Saratoga & Del Mar Odds & Picks for Breeders Cup Win & You’re In Races (Aug 27-28)
- Three automatic bids to November’s Breeders Cup will be won this weekend
- On Saturday Saratoga has the Grade 1 Sword Dancer and Del Mar features the G2 Pat O’Brien
- The Grade 1 Ballerina at Saratoga is slated for Sunday. Who will earn berths to the championships this weekend?
Horse racing in the United States generally has three seasons. The run-up to the Kentucky Derby and Triple crown portion of the calendar, the outstanding and high-end summer racing season, and the year-end Breeders Cup where champions are crowned.
The Breeders Cup Win and You’re In Challenge schedule provides horses opportunities to secure a berth to the celebration at the end of the year. This year’s Breeders Cup is the first weekend of November at Keeneland, in Lexington, KY.
Check out the latest Breeders Cup odds. Sometimes there is value in getting your bet in early before prices move.
This weekend three races are Breeders Cup qualifiers. Saturday the Grade 1 $750,000 Sword Dancer at Saratoga is a turf marathon with the winner earning a berth in the BC Turf. The seven-furlong Grade 2 $250,000 Pat O’Brien at Del Mar leads to the BC Dirt Mile. The Grade 1 half million dollar Ballerina Sunday at Saratoga is an opportunity to get into the BC Filly and Mare Sprint for the ladies running seven furlongs at The Spa.
Let’s look at the fields and consider where we can find betting value on the road to the Breeders Cup.
2022 Sword Dancer Stakes Odds
| Horse | Odds |
|---|---|
| Broome | +300 |
| Adhamo | +350 |
| Gufo | +450 |
| Tribhuvan | +500 |
| Channel Maker | +800 |
| Rockemperor | +800 |
| Mira Mission | +1200 |
| Cross Border | +1500 |
| Soldier Rising | +1500 |
| Cold Hard Cash | +3000 |
Odds as of August 25
A terrific field is assembled for this three-turn turf marathon scheduled to be run at 5:05pm EST and televised by Fox.
The Breeders Cup Win and You’re In races vary from site, to distance, to surface. It is a good idea to know about betting on different types of horse races.
Let’s look carefully at this competitive group.
Sword Dancer Stakes Contenders
The co-favorites are Irish-bred Broome and Adhamo. Half the field in the Sword Dancer were born in Europe.
Broome is making his second North American appearance. A winner of nearly $2 million, the six-year-old is trained by top European conditioner Aidan O’Brien and ridden by his main man, Ryan Moore. Broome finished fourth in July against top-level competition at Royal Ascot, after beating a good but not great field in June.
Broome ran second in the Breeders Cup Turf last year. He earned a 104 Beyer Speed figure for the runner-up effort.
Adhamo earned a 104 Beyer in his win last month at Monmouth Park.
That was Adhamo’s first win in four races in the U.S. after a strong but not spectacular couple years racing in France. Three of his four races this year in America have been impressive.
Gufo was rolling late, finishing fifth in the United Nations. While he was more than two lengths behind Adhamo, he was going best at the end and has preferred the mile-and-a-half distance around three turns in his career.
Tribhuvan will try to steal the race from the start, as he did in the Manhattan at Belmont Park in June. Channel Maker, a winner of $3.6 million, may sit just off Tribhuvan and get the first opportunity to accelerate and hold off the closers.
Sword Dancer Pick
Broome has consistently faced the best competition, and Adhamo is in strong form. Gufo appears to be a horse for the course. He loves Saratoga, winning this event last year, and this is his preferred distance. The betting value is ample.
Pick: Gufo (+450)
2022 Pat O’Brien Stakes Odds
| Horse | Odds |
|---|---|
| Speaker’s Corner | +150 |
| Laurel River | +500 |
| Get Her Number | +600 |
| American Theorem | +600 |
| Defunded | +800 |
| C Z Rocket | +1000 |
| Principe Carlo | +1400 |
| Restrainedvegence | +2500 |
| The Chosen Vron | +3300 |
| Senor Buscador | +5000 |
Trainer Bob Baffert has won the Pat O’Brien a record seven times and has two chances on Saturday. The question for Baffert, and all other competitors, will be can anybody catch Speaker’s Corner?
Pat O’Brien Stakes Top Contenders
Speaker’s Corner won three straight races to begin the year, going wire-to-wire or close to it in each of the events. His win in the Carter Handicap was as impressive as anybody has seen this year.
After two months off, Speaker’s Corner has faced arguably the two best horses in the country since returning to the track. He was third against Flightline in June, and second to Life Is Good in July.
Baffert’s Laurel River is lightly raced. He hasn’t been tested yet but dominated lesser competition last time out.
A winner of two straight, Laurel River should be forwardly placed. His last two races are strong but not as fast as Speaker’s Corner’s recent efforts.
Baffert also has Defunded. If you can excuse his seventh-place effort against Grade 2 competition last time, and he was uncomfortable in the gate and out of sorts a bit, his previous two races are better than Laurel River’s. He also wants to run near the front. Cutting back from longer races may help his chances.
American Theorem ran huge off a layoff to win the Grade 1 Bing Crosby last time out.
A repeat of that effort, rallying into a fast pace, could be perfect. American Theorem has only run two races good enough to compete with this group. They are his last two tries.
C Z Rocket won this race in 2020. The eight-year-old likes to come from behind, but his last few races seem to show him not running as fast as he used to. The back class is present. His best races are competitive.
Pat O’Brien Pick
This pick is all about value. Speaker’s Corner is the best horse, but has beaten a total of four horses in his last two races and may be engaged in a speed duel. Defunded is an interesting longshot, but he too could be spent upfront. American Theorem is in great form and could get the perfect setup.
Pick: American Theorem (+600)
2022 Ballerina Stakes Odds
| Horse | Odds |
|---|---|
| Ce Ce | +200 |
| Bella Sofia | +350 |
| Obligatory | +350 |
| Goodnight Olive | +500 |
| Lady Rocket | +600 |
| Caramel Swirl | +800 |
| Travel Column | +1200 |
Six of seven horses are graded stakes winners with three having earned Grade 1 victories. Breeders Cup winner Ce Ce is a deserving favorite and could sit perfectly off a quick early pace.
Ballerina Stakes Top Contenders
Ce Ce won four of six races last year including the Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Sprint.
This year she is two for four, with the second setback running longer against top-tier horses. She beat a lesser field first off the layoff last month at Gulfstream Park.
Bella Sofia was fourth in the Breeders Cup against Ce Ce, and this year has won two of three tries.
She wasn’t at her best last month at Saratoga, but six wins in nine career starts, including the Grade 1 Test, suggest her best is good enough to win this.
Obligatory was just behind Bella Sofia at Belmont Park in June. Her previous three races were victories.
Lady Rocket has won three straight races on dry surfaces. If you toss two losses in the mud, though she has never beaten this caliber, her early speed could be tough to catch.
Ballerina Stakes Pick
Ce Ce is the most likely winner and should benefit from Lady Rocket and Bella Sofia going at each other early. Ce Ce is very tough in one-turn races and is not facing Letruska or Clairiere or Gamine, the best of the best, in this one.
Pick: Ce Ce (+200)
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Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.
