too high based on just a single poor race.
How to Bet Longshots
When it comes to betting on futures, only a win bet is available. However, as the race gets closer many options will be on the table. Betting a price horse to place (finish first or second) or show (first, second, or third) is not bad because they will still pay a decent amount just to hit the board.
Using longshots as a part of exotic bets (exacta, trifecta) could also be wise. If you can target a longshot who you think will run well, you can bet him along with some other horses you like and say a favorite wins but your longshot finishes second, cash a very profitable exacta.
Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.
