Rebel Stakes Prediction & Odds – Verifying Favored in 50-point Kentucky Derby Qualifier
- The $1 Million Grade 2 Rebel Stakes is Saturday at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas
- On paper this is the most competitive Kentucky Derby prep race thus far
- Reincarnate is the only graded stakes winner in a very competitive field. See all of the Rebel Stakes odds here
There is no massive favorite in Saturday’s Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, and few if any of the 11-horse field look completely outmatched. With 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points on the line for the winner, the $1 million event may be the most interesting of our Run for the Roses preps thus far. We have the Rebel Stakes odds and picks here.
Some of the best horses of the last couple of decades won the Rebel. In 2015 American Pharoah tasted victory on the way to becoming the first Triple Crown winner in nearly four decades. Derby winner Smarty Jones, and Preakness champ Looking at Lucky won the Rebel. In 2007 Curlin was the victor. He went on to capture the Preakness, Breeders Cup Classic, and Dubai World Cup.
Let’s look closely at this year’s Rebel Stakes, considering the top contenders, and factoring in value as we make a Rebel Stake prediction.
2023 Rebel Stakes Odds
| Horse | Odds |
|---|---|
| Verifying | +200 |
| Giant Mischief | +250 |
| Reincarnate | +350 |
| Gun Pilot | +800 |
| Red Route One | +1000 |
| Confidence Game | +1500 |
| Frosted Departure | +2000 |
| Powerful | +2000 |
| Bourbon Bash | +2000 |
| Talladega | +3000 |
| Event Detail | +3000 |
In the Rebel Stakes odds above you can see that Verifying is favored at +200 odds, followed by Giant Mischief at +250, and Reincarnate at +350. Everyone else is at least +800. Odds as of February 24.
The Rebel will be run at 6:23 pm EST Saturday. The mile-and-a-sixteenth feature event began in the early 1960s. Temperatures at Oaklawn Park are expected to be in the mid-50s with about a 20% chance of rain. Fox Sports 2 will televise the race.
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The winner of The Rebel gets 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points. The second-place finisher earns 20 points. Whoever is third receives 15 points, with fourth place in line for 10 points, and fifth across the line awarded five points. The winner will surely see their Kentucky Derby odds go down after the race.
Let’s look at the Rebel Stakes picks to win here.
Brad Cox With Two Rebel Stakes Favorites
Trainer Brad Cox grew up a short walk from Churchill Downs. He “won” the Kentucky Derby two years ago, but it didn’t really feel that way. Mandaloun finished second but was awarded the victory months later when Medina Spirit was disqualified for having illegal drugs in his system.
Cox, who has won eight Breeders Cup races and two Triple Crown events, has already seen Derby contenders Hit Show, and Instant Coffee win Derby preps this month. However, Victory Formation did not run well in last week’s Risen Star Stakes.
He has two big chances on Saturday. Cox’s Verifying has two wins in four starts. The losses are both in Grade 1 races. His 2023 debut was a dandy at Oaklawn six weeks ago.
Verifying’s win was flattered when Gun Pilot came back to romp in a similar race on February 4. If Verifying repeats his most recent effort, he will be tough on Saturday.
Cox also conditions second choice Giant Mischief. He won his debut at Horseshoe Indiana in September, and then beat top optional claimers at Keeneland in November. He broke poorly, made a big move, and rallied to finish second in a stakes race at Remington Park in mid-December.
Isn’t “Bob Baffert” the Best?
For a second straight year because of his involvement in the Medina Spirit situation, six-time Derby winner Bob Baffert is not allowed to participate in the Run for the Roses. In order to have his horses compete, they have been temporarily transferred to other trainers.
Tim Yakteen is now conditioning Reincarnate. After needing four races to break his maiden, Reincarnate pulled a big upset in January’s Sham Stakes.
Not only did Reincarnate win the Sham, before getting injured Newgate returned to win a key Derby prep. Reincarnate started his career on turf, but each of his three dirt tries has been better than the last.
Steve Asmussen Is Mr 10,000
Trainer Steve Asmussen became the first North American trainer with 10,000 wins earlier this week. Though he has won six Breeders Cup races and three Triple Crown events, Asmussen is still seeking his first Derby victory.
Asmussen’s trio in the Rebel includes Gun Pilot, Red Route One, and Powerful. Gun Pilot was no match for Verifying in January but impressively returned to win on February 4, beating Bourbon Bash in the process. Gun Pilot is the son of Breeders Cup Classic winner Gun Runner.
Red Route One has faced the best competition among the contenders in the Rebel. Since breaking his maiden on turf in September, he has run in four graded-stakes races on dirt. In November he only missed by a length and a half against Instant Coffee at Churchill Downs, and his 2023 debut was a runner-up effort to the unbeaten Arabian Knight. He also is the son of Gun Runner.
Powerful has run well in three of four starts. Like Red Route One, he was not competitive at a big price in a Grade 1 event at Keeneland in October. He hasn’t raced since winning the Ed Brown Stakes in November. His only try going two turns was his weakest effort.
Rebel Stakes Prediction
If you are playing for value in the Rebel Stakes odds, Gun Pilot feels like the one. He has run well in two of three starts and is in great form. However, Verifying beat him rather easily when they raced against each other.
Horses often take a big step forward in their seasonal debuts, and that makes Giant Mischief scary. He has a legitimate excuse for his only loss and has been off for two months entering the Rebel. That said, is he more of a sprinter than router?
Reincarnate is sensible too for your Rebel Stakes picks, but debuting on grass leads you to believe the connections aren’t sure he really wants dirt, and Yakteen is not Baffert.
Rebel Stakes Picks: Giant Mischief (+250)
Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.
