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MLB Favored to Be First Sports League to Resume Play

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in News

Updated Apr 6, 2020 · 10:54 AM PDT

Major League Baseball Opening Day.
Will Major League Baseball be the first league to return to action after the COVD-19 outbreak? Photo by U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Chad M. Trudeau (Wikimedia).
  • Almost every major sporting event has been put on pause or has been canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic
  • The CDC has stated that they recommend all events of 50 people or more be stopped for eight weeks
  • Which major sport will be the first to return to action?

On Sunday, we got a rough timeline from the CDC recommending that all gatherings of 50 people or more are stopped for eight weeks to try and curb the spread of COVID-19.

If so, that gives us an idea as to when we might see sports again. Major League Baseball is favored to be the first to return to action at +175, with the NHL a close second on the board at +180.

Odds on Which Major Sport Will Return to Action First

Which League Will Be First To Play? Odds
MLB +175
NHL +180
NBA +250
MLS +400

Odds taken Mar. 16.

May 10th Appears to Be Earliest Possible Start Date

If we’re simply doing the math and projecting out based on the dates, it looks like May 10th – or in that range – might be the earliest that we’re looking at getting sports back in action. That could mean that sports return without fans in the audience, with limited staff or in alternate venues.

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Of course, that assumes that COVID-19 starts to show signs of receding. We’ve seen how quickly the virus can spread in China, Italy and now Spain, and the United States appears to be just ramping up. If that’s the case, this guidance from the CDC is likely to extend.

NBA Reports Suggest June Return

Although we really haven’t heard much from the leagues, whispers from the NBA suggest a mid-to-late June return in a best-case scenario. In other words, they’re not even going by what the CDC is suggesting; they expect things to get much worse before they get any better.

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ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported on Monday that the league is telling the owners and executives to prepare for a three-month hiatus at a minimum. If that’s accurate, that means action will be slated to return right around mid-June.

NHL’s Best-Case Scenario Is April 15th Return

The NHL is currently on a one-month hiatus, so their best-case scenario is a return on April 15th. Given all that we know now, that seems incredibly optimistic. However, the idea with this one-month break is to see where we are in terms of the numbers of people sick and whether the virus has peaked or not.

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What’s more realistic is that games return around May 1st, but given what we know from the NBA, would the NHL really aim to return ahead of them and buck the CDC recommendation? Unlikely.

That means that they’re still looking at mid-May at-best if everything goes right. Their timeline is very likely the same as the NBA.

What’s the Best Bet?

It’s hard to say why MLB is favored here. Is it possible that it’s because their games are mostly played in open-air venues and they could return to start play without their fans? The thing is, this is a very fluid, rapidly changing situation and so are the odds, so betting a favorite in this spot might not make sense.

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I would actually bet on the NBA here at +250 because their commissioner, Adam Silver, seems like the most intelligent, advanced commissioner of the four sports on the board. He won’t put the players at risk but he’s an innovative leader. He’s very plugged in and will try to get his league back in action as soon as possible.

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