Mets’ Pete Alonso Soaring Up NL MVP Odds Board

NL MVP odds
Pete Alonso hit 53 home runs en route to winning the 2019 NL Rookie of the Year. Can he follow up a brilliant freshman season by winning the NL MVP in 2020? Photo by slgckgc (Flickr).
  • Mets first baseman Pete Alonso has seen his odds of winning the 2020 NL MVP shortened over the last two weeks, moving from an average of +3900 to +3400
  • At some sportsbooks, Alonso’s odds have moved to +2500, making him the 11th highest-ranked favorite
  • Is Alonso worthy of a wager at his new price?

Pete Alonso certainly had a 2019 season for the ages. With 53 home runs, he surpassed Aaron Judge’s rookie home run record, and also finished with 120 RBI en route to winning the National League rookie of the year award.

Alonso will be hoping to build on that in 2020, by not only helping the New York Mets back to the playoffs, but potentially winning the NL MVP award too. He has seen his position in the 2020 NL MVP odds improve of late, as his odds have been shortened to +2500 at some sportsbooks.

2020 NL MVP Odds

Player Odds
Mookie Betts (Dodgers) +350
Ronald Acuna Jr. (Braves) +450
Christian Yelich (Brewers) +700
Cody Bellinger (Dodgers) +1000
Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres) +1000
Juan Soto (Nationals) +1000
Bryce Harper (Phillies) +1400
Nolan Arenado (Rockies) +1400
Freddie Freeman (Braves) +2000
Javier Baez (Cubs) +2200
Pete Alonso (Mets) +2500
Kris Bryant (Cubs) +2800
Paul Goldschmidt (Cardinals) +3000
Trevor Story (Rockies) +3300
Manny Machado (Padres) +3500

Odds taken on Feb. 29th

Room For Improvement

While his 2019 season will be tough to match, Alonso still has room to improve in a number of areas. On the defensive side of the ball, for instance, the Mets star has been putting in extra work this spring to bring his skills up to par with his rivals.

According to FanGraphs, Alonso was minus-6 in defensive runs saved in 2019, while fellow first baseman – and NL Gold Glove winner – Anthony Rizzo was plus-3 in that department.

An Unlikely Encore

As good as 2019 was for Pete Alonso offensively, it makes the odds of him repeating his heroics at the plate all the more unlikely. As a rookie, it was the first time many major-league pitchers had ever pitched to him, so he won’t benefit from the unknown quantity in his second season in the majors.

However, for him to have a chance to take home MVP honors, he doesn’t necessarily have to repeat his 53-home run season of a year ago, but getting 40+ (reigning MVP Cody Bellinger’s 47-home run 2019 season is a good marker) would do his chances no harm whatsoever.

A Better Mets Team

What likely will give Alonso his best chance of winning the MVP will simply be a better team around him. In the last 22 seasons, the NL MVP has only come from a non-playoff team on six occasions.

The Mets weren’t too far off the mark in 2019, but a slow start to the season doomed them to running an uphill battle the rest of the way. But after the All-Star break, the team was winning games at a .639 clip, averaging 5.2 runs in those 72 games. Given the caliber of the pitching rotation, which includes Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman, that kind of offensive production will go a long way to winning ball games.

The Competition

As might be expected for a team that is expected to cruise into the playoffs for an eighth straight season, the Los Angeles Dodgers will be fielding multiple MVP candidates on a nightly basis. Newcomer Mookie Betts is the favorite to win the NL MVP at +350, having won the AL version with the Boston Red Sox in 2018.

But he will be competing against new teammate and reigning NL MVP Bellinger (+1000) for that honor, and there is always the possibility that the presence of two high-caliber MVP candidates simply splits the vote.

On a competitive Mets team, Alonso’s +2500 odds represent great value.

Pick: Alonso (+2500)

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